Financial index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
FTSE100 | 7,423 | Consolidation | 7,300 | 7,470 | 7,100 | 7,620 |
FTSEMIB | 22,405 | Consolidation | 20,000 | 23,650 | 20,260 | 25,000 |
DAX 40 | 13,484 | Consolidation | 12,600 | 14,050 | 12,000 | 14,460 |
S&P 500 | 4,130 | Consolidation | 3,950 | 4,175 | 3,740 | 4,370 |
NASDAQ 100 | 12,948 | Consolidation | 12,400 | 13,500 | 11,100 | 14,255 |
DOW JONES | 32,845 | Consolidation | 32,000 | 34,000 | 30,000 | 35,400 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week up by + 2.02%
For the coming week we could see a consolidation in the area between 7,300 - 7,400
Indicators
Positive week for the British index which managed to break above the 50MA (yellow line): we consider this a positive bullish sign for the short-medium term.
MACD and RSI support the push of the UKX: the former has broken out of the 0 line (positive momentum) and the latter is now in a strong resistance area.
We remain positive on the FTSE100 and look forward to retracements.
Support at 7,300
Resistance at 7.470
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week up by +5.63%
For the week ahead we could see a consolidation in the area of 22,000
Indicators
A very positive week for the Italian index that breaks the medium-long term bearish trendline: further confirmation will come when the 50MA (yellow line) will be exceeded.
The two gaps created in the last two days are positive but at the same time they have brought the price outside the upper Bollinger band: as often happens, this can then lead the price to bearish swings aimed at "filling" these gaps that we see at 22,000 and 21,500.
MACD and RSI are both recovering with the former close to a breakout of the 0 line (bullish momentum) and the latter now lying on a strong resistance area.
We remain positive on the FTSEMIB and believe that the index could retrace before continuing higher.
Support at 20,700
Resistance at 23,650
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX ended the week up by +1.74%
For the coming week we could see a consolidation in the area of 13,300-13,400
Indicators
The upsides continue on the German index which is now on the 50MA (yellow line) and on the upper part of the Bollinger band. Given the strong upward extension, we believe that the price may retrace slightly in order to avoid overbought situations and an unsustainable bullish move to the upside.
MACD and RSI are supporting the push, finding the first near the 0 line (positive momentum) and the second at 60, a strong resistance area tested several times in the past.
We remain positive on the DAX and see a bullish push supported by an increase in volumes
Support at 12,600
Resistance at 14,050
S&P500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 had a week up by + 4.26%
For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation in the area of 4,000 - 4,050
Indicators
Strong week of rises that brought the SPX close to the resistance of May - June 2022. The strong moves to the upside that have just occurred make us exclude a break up of this area and lean more towards a retracement to avoid situations of overbought and unsustainable growth .
MACD and RSI reflect the index positivity with the first above the 0 threshold (positive momentum) and the second very close to the overbought area.
We remain positive on the S&P500 but an almost overbought RSI coupled with strong resistance at 4,150 keeps us cautious and in favour of a retracement.
Support at 3,950
Resistance at 4,175
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week up by + 4.45%
For the week ahead, we believe there may be a retracement to the area of 12,500
Indicators
The week just ended saw the reaching of the intermediate resistance at 13,000: given the strong stretches and the near exit from the Bollinger band, we exclude a bullish continuation up to 13.500 without first seeing a price retracement.
We believe a possible target for this retracement can be identified at 12,500
MACD and RSI support the push of the index and are both very extended upwards: the first is well above 0 and the second has almost reached the overbought area. Still on the RSI, we see a tight uptrend channel that almost seems to suggest a possible very short-term downside.
We remain positive on the NASDAQ100 and despite expecting a possible retracement
Support at 12,400
Resistance at 13,500
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES had a week up by +2.97%
For the coming week we could see a possible retracement to the area of 32,400
Indicators
The index is now close to the intermediate resistance seen also in May-June 2022. Given the bullish upsides of the week just ended, we exclude a strong continuation to the upside while we are in favor of a possible retracement: this price action could avoid an overbought situation and unstable push.
It is important to note that the price is now outside the Bollinger band and a bearish swing is very likely.
MACD and RSI are supporting the upside of the index with the former well above the 0 threshold (positive momentum) and the RSI very close to the overbought area.
We remain positive on the DOW JONES but look forward to its retracement
Support at 32,000
Resistance 34,000
OTB Global Investments
31 July 2022
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