Weekly market brief: 11 - 15 October 2021


Index

Current level

Expectation

S1

R1

S2

R2

​FTSE100

7.095

Bullish

6.980

7.165

6.856

7.220

FTSEMIB

26.051

Bullish

25.554

26.184

24.930

26.750

DAX 40

15.206

Bullish

15.135

15.306

14.967

15.736

S&P 500

4.391

Consolidation

4.390

4.468

4.286

4.545

NASDAQ 100

14.820

Consolidation

14.775

15.152

14.552

15.702

DOW JONES

34.326

Consolidation

34.261

35.096

33.600

35.455

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up + 1.31%

For the week we expect a bullish continuation to 7,165


Indicators

A volatile week for the FTSE which, after testing the support few times, managed to break the intermediate resistance at 7.075 on Friday and close on the 50MA.

MACD is getting closer and closer to the 0 line: exceeding it would confirm the positive momentum of the index.

RSI has held up well at 44 support and may soon support bullish swings.


Combining the recent break of the intermediate resistance at the MACD and RSI indicators, we believe the FTSE may soon hit the 7,165 level.

A slight backtest to 7,050, the 9MA level, could offer additional entry points to benefit from the bullish push.


Support for 6.980

Resistance at 7,165


FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up by + 2.10%

For the week we could see a bullish continuation to 26.184.


Indicators

The index, after bouncing off the trendline, managed to close the week above the 50MA.

MACD has reversed to the upside and is due to crossing the 0 line: this would confirm the change in momentum in the FTSEMIB.

RSI is respecting a bullish formation: in fact, after breaking the trend line on September 22, this was re-tested on September 28 and October 4 and then reversed to the upside.


Combining the price moves with the MACD and RSI indicators, we believe that the index can continue to rise.

The price also seems to want to form an ascending triangle with resistance at 26.184: the index could test the 25.800 level again and then break the resistance to the upside.

In both scenarios, we remain bullish on the FTSEMIB

Support at 25,554

Resistance at 26.184


DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up + 1.06%

For the week ahead, we expect a bullish continuation to 15,500


Indicators

The recovery of the DAX is certainly slower than the other European markets and we believe that this week we could see strong bullish moves.


MACD is about to cross to the upside together with an RSI that is showing a strong divergence with the price: the new low recorded on 6 October did not occur on the indicator. In our view, this will soon lead to bullish swings.

Our target remains the intermediate resistance at 15,500

Support for 15.135

Resistance at 15,306


S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week up by + 0.92%

For the coming week, the index could consolidate between 4,390 and 4,430.


Indicators

The strong recovery of the S&P 500 confirms 4,286 as a strong resistance level. For the week we could expect a slight retracement to the area of the 9MA and then continue upwards to 4,430.


We believe that before exceeding the 50MA, the moving average will be tested few times by the SPX.

MACD is crossing to the upside but still below the 0 line.

RSI is testing resistance at 50, a breakout of it could serve as a leading indicator of bullish swings.


Support at 4.390

Resistance at 4.468


NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up + 1.11%

For the week ahead, we expect a consolidation between 14,775 and 14,500 to then continue higher.


Indicators

This week the index managed to break the bearish trend, reversing strongly to the upside on 6 October. At the moment we believe it can retrace slightly to 14,775 and then continue upwards to at least 14,500: a good consolidation below the 50MA would allow the Nasdaq to avoid overbought formations.


MACD is crossing to the upside and the RSI is testing the intermediate resistance at 48: a break of it could anticipate bullish swings in the short term.


Support for 14.775

Resistance at 15,152


DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES had a week up + 1.10%

For the coming week we expect a consolidation between 34,500 and 35,000


Indicators

The break to the upside this week eliminated the hypothesis of a "bear flag" formation in the Dow Jones, starting instead what we believe to be a bullish recovery.


We could expect a slight retracement to 34,500 at the beginning of the week before reversing to the upside.


MACD crossed to the upside along with the RSI which broke through both the intermediate resistance and the 50 level.

Support for 34.261

Resistance 35,096

OTB Global Investments

10 October 2021

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