Commodities analysis

GOLD: Higher lows

Long-term uptrend with strong resistance at $ 1,830

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After reaching $ 2,075, gold gradually retraced to form a strong at $ 1,682.

After the peak reached in August 2020, we can see a wide lateralization of the precious metal between $ 1,915 and $ 16.82. Since August 2021, gold has reported rising lows in the price action and is now at the test of the strong resistance at $ 1,830 which could eventually lead to reaching the top of the channel.

MACD and RSI reflect the upward trend of recent months: in fact, the first exceeded the 0 threshold at the end of December and has been reporting rising lows since March 2021, supporting the thesis of a momentum recovery. The RSI is also on the upside, above the threshold of 50 (bullish).

If we apply the Fibonacci levels to the retracement started in August 2020, we can see a significant respect for the most important percentages: 38.2% the current resistance and 61.8% the possible short-medium term target.

In a longer term perspective, with a weekly chart, we can see the consolidation of gold between $ 1,700-1,800 with a recent overcome of the 50-day average which in the past marked the beginning of bullish periods.

On the weekly chart, it is possible to understand the importance of the level at $ 1.830 from a second point of view: this level, in addition to playing the role of short-term resistance in the daily chart, represents on the weekly chart the possible break of the current bearish trendline. from September 2020.

Just as in the daily, also in the weekly MACD and RSI reflect the recovery of vigour of the precious metal par excellence. MACD is recording rising lows and has broken out of the 0 line, indicating positive momentum. RSI recovering and above 50

By combining the daily and weekly charts, we can see the bullish trend of gold

In the short term, we expect the current resistance to break and reach $ 1,900. In the medium to long term, we estimate a possible achievement of $ 2,000 in Q3 2022.

Price estimates
Q1 - Q2 2022	$ 1.900
Q3 2022	$ 2.000

Conclusions

Combining a short-term analysis on the daily chart and a longer view on the weekly chart, we believe that gold is close to strong price moves.

If exceeded, the $ 1,830 level could result in a significant upside in the price of the precious metal.

Through the weekly chart it is possible to appreciate the strong bullish push that generated a price increase of almost 60% from April 2018 to August 2021. Consequently, the large lateralization of the last year and a half can be read as a consolidation/accumulation phase before a further extension.

In the long term, we therefore maintain a positive outlook and mention 4 ETFs available on Borsa Italiana and which have exposure to gold:

OTB Global Investments

18 January 2022