Weekly market brief: 11 - 15 July 2022

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,196	Cons./ Bullish	6,960	7,300	6,830	7,470
FTSEMIB	21,774	Cons./ Bullish	21,000	23,650	20,260	25,00
DAX 40	13,015	Cons./ Bullish	12,600	14,050	12,000	14,460
S&P 500	3,899	Cons./ Bullish	3,740	4,000	3,600	4,370
NASDAQ 100	12,126	Cons./ Bullish	10,700	12,400	9,700	13,500
DOW JONES	31,338	Cons./ Bullish	29,200	32,000	27,560	34,000

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up by + 0.39%

For the coming week we could see a bullish recovery at least to the area of 7.300

Indicators

Despite a broadly flat weekly performance, we believe there has been a very interesting price action as the triple bottom at 7,000 could trigger a short to medium term bullish recovery.

MACD and RSI continue to support the recovery of the index even though both are still in bearish areas (MACD below 0 and RSI below the 50 line). The triple bottom highlighted by the price acted has created a positive divergence with the RSI, which could support price recovery.

The first target to reach is the resistance at 7.300 which, followed by a consolidation, could be broken to the upside.

We are positive on the FTSE100 in the short to medium term.

Support at 6.960

Resistance at 7.300

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up by +1.96%

For the week ahead we could see a gradual rally to at least 22,500 - 23,000

Indicators

The long support area at 21,000 - 21,500 continues to hold the Italian index: this area was in fact respected both at the end of 2021 and in March 2022.

The positive performance this week makes us think of a "bottoming" phase that could soon lead the index to a recovery in strength in the short to medium term.

The first target to be reached is undoubtedly the bearish trendline at 22.500, after that the index could stretch at least up to the 50MA (yellow line) at 23.650.

MACD and RSI suggest an upside scenario as the first is close to an upward crossing of its moving averages and the second is in positive divergence with the price: in the face of a bearish price we have indeed both indicators pointing to the upside.

We remain positive on the FTSEMIB and believe it could soon see short to medium term upside

Support at 21.000

Resistance at 23.650

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up by + 1.58%

For the week ahead we could see a bullish recovery to at least 13,600

Indicators

The very short-term bearish channel continues and, given the strong area of support, it could lead to an upside reversal.

The Friday strong bullish candle makes us lean towards a short-medium term push: a possible consolidation above the 9MA (red line) could further support this thesis.

Once broken the short-term channel, and closed above the 9MA, we believe that a realistic first target could be the 50MA (yellow line) at 13.600.

MACD and RSI we believe to be both in a strong positive divergence with the price: the former is close to an upward crossover and the latter at a decreasing price has in fact registered a bullish price action.

We remain positive on the DAX40 and believe that the index may soon reverse to the upside.

Support at 12.600

Resistance at 14.050

S&P500 (SPX)

The S&P500 had a week up by + 1.94%

For the week ahead, we are in favour of a bullish continuation to at least 4,000

Indicators

We believe the "trading range" between 3.740 and 4.000 is allowing the SPX to consolidate and positioning itself to be able to break to the upside the 50MA (yellow line), which has played the role of dynamic resistance since January 2022.

The positive performance of the week just ended could see a slight retracement and then, in our view, proceed higher.

MACD and RSI are supporting the bullish push: it should be noted that both indicators are close to positively overcome their respective parameters (MACD is in fact very close to exceeding the 0 line and RSI close to break the 50 line).

We remain positive on the S&P500 in the short to medium term

Support at 3.740

Resistance at 4.000

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up by + 4.66%

For the week ahead we believe that the index could stretch to at least 12.800

Indicators

The week just ended seems to form an ascending (bullish) triangle, as if to suggest an imminent break of the resistance and overcome of the 50MA (yellow line).

Despite a bullish setup, we believe that the index may retrace slightly and only after continue higher.

MACD and RSI are supporting the recovery in vigour: the former has crossing their respective averages upwards and is also signalling a positive divergence with the price. The second, RSI, has just crossed the 50 mark (bullish).

It is important to point out the central role played by the 50MA (yellow line) which has represented the main dynamic resistance of the NDX since the beginning of 2022: its break will most likely lead to an upward trend reversal. It will be appropriate to wait for price confirmation in order to avoid "false break" scenarios as at the end of March 2022.

We remain positive on the NASDAQ100 in the short to medium term

Support at 10.700

Resistance at 12.400

DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES had a week up by + 0.77%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a bullish continuation to at least 32,000

Indicators

Despite a weekly positive performance of less than 1%, we believe that the price action was very significant and could open the door for short to medium-term upside.

The fact that the 9MA (red line) is playing the role of dynamic support we believe is a very good indicator of a possible trend change.

MACD and RSI are supporting the bullish recovery of the index, both recording higher lows: the first seems close to breakf the 0 line (positive momentum) and the RSI is very close to overcome the 50 level (bullish)

It is important to note that the main trend remains downward and only a gradual break of the 50MA (yellow line) could lead to a possible change in trend. The price action almost seems to suggest the formation of an ascending triangle (bullish), at the same time it is better to operate with utmost caution to avoid "false breaks" as in March-April 2022.

We remain positive on DOW JONES from a short-medium term perspective

Support at 29.200

Resistance 32.000

OTB Global Investments

10 July 2022