Technical analysis
Price | € 178.25 | 52 Weeks range | € 172.20 - € 217.20 |
Beta | 0.48 | Volume/ average | 225.761/ 473.779 |
Sector | Consumer discretionary | Dividend | 1.90% |
Pernod Ricard is a French company and the second largest seller of wine and spirits in the world
RI after the highs of € 216 reached in January 2022 has begun a gradual descent that has brought now the stock to an interesting support area: we believe that at the moment the stock is at a crossroads between an upside reversal or a bearish continuation.
Price
Analizzando l’oscillazioni di prezzo possiamo accorgerci come l’area tra €170-180.00 rappresenti una forte area di supporto e che ha giocato il ruolo di resistenza durante il 2019-2020.
E’ proprio per questo motivo che crediamo RI sia un titolo da monitorare attentamente: un suo ipotetico rimbalzo potrebbe riportare il prezzo a quota € 200.00 nel breve termine. In alternativa, la rottura del supporto attuale porterebbe il titolo a raggiungere velocemente l’area intorno ai € 160.00, come anche suggerito dal Volume Profile
Indicators
Looking at the MACD and RSI indicators: both show a positive divergence with the price action. MACD continues to be very extended to the downside but slightly improved when compared to the lows of March 2022.
RSI is also showing rising lows and we can see a bearish trendline in place since April which could give us more direction in the short term.
On the weekly chart, we find price indecision also in internal indicators: MACD close to crossing downwards (bearish moment) and a quite low RSI but still not in oversold territory. The latter almost seems to suggest the possibility of further downside pressure.
Moving averages
We believe that the strong watershed for short-term price action is in this case the 9MA (red line): in recent months the latter has played the role of "dynamic resistance", rejecting any possible break to the upside.
On a weekly basis we want to emphasise that the 200MA (green line) is between € 160-165.00 and that it could represent an excellent reversal area in the near future. In fact, since 2010, the 200MA has acted as support.
Conclusions
At current prices, we believe that RI will soon be able to offer more indications on its medium-term direction and that is why we believe it is a very interesting stock to start monitoring.
From an operational point of view, we believe there are two optimal entry bands: the first which assumes a trend reversal on the current support at € 170-180.00 and consolidation above the 9MA in the area of € 182- 186.00.
The second option instead sees a further downside and reconciliation with the 200MA in the area between € 160-150.00. Once consolidated, an adequate entry range could be between € 160-165.00.
We currently set conservative targets at € 200 and 215.00
Macro-economic context available on request
Entry range € 182,00 - € 186,00
Target 1 € 200,00
Target 2 € 215,00
Stop loss € 160,00
Entry range € 160,00 - € 165,00
Target 1 € 200,00
Target 2 € 215,00
Stop loss € 130,00
Graphs
OTB Global Investments
26 May 2022
댓글