Weekly market brief: 12 - 16 September 2022

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,351	Consolidation	7,150	7,500	7,100	7,630
FTSEMIB	22,095	Consolidation	20,700	23,650	20,000	25,000
DAX 40	13,088	Consolidation	12,840	14,000	12,000	14,460
S&P 500	4,067	Consolidation	3,900	4,300	3,740	4,600
NASDAQ 100	12,588	Consolidation	12,400	13,500	11,100	14,255
DOW JONES	32,151	Consolidation	31,200	34,000	30,000	35,100

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up by + 0.96%

For the coming week we could see a consolidation between 7,200 and 7,400

Indicators

Positive week for the FTSE 100 which saw the index respecting the support area at 7.150 and reversing to the upside.

On one hand, this scenario is positive because it is forming a higher price, especially if compared to the period of June-July 2022. On the other one, we believe it's needed to proceed with caution because a June type scenario is still possible: where the reversal on the support level led after to further downside pressure.

MACD and RSI are both improving, the former is close to an upward crossing and the latter is very close to the 50 (bullish) line.

We still remain neutral on the FTSE100 and believe that a retracement to the area of ​​7,200 - 7,250 could offer good opportunities to start a long position.

Support at 7,150

Resistance at 7,500

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up by + 0.79%

For the following week we could see a consolidation in the area of ​​21,600 - 22,400

Indicators

Positive week that despite a substantial consolidation performance, denotes an interesting price action.

Specifically, we believe that the failure to reach new lows in the 20.700 - 20.000 area and instead a continuation on the upper part of the bearish channel are very positive.

However, only a break of 22,400 followed by a consolidation above 23,200 (highs of August 2022) will confirm true the above mentioned hypothesis.

If on the one hand we are encouraged by this scenario, on the other we must not forget the March-April 2022 which saw a similar price action: consolidation with bullish hopes, quickly vanished by further downside pressure in June.

We remain neutral on the FTSEMIB willing to understand if the recent rises will be followed by a price action in line with expectations

Support at 20,700

Resistance at 23.650

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up by + 0.29%

For the week ahead, we could see a consolidation between 12,900 and 13,400

Indicators

Positive week on the DAX which however sees the general picture still substantially unchanged: the downward trend underway since January 2022 is intact and well confirmed.

MACD and RSI, also due to the strong downward extensions, seem to suggest a resumption of vigour which could push the price to test the 13.500 level.

It is certainly positive that the support of 12.600 acted as reversal area but at the same time we do not want to give too much weight given the strong bearish trend.

We remain neutral on the DAX pending its consolidation or break above 13,500

Support at 12,600

Resistance at 14,050

S&P500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week up by + 3.65%

For the coming week we could see a possible consolidation in the area of 4.070 - 4.160

Indicators

Positive week that sees the strong support of 3.900 respected but which still does not exclude a scenario like that of May-June 2022 where an apparent recovery has instead led to new lows.

MACD and RSI seem to support the price action: the former is close to an upward crossing and the RSI has just crossed the 50 mark (bullish).

Given the rises of the last three days, it is desirable to expect a slight retracement from which we could have additional information on the strength of this latest recovery.

We remain neutral on the S&P500 and waiting for the price to consolidate.

Support at 3,900

Resistance at 4,300

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up by + 4.05%

For the coming week we believe the index will consolidate in the area of 12,250 - 12,750

Indicators

Positive week for the Tech index which thus sees recovered the declines of the beginning of September, we have in fact returned to the level of 31 August 2022.

The recent rises confirm the strong support level at 12,000 but do not rule out further falls. In fact it is important to note that this level acted as intermediate resistance in June 2022.

MACD and RSI appear to be support the price rally with the former close to a bullish cross and the latter breaking out of the 50 level.

We remain neutral on the Nasdaq 100 and given the rises of the last few days we do not exclude a retracement at the beginning of the week: pull back that could lead to interesting long setup in the short to medium term.

Support at 12,000

Resistance at 13,500

DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES had a week up by + 2.66%

For the coming week we could see a possible consolidation in the area of 31,600 - 32,000

Indicators

Positive price action which substantially recovered the declines of the beginning of September

The price is now close to the 50MA (yellow line), which has repeatedly played the role of dynamic resistance.

MACD and RSI appear to support the upward move despite being both in bearish territory.

Looking at past action, the 50MA (yellow line) has repeatedly rejected the index and we do not rule out such a scenario even in this case. In particular, we note a negative divergence between (increasing) price and (decreasing) volumes.

We still prefer to remain neutral on the Dow Jones and assume short to medium term long setup in retracement phases.

Support at 31,200

Resistance 34,000

OTB Global Investments

10 September 2022