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Weekly market brief: 27 November - 1 December 2023

Updated: Dec 17, 2023

In this weekly market brief we write our forecast for financial markets for the week ahead
Aspettative indici finanziari: Novembre - Dicembre

Positive week on the US markets, while on the European ones of substantial parity.

In Europe, the divergence between the FTSE100 and the main European indices persists: a phenomenon mainly due to a strengthening of the British pound while the

DAX40 and FTSEMIB appear to be aimed at new highs, with the Italian index poised to break at 29,700 (YTD +25%).

Encouraging performance for American indices that appear to be targeting the following targets:

  • S&P 500 at $4,800

  • Dow Jones Industrial at $37,000

  • Nasdaq 100 to $17,000

It is desirable to expect a possible retracement in the next few sessions given the strong recovery in recent weeks and a VIX still squeezed at $12-13. After the reversal, the typical positivity of the end of the year could return to the field.

The Hang Seng index continues to underperform, slightly above parity on a weekly basis, but we confirm a positive short- to medium-term outlook.

The markets in the Middle East, despite a still very high geopolitical risk, are recovering and continue to be at attractive levels of purchase.

The risk indicators are now very extensive and in favor of a possible consolidation of the markets: despite this we identify as a short-term target for UUP quota $ 28.50.

S&P500 shares above 50MA (S5FI) now at $76.14 are now in the sales area.

To conclude, we believe the strong recovery of the last few weeks can continue even in the final of the year: slight market outstages will not stid the Christmas playlist.

We continue to monitor the following indicators:

  • The volatility index (VIX) at $12.54 could regain strength

  • Index Bullish Fund (UUP) at $29.21 could drop further

  • US 10Y Treasuries (US10Y) at 4.472%, could fall further after a recovery

  • S&P shares above 50MA (S5FI) at $76.15 are now in the sales area

Federal reserve interest rate hikes probabilities
Invesco USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP): Target di prezzo, grafico settimanale

Market brief is part of OTB NEWS

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