Fundamental analysis: COSTCO (#COST)

Costco Wholesale Corporation #COST is the world's largest self-service club-type warehouse chain. The company is one of the largest retailers in the world: 674 warehouse stores in different countries, including 474 in America.


Growth factors:

  • For the period from March 1 to April 4, the company's revenue amounted to $ 18.21 billion (an increase of 17.6%). Like-for-like sales increased 16%.

  • Consumer traffic in international operations and in the US grew by 3.3% and 3%, respectively.

  • Analysts predict earnings per share in 2021 at $ 10.29. EPS forecast for Q3 was $ 2.23, below the consensus of $ 2.25.

  • Stable financial position of the company.

  • Historically strong store traffic and membership renewals are driving Costco's growth.

  • The company looks attractive due to its financial strength and high customer traffic. It may also outperform the market against the background of the opening of the economy.


Financial indicators:

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate: COST's forecast earnings growth (8.8% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

  • Below Fair Value: COST ($372.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($531.31)

  • Significantly Below Fair Value: COST is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

  • Short Term Liabilities: COST's short term assets ($26.3B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($26.6B)

  • Long Term Liabilities: COST's short term assets ($26.3B) exceed its long term liabilities ($12.2B).

  • Debt Level: COST's debt to equity ratio (45.6%) is considered high.

  • Debt Coverage: COST's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (120%)

  • Interest Coverage: COST's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (54.3x coverage)


✅ Costco #COST

🎯 Target price - $ 410, upside potential + 10%

OTB Global Investments

13 May 2021



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