Index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
FTSE100 | 7.485 | Bearish | 7.405 | 7.520 | 7.330 | 7.570 |
FTSEMIB | 27.618 | Bearish | 27.406 | 27.975 | 26.750 | 28.315 |
DAX 40 | 15.947 | Bearish | 15.736 | 15.980 | 15.040 | 16.290 |
S&P 500 | 4.677 | Consolidation | 4.600 | 4.720 | 4.535 | 4.808 |
NASDAQ 100 | 15.592 | Cons./ Bullish | 15.530 | 16.450 | 15.180 | 16.770 |
DOW JONES | 36.232 | Bearish | 36.000 | 36.565 | 35.350 | 36.815 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week up + 1.45%
For the week, we expect an initial retracement to 7,405 to then continue to 7,330
Indicators
A week that once again saw the 9MA acting as support for the FTSE100, which we still believe is very close to a bearish reversal point.
The bullish channel, in existence since August 2021, suggests a possible trend reversal in the short term.
This theory is also supported by a MACD which is signalling a slight weakening and an RSI very close to the overbought zone.
In particular on the RSI, in addition to the divergence with the price action of early November 2021, the break of the trendline could act as an early sign of bearish pressures.
The primary trend remains bullish but we currently see a risk / return more incline to bearish swings.
Support at 7.405
Resistance at 7,520
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week up + 0.40%
For the week we expect a retracement to at least 27,200
Indicators
Despite the positive week of the Italian index, we believe that in the short term we will see bearish pressures that could lead to an initial test of the 50MA.
The reversal that occurred at 27.975 can be read as a "double top" formation and this week could confirm it.
MACD, despite a higher price than on November 16th, has recorded a lower high.
RSI, in a similar situation, after reaching the overbought zone once again is showing a negative divergence with November levels.
The primary trend is bullish, but the divergences between indicators and prices make us think of bearish pressures in the short term.
Support at 27.406
Resistance at 27,975
DAX (DAX)
The DAX ended the week down -0.05%
For the week ahead, we are in favour of an initial retracement to 15,736 and then to 15,500.
Indicators
The reversal of the German index to 16,290 makes us think of a "double top" formation paired with the levels reached in mid-November 2021.
MACD, despite having reached previous highs, showed a downtrend and a weakening of the momentum.
RSI, in negative divergence with the price, is very close to breaking the trendline: this could be an anticipatory signal of bearish swings in the short term.
Given the divergence between indicators and price, we believe the risk/reward of the DAX pushes to the downside
Support for 15,736
Resistance at 15,980
S&P500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 had a week down by -2.35%
For the coming week, the index could consolidate between 4,600 -4,680
Indicators
The price has now returned to that strong parallel channel between 4,600 and 4,720, in which we expect a consolidation at the bottom area.
The index is now on the 50MA, which on several occasions has played a supporting role for bullish reversals: in this case, we do not expect strong upside reversals but a consolidation and then further retracements.
MACD reversed to the downside and the RSI is now below the 50 level.
A retracement, more than physiological, could lead to interesting entry points for long positions.
Support for 4,600
Resistance at 4,720
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week down -5.21%
For the week ahead, we expect a possible recovery up to 16,000
Indicators
The technological index continues its wide lateralization between 15,330 and 16,450 and in the short term, we could see a recovery till the 50MA.
The indicators are both bearish: MACD has in fact crossed the 0 line and the RSI is now fluctuating at 40, intermediate support.
The substantial stretch in US 10-year yields could lead to a slight retracement during the week, allowing the NASDAQ to recover.
Support at 15,530
Resistance at 16,450
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES had a week down -0.62%
For the week ahead, we expect a bearish continuation till at least 36,000
Indicators
The breach of the 9MA we believe may be the confirmation of possible bearish swings in the short term.
Both MACD and RSI are signalling lower highs, despite a bullish price action: this negative divergence we think will soon lead to a retracement of the DJI.
The first downside target remains close to the 50MA, strong intermediate support.
Despite a primary upward trend, the risk/return is for the moment to the downside.
Support to 36,000
Resistance 36,565
OTB Global Investments
9 January 2022
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