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Weekly market brief: 20 - 24 March 2023


Financial index

Current price

Forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

​FTSE100

7,314

Cons./ Bullish

7,300

7,700

7,100

7,900

FTSEMIB

25,495

Consolidation

24,800

27,900

24,000

28,400

DAX 40

14,768

Cons./ Bearish

13,800

15,800

13,400

16,200

S&P 500

3,916

Consolidation

3,750

4,200

3,600

4,300

NASDAQ 100

12,520

Consolidation

11,000

12,700

10,500

13,300

DOW JONES

31,861

Consolidation

31,200

34,500

30,200

35,000

TADAWUL

9,976

Cons./ Bullish

10,000

11,200

9,700

11,700

FTSE ADX

9,650

Cons./ Bullish

9,680

10,300

9,680

11,000

DFM

3,349

Consolidation

3,270

3,500

3,100

3,730

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE100 index had a week down by -5.33%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible recovery till 7,500


Indicators

Negative week for the British index that finally retrace to more traded levels. The 7,300 is an important support area that could lead to short term bounces.

MACD e RSI are very extended to the downside with the second one in oversold condition

Looking at previous swings, the index could also consolidate on the 7,200 area to then revert to the upside.

The risk/reward has now shifted towards more interesting levels and we start to consider long positions (assuming 7,100 as ultimate support)


We are neutral on the FTSE 100 with a bias towards upside potential


Support at 7,300

Resistance at 7,700



FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB index had a week down by -6.55%

We are in favour of a possible consolidation within the 26,000 area.


Indicators

Negative week for the Italian index that is now retracing on a strong support level that precisely opened the way to the January bullish rally.


From a price action standpoint, it is difficult to understand if the 100MA will hold or will just act as first step towards a more deeper sell-off.


MACD e RSI are quite extended to the downside with the second one approaching oversold condition.


We are neutral on the FTSEMIB because if the support at 25,000 won’t hold the index, a rapid fall till 23,500 is still on the table.


Support at 24,800

Resistance at 27,900


DAX (#DAX)

The DAX index had a week down by -4.28%

We are in favour of a possible bearish continuation till 14,500


Indicators

Negative week for the German index that it’s having the first real retracement since November 2022.


A strong area of volume concentration is at 14,600: level that acted as residence throughout 2022.


MACD and RSI turned to the downside with the second one approaching oversold conditions


We remain bearish on the DAX, an ideal retracement should reach at least 14,250. Therefore until the price doesn’t consolidate, we rather be on the caution side.


Support at 13,800

Resistance at 15,800


S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P500 index had a week up by +1.43%

We are in favour of a possible recovery till the 4,000 area


Indicators

Positive week for the US index that managed to reverse to the upside on the 3,800 area as happened in December 2022


At this precise moment is too early to say if the SPX will reverse upward but it is important to prepare ourselves for future bounces.


MACD e RSI are recovering and seem to support the index on a upward move


After a bearish phase, we are back to neutral on the S&P 500 with a bias towards the upside.


Support at 3,750

Resistance at 4,200



NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ 100 index had a week up by 5.83%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation on the 12,500 area


Indicators

Positive week for the Tech index that appears to be the most confusing among its peers.


The bounce on the 50MA can be a very positive sign on a medium term horizon, at the same we would like to see the price consolidating between 12,500 and 12,700 before proceeding upwards.


MACD e RSI are positive and in negative divergence with the levels of January-February 2023: it is specifically this aspect that keeps us caution on the index.


We are neutral on the NASDAQ as we would like to see the price to consolidate before proceeding upwards. A sideway price action could allow internal indicators to exit the current divergence and being more supportive for upwards move.


Support at 11,000

Resistance at 12,700


DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES index had a week down by -0.15%

We are in favour of a possible recover till 32,400 area


Indicators

Consolidation week for the industrial index as it is now floating on the upper side of the bearish trendline broken in November 2022.

There are high chances that the current price action is back-testing the previous breakout point, however we will need to wait for the price to confirm such event.


MACD e RSI are extended to the downside with the second near the oversold condition


We are neutral on the DOW JONES with a bias towards upward potential: the tight trading range between 31,600 and 32,300 will soon be broken, in our opinion to the upside.


Support at 31,200

Resistance at 34,500


TADAWUL (#TASI)

TADAWUL index had a week down by -4.65%

We are in favour of a possible upward move till 10,300.


Indicators

Negative week for the Saudi index that saw the price backtesting the support level at 10,000.


MACD and RSI are in negative territory and with a positive divergence compare to last week levels.


In the short term we see 10,500 and 10,750 as two possible targets. On a more technical level, the recent slow down of the 50MA that has started to flattening in recent weeks could pave the way for a price recovery.

Given the extension to the downside, especially on a weekly basis, we are more keen towards a price recovery.


We are bullish on the TADAWUL.


Support at 10,000

Resistance at 11,200


FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)

FTSE ADX index had a week down by -1.81%

For the week ahead we could see a regain of the 9,900 mark


Indicators

Negative week that sees the price keep moving below the bearish trendline in place since November 2022


Before considering a possible long positions, we believe the price should recover ground at least above the 10,000 level.

MACD and RSI are now very extended to the downside with the latter recovering slightly.


We are bullish on the FADGI but prefer to wait for an initial phase of consolidation which seems to be ongoing.


Support at 9,680

Resistance at 10,300


DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)

DFM index had a week down by -1.07%

For the week ahead we could see a consolidation on the 3,400 level.


Indicators

Negative week that saw the price bouncing from the support at 3,270 and it is now set to recover ground.


MACD and RSI are recovering with the second one exiting the oversold condition.


We remain neutral on the DFMGI with a bias toward upside potential till 3,400 area that could then open the doors to a bullish medium term scenario.


Support at 3,270

Resistance at 3,500


OTB Global Investments

18 March 2023