Weekly market brief: 13 - 17 March 2023

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,748	Cons./ Bearish	7,400	8,050	7,200	8,160
FTSEMIB	27,281	Cons./ Bearish	24,800	27,900	24,000	28,400
DAX 40	15,427	Cons./ Bearish	13,800	15,800	13,400	16,200
S&P 500	3,861	Consolidation	3,750	4,200	3,600	4,300
NASDAQ 100	11,830	Consolidation	11,000	12,700	10,500	13,300
DOW JONES	31,909	Consolidation	31,200	34,500	30,200	35,000
TADAWUL	10,431	Consolidation	10,000	11,200	9,700	11,700
FTSE ADX	9,827	Consolidation	9,680	10,300	9,680	11,000
DFM	3,385	Consolidation	3,270	3,500	3,100	3,730

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE100 index had a week down by -2.50%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 7,600 area

Indicators

Negative week for the British index as it’s finally breaks the tight trading range in the 7,900 area.

A high volume concentration area can be seen at 7,600 which we believe could act as short term bearish target: if also that one is overcome, we will look at7,500 - 7,400 as reversal area.

MACD e RSI turned heavily to the downside and we will soon have RSI in oversold conditions.

We are now looking for a consolidation in the 7,500 - 7,550 area before considering long setups: in addition, the 200MA often plays as dynamic support during important drawdown.

We remain bearish on the FTSE 100 as we believe the full scale sell-off has not yet been reached

Support at 7,400

Resistance at 8,050

FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB index had a week down by -1.95%

We are in favour of a possible bearish continuation until the 26,000 area.

Indicators

Negative week for the Italian index that could open the way to more relevant selling price action. Once the 27,000 is broken the nearest target remain the one of 26,000

MACD e RSI are in strong negative divergence with the price action and will follow the index downward.

It is too early to say if the medium target will be the 25,000. We will monitor how the price will react on the 26,000 mark as this could represent the first pullback for the Italian index since October 2022.

We stress that a pullback is needed to allow investors to enter long the market.

We remain bearish on the FTSEMIB as we believe that the pullback just started and the two levels that we are now monitoring are 26,000 first and then 25,000.

Support at 24,800

Resistance at 27,900

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX index had a week down by -0.97%

We are in favour of a bearish continuation till 14,600

Indicators

Negative week for the German index that could be set for the first real retracement since November 2022.

A strong area of volume concentration is at 14,600: level that acted as residence throughout 2022.

MACD and RSI are in negative divergence with the price action and we believe will soon follow the price downward.

We remain bearish on the DAX, the current tight trading range doesn’t have the strength to proceed further upward and the increasing negative divergence that has been building will lead to a relevant risk off mode: 14,600 is the short term target

Support at 13,800

Resistance at 15,800

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P500 index had a week down by -4.55%

We are in favour of a possible bearish continuation till the 3,800 area

Indicators

Negative week for the US index that is now approaching a very interesting area at 3,800. This level acted often as a consolidation/ reversal area as happened in June, October and December 2022.

At this precise moment is too early to say if the SPX will reverse upward but it is important to prepare ourselves near future bounces.

MACD e RSI are in negative territory with the second one approaching oversold conditions

After a bearish phase, we are back to neutral on the S&P 500 as we are waiting to see how the price action will behave on the 3,800.

Support at 3,750

Resistance at 4,200

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ 100 index had a week down by -3.75%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation on the 11,500 area

Indicators

Negative week for the Tech index that see the price putting in place the so-called “dead cat bounce”.

Looking at volume concentration, the 11,600 level can act as intermediate support. However, if the price would not hold, we could see a quick fall till 11,200.

MACD and RSI are in negative territory

As per the last weeks, we are neutral on the NASDAQ: the price action look fragile and without a particular direction. In the short term, we can in fact expect a consolidation between 11,200 and 11,600 to then possibly revert to the upside.

Now it is too early to determine and we would just try to anticipate price action

Support at 11,000

Resistance at 12,700

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES index had a week down by -4.44%

We are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 31,600 area

Indicators

Negative week for the industrial index that keep retracing even below the 200 MA (grey line)

MACD e RSI are in negative territory with the second in oversold territory.

By combining oversold condition in the RSI together with a strong support area at 31,200, we could expect some sort of consolidation on these levels.

At the moment is too early to say as we would just try to anticipate price action: what’s more important is to be prepared and look for long setups with optimal risk/reward ratios.

We remain neutral on the DOW JONES as we are waiting for a consolidation in the 31,200 before considering long setups.

Support at 31,200

Resistance at 34,500

TADAWUL (#TASI)

TADAWUL index had a week down by -0.32%

We are in favour of a possible upward move till 10,500.

Indicators

Consolidation week for the Saudi index that sees the price keep moving just below the 50MA.

MACD and RSI in neutral territory and they could support the price during an upward move.

In the short term we see 10,500 and 10,750 as two possible targets. On a more technical level, the recent slow down of the 50MA that has started to flattening in recent weeks could pave the way for a price recovery.

Given the extension to the downside, especially on a weekly basis, we are more keen towards a price recovery.

We are bullish on the TADAWUL.

Support at 10,000

Resistance at 11,200

FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)

FTSE ADX index had a week down by -0.80%

For the week ahead we could see a regain of the 9,900 mark

Indicators

Negative week that sees the price keep moving below the bearish trendline in place since November 2022

Before considering a possible long positions, we believe the price should recover ground at least above the 10,000 level.

MACD and RSI are now very extended to the downside with the latter recovering slightly.

We are bullish on the FADGI but prefer to wait for an initial phase of consolidation which seems to be ongoing.

Support at 9,680

Resistance at 10,300

DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)

DFM index had a week down by -1.04%

For the week ahead we could see a consolidation on the 3,400 level.

Indicators

Negative week that keep seeing the price consolidating on the intermediate support at 3,400

A possible consolidation on the 50MA at 3,380 could offer interesting long setups.

MACD and RSI are back at an almost neutral territory.

We remain neutral on the DFMGI and looking forward to a consolidation within the 3,400 area that could open the doors to a bullish medium term scenario.

Support at 3,270

Resistance at 3,500

OTB Global Investments

12 March 2023