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Weekly market brief: 13 - 17 March 2023


Financial index

Current price

Forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

​FTSE100

7,748

Cons./ Bearish

7,400

8,050

7,200

8,160

FTSEMIB

27,281

Cons./ Bearish

24,800

27,900

24,000

28,400

DAX 40

15,427

Cons./ Bearish

13,800

15,800

13,400

16,200

S&P 500

3,861

Consolidation

3,750

4,200

3,600

4,300

NASDAQ 100

11,830

Consolidation

11,000

12,700

10,500

13,300

DOW JONES

31,909

Consolidation

31,200

34,500

30,200

35,000

TADAWUL

10,431

Consolidation

10,000

11,200

9,700

11,700

FTSE ADX

9,827

Consolidation

9,680

10,300

9,680

11,000

DFM

3,385

Consolidation

3,270

3,500

3,100

3,730

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE100 index had a week down by -2.50%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 7,600 area


Indicators

Negative week for the British index as it’s finally breaks the tight trading range in the 7,900 area.

A high volume concentration area can be seen at 7,600 which we believe could act as short term bearish target: if also that one is overcome, we will look at7,500 - 7,400 as reversal area.


MACD e RSI turned heavily to the downside and we will soon have RSI in oversold conditions.


We are now looking for a consolidation in the 7,500 - 7,550 area before considering long setups: in addition, the 200MA often plays as dynamic support during important drawdown.

We remain bearish on the FTSE 100 as we believe the full scale sell-off has not yet been reached

Support at 7,400

Resistance at 8,050



FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB index had a week down by -1.95%

We are in favour of a possible bearish continuation until the 26,000 area.


Indicators

Negative week for the Italian index that could open the way to more relevant selling price action. Once the 27,000 is broken the nearest target remain the one of 26,000


MACD e RSI are in strong negative divergence with the price action and will follow the index downward.


It is too early to say if the medium target will be the 25,000. We will monitor how the price will react on the 26,000 mark as this could represent the first pullback for the Italian index since October 2022.

We stress that a pullback is needed to allow investors to enter long the market.


We remain bearish on the FTSEMIB as we believe that the pullback just started and the two levels that we are now monitoring are 26,000 first and then 25,000.


Support at 24,800

Resistance at 27,900


DAX (#DAX)

The DAX index had a week down by -0.97%

We are in favour of a bearish continuation till 14,600


Indicators

Negative week for the German index that could be set for the first real retracement since November 2022.

A strong area of volume concentration is at 14,600: level that acted as residence throughout 2022.


MACD and RSI are in negative divergence with the price action and we believe will soon follow the price downward.


We remain bearish on the DAX, the current tight trading range doesn’t have the strength to proceed further upward and the increasing negative divergence that has been building will lead to a relevant risk off mode: 14,600 is the short term target

Support at 13,800

Resistance at 15,800


S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P500 index had a week down by -4.55%

We are in favour of a possible bearish continuation till the 3,800 area


Indicators

Negative week for the US index that is now approaching a very interesting area at 3,800. This level acted often as a consolidation/ reversal area as happened in June, October and December 2022.


At this precise moment is too early to say if the SPX will reverse upward but it is important to prepare ourselves near future bounces.


MACD e RSI are in negative territory with the second one approaching oversold conditions


After a bearish phase, we are back to neutral on the S&P 500 as we are waiting to see how the price action will behave on the 3,800.


Support at 3,750

Resistance at 4,200



NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ 100 index had a week down by -3.75%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation on the 11,500 area


Indicators

Negative week for the Tech index that see the price putting in place the so-called “dead cat bounce”.


Looking at volume concentration, the 11,600 level can act as intermediate support. However, if the price would not hold, we could see a quick fall till 11,200.


MACD and RSI are in negative territory

As per the last weeks, we are neutral on the NASDAQ: the price action look fragile and without a particular direction. In the short term, we can in fact expect a consolidation between 11,200 and 11,600 to then possibly revert to the upside.


Now it is too early to determine and we would just try to anticipate price action


Support at 11,000

Resistance at 12,700


DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES index had a week down by -4.44%

We are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 31,600 area


Indicators

Negative week for the industrial index that keep retracing even below the 200 MA (grey line)


MACD e RSI are in negative territory with the second in oversold territory.


By combining oversold condition in the RSI together with a strong support area at 31,200, we could expect some sort of consolidation on these levels.

At the moment is too early to say as we would just try to anticipate price action: what’s more important is to be prepared and look for long setups with optimal risk/reward ratios.


We remain neutral on the DOW JONES as we are waiting for a consolidation in the 31,200 before considering long setups.


Support at 31,200

Resistance at 34,500


TADAWUL (#TASI)

TADAWUL index had a week down by -0.32%

We are in favour of a possible upward move till 10,500.


Indicators

Consolidation week for the Saudi index that sees the price keep moving just below the 50MA.

MACD and RSI in neutral territory and they could support the price during an upward move.


In the short term we see 10,500 and 10,750 as two possible targets. On a more technical level, the recent slow down of the 50MA that has started to flattening in recent weeks could pave the way for a price recovery.

Given the extension to the downside, especially on a weekly basis, we are more keen towards a price recovery.


We are bullish on the TADAWUL.


Support at 10,000

Resistance at 11,200



FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)

FTSE ADX index had a week down by -0.80%

For the week ahead we could see a regain of the 9,900 mark


Indicators

Negative week that sees the price keep moving below the bearish trendline in place since November 2022


Before considering a possible long positions, we believe the price should recover ground at least above the 10,000 level.

MACD and RSI are now very extended to the downside with the latter recovering slightly.


We are bullish on the FADGI but prefer to wait for an initial phase of consolidation which seems to be ongoing.


Support at 9,680

Resistance at 10,300


DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)

DFM index had a week down by -1.04%

For the week ahead we could see a consolidation on the 3,400 level.


Indicators

Negative week that keep seeing the price consolidating on the intermediate support at 3,400


A possible consolidation on the 50MA at 3,380 could offer interesting long setups.


MACD and RSI are back at an almost neutral territory.


We remain neutral on the DFMGI and looking forward to a consolidation within the 3,400 area that could open the doors to a bullish medium term scenario.


Support at 3,270

Resistance at 3,500


OTB Global Investments

12 March 2023

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