Financial index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
​FTSE100 | 7.317 | Consolidation | 7.300 | 7.450 | 7.215 | 7.600 |
FTSEMIB | 22.548 | Consolidation | 22.220 | 23.650 | 21.300 | 25.00 |
DAX 40 | 13.762 | Consolidation | 13.600 | 14.050 | 13.200 | 14.460 |
S&P 500 | 3.900 | Consolidation | 3.850 | 4.160 | 3.700 | 4.385 |
NASDAQ 100 | 11.833 | Consolidation | 11.500 | 13.000 | 11.000 | 14.000 |
DOW JONES | 31.393 | Consolidation | 30.600 | 33.290 | 30.000 | 34.000 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week down by -2.86%
For the week ahead, we could see a consolidation between 7.280 and 7.360
Indicators
With the strong trend reversal that took place in the last two days, the FTSE100 once again confirms the wide lateral channel between 7.215 and 7.600
Based on previous price action, we could in fact expect a consolidation in the lower part of this channel to then, eventually, test the lower part of the 50MA (yellow line).
MACD and RSI are in line with the negative moment of the index with the first close to a downward reversal and the second near the oversold area.
We want to underline the short-term bearish channel in existence since April, in which the UKX returned after the "false break" at the beginning of June: with this in mind, we can expect an interesting price action in the area of ​​7.215 where the the index may reverse to the upside or break with greater force to the downside.
Given the strong downward extension of internal indicators, we are positive on the FTSE100 in a short-medium term perspective.
Support at 7.300
Resistance at 7.450
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week down by -7.67%
For the week we could see a consolidation of between 23.500 and 24.000
Indicators
The strong negative week brings the Italian index back to that long bearish trendline broken at the end of May.
Unless the May upside turn out to be a false break, we could expect a consolidation at the top of this trendline, in the 23.250-23.500 area, and then reverse to the upside.
MACD and RSI at the same time confirm the negative moment with the first close to a bearish cross and the second near the oversold area (which coincides with the trendline in place since March 2022).
We are positive on the FTSEMIB in the short to medium term but we prefer to wait for a reversal confirmation at 23.500
Support at 23.500
Resistance at 25.000
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX ended the week down by -4.83%
For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation in the 13.600 - 13.800 area
Indicators
The sell off week brought the DAX back to the bearish trendline broken at the end of May: according to previous swings and now being on the bottom of the Bollinger bands, it is possible to expect a consolidation on this area (followed by an upward recovery).
MACD and RSI at the same time describe the actual negative scenario with the first near a bearish crossover and the second near the oversold area (which coincides with the trendline that started in March 2022)
We are positive on the DAX in the short to medium term but we want to wait for a price confirmation on the current support at 13.600: the aspect that leave us cautious is the increase in volumes in these last trading days.
Support at 13.600
Resistance at 14.050
S&P500 (SPX)
The S&P500 had a week down by -0.00%
For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation in the area of ​​4,000.
Indicators
The recent sell-off have brought the SPX back to the strong support level in place since May 2022 on which we believe a consolidation is possible before possible strong swings in both directions.
MACD and RSI correctly describe the current situation, with the former still below the 0 line (negative momentum) and the latter below the 50 line (bearish).
We believe it is appropriate to monitor how RSI and price will act at the beginning of the week in order to have better directionality: as mentioned, the internal indicator is in slight divergence with the price, which can suggest a possible recovery.
At the same time, a break of the strong support level could lead to further, and stronger, moves to the downside.
We remain positive on the S&P500 in the short to medium term but we prefer to wait for a price reversal on the strong support at 3.850
Support at 3.850
Resistance at 4.160
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week down by -0.00%
For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation in the area of 12.000
Indicators
The tech index is back again on the bearish trendline and we believe that this could lead to a price lateralisation in the coming week.
MACD and RSI remain negative with the first still below the 0 line (negative momentum) and the second near the oversold area.
Given the strong downward extension of the RSI, we believe that the price may not have sufficient strength to break the strong support level but we still believe it is appropriate to wait for price confirmation before evaluating long positions.
We are positive on the NASDAQ in the short to medium term, expecting a turnaround in the 12.000 area.
Support at 11.500
Resistance at 13.000
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES had a week down by -0.00%
For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation in the area between 31.000 and 32.000
Indicators
The strong bearish channel in place since November 2021 continues to dictate the DJI's price action.
Based on previous swings, we might expect possible consolidation at the bottom of that channel.
MACD and RSI continue to correctly describe the negative period of the index: the first is below the 0 line and the second is now near the oversold area.
We believe it's appropriate to monitor how the RSI and price will act at the beginning of the week: possible divergences with the levels of mid-May could give more information on short-term price action
We are positive on the DOW JONES in the short to medium term and we are waiting for a trend reversal in the 31.000 - 31.500 area.
Support at 30.600
Resistance 33.290
OTB Global Investments
12 June 2022
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