💡15 - 20 February 2021
📈 FTSE 100: 6,624.02 ( +0.03%)
📈 FTSEMIB: 23.136.31 ( -1.78%)
📈 DAX: 13,993.23 ( - 0.76%)
📈 S&P 500: 3,906.71 ( - 0.11%)
📈 Nasdaq 100: 13,580.78 ( -0.72 %)
📈 Dow Jones: 31,494.32 ( +0.18%)
The percentage increases are on a weekly basis
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The #UKX had a very strong start of the week, benefiting from higher oil prices, however the enthusiasm fell apart and led the index to close at a neutral +0.03%.
We must say that the #UKX held quite strongly considering how the GBP/USD reached an all time high.
From a technical perspective, as we can see the Index is in bullish context: the upward channel that is taking place since November 2020 is the confirmation.
However, it might be too early to say, but we notice this time that the #UKX by failing to reach previous peak is now forming lower highs, signalling a potential change of trend.
As a result, while the RSI didn’t move much since last readings the MACD is giving us the impression that the index is loosing its momentum: a fall below 0 would confirm moves to the downside.
As mentioned on the previous market brief, the #UKX finished on the 50MA with a doji candle. For the week ahead, we believe the breath is still to the downside however, given the fall of these last trading days, the Index might eventually rebound to 6,700 before keep going lower.
If the Index managed to fall below the 50MA, we will target 6,500.
Support 6,462 and resistance 6,642.
The #FTSEMIB, among the indexes we cover, had the worse week down -1.78% where despite a positive start, it retraced back.
From a technical perspective, the #FTSEMIB is now below the 9MA which in the past led to further moves to the downside.
Despite no clear path, we believe the breath is still to the downside: this is supported by a MACD that is strongly suggesting a reversal and loss of momentum.
However, given the strength of the 50MA we target for the moment 22,500 before considering moves in either directions.
Support at 22,380 and resistance at 23,435
The #DAX had a modest negative week down - 0.76% from last readings. The German Index has been moved sideways from the beginning of the month: this brought the 50MA to keep going higher and it is now representing a very strong support level.
From a technical perspective, the MACD is almost flat however is signalling a potential reversal to the upside. On the other side, the RSI is giving a light divergence with the price.
For the week ahead, given the indecision of the indicators and consolidation move that has been taking place, we believe the #DAX will continue to move sideways. A break of current support and resistance would confirm a move in either directions.
Support at 13,756 and resistance at 14,127
S&P 500 (#SPX)
The #SPX this week was almost flat, reporting a slight decline of -0.11%: energy and banking sectors initially brought the index to test resistance level but then reversed to the downside.
From a technical perspective, the #SPX is still in bullish context within the upward channel and on the higher half of it. However, a close below the 9MA together with a MACD signalling an imminent reverse leading us to think that the Index is due to fall lower. In addition the RSI is still reporting strong divergence with the price.
Therefore, for the week ahed we see a retest of current support. A close below 3,871 would signal a potential retest of the 50MA.
Support 3,871 and resistance at 3,942
NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)
The #NDX had a negative week closing -0.72% from our last readings: as highlighted in the previous article, the Tech Index retraced from all time high testing the 13,600 level.
Based on the history of the chart, the Index has often bounced back from the intermediate level of the upward channel: however, this time we believe the scenario could different because the #NDX is below the 9MA.
From a technical perspective, the MACD has crossed over signalling a potential move to the downside. Not much is given by the RSI, a part from te fact that is now leaving overbought territory.
For the coming week, giving the combination of few bearish factors we believe the #SPX could test current support at 13,400.
Support 13,400 and resistance at 13,879
Dow Jones (#DJI)
The #DJI had an almost flat week, up 0.18% from our last reading: the index has been moved sideways within current support and resistance level.
From a technical perspective, the #DJI is now sitting on the 9MA with a reversal looking type candle: at present the 31,251 represents a strong level of support that hold for the last 9 trading days.
The RSI is reporting a divergence with the price but most important is what is happening on with MACD: in fact, the MACD, like in other major US indexes, is signalling a potential cross over.
For the week ahead we believe the Index may retest current support level, a break below it would confirm a further move to the downside.
Support 31,251 and resistance 31,643
OTB Global Investments
London, 21 February 2021