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Market brief: 13 - 17 November 2023

In this weekly market brief we write our forecast for financial markets for the week ahead
Financial indices forecast: 13 - 17 November 2023
Weekly market brief: Let it go

Overall positive week across markets with US peers that surge during the Friday session.

In Europe, we see a slight divergence between indices such as the #FTSEMIB and #DAX40 compared with the #FTSE100: the latter one, still moving around 4,000 seems to offer a better risk/reward ratio for the near future with #GBP/USD still between 1.22-1.24.

In regards to US peers, the Friday performance lifted the mood after the Thursday #Fed’s indecision show: markets keep pricing in a ”higher for longer” scenario with no particular changes.

It is important to notice that the major US markets are now all above their #50MA, opening the door for a positive short term outlook.

Hang Seng Index keeps being the underperformed, down - 2.6% on a weekly basis, but there are good assumptions supporting a recovery in price there too.

Middle East markets recovered part of the strength that was given up the last weeks: despite a geopolitical risk still very high, it could be reasonable to start to build up a long term position on those markets.

Risk proxies keep being in favour of a rebound: the #UUP is loosing its strength and a drop to $29.40 could favour markets. US 10Y #Treasuries are now surfing on the 4.600% level and we do not rule out a further weakening.

S&P500 stocks above the 50MA (#S5FI) now at $48.70, which was again spotted the bottom at the end of October, might consolidate sideways.

To conclude, the recovery in prices is a very positive indicator: in the coming week, we might expect a consolidation given prior gains to then keep moving higher.

We have been very extended to the downside in last month which, coupled with seasonality, might open the way for a positive end of the year rally.

We keep monitoring the following indicators:

  • The Volatility index (VIX) Index at $14.18 could regain strength

  • Index Bullish Fund (UUP) at $20.84 could fall further

  • US 10Y Treasuries (US10Y) at 4.652%, may descend further after a recovery

  • S&P shares above 50MA (S5FI) at $48.70 might consolidate sideways

Federal reserve interest rate hikes probabilities
Federal Reserve: Meeting probabilities

Market brief is part of OTB NEWS

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