Weekly market brief: 20 - 24 March 2023

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,314	Cons./ Bullish	7,300	7,700	7,100	7,900
FTSEMIB	25,495	Consolidation	24,800	27,900	24,000	28,400
DAX 40	14,768	Cons./ Bearish	13,800	15,800	13,400	16,200
S&P 500	3,916	Consolidation	3,750	4,200	3,600	4,300
NASDAQ 100	12,520	Consolidation	11,000	12,700	10,500	13,300
DOW JONES	31,861	Consolidation	31,200	34,500	30,200	35,000
TADAWUL	9,976	Cons./ Bullish	10,000	11,200	9,700	11,700
FTSE ADX	9,650	Cons./ Bullish	9,680	10,300	9,680	11,000
DFM	3,349	Consolidation	3,270	3,500	3,100	3,730

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE100 index had a week down by -5.33%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible recovery till 7,500

Indicators

Negative week for the British index that finally retrace to more traded levels. The 7,300 is an important support area that could lead to short term bounces.

MACD e RSI are very extended to the downside with the second one in oversold condition

Looking at previous swings, the index could also consolidate on the 7,200 area to then revert to the upside.

The risk/reward has now shifted towards more interesting levels and we start to consider long positions (assuming 7,100 as ultimate support)

We are neutral on the FTSE 100 with a bias towards upside potential

Support at 7,300

Resistance at 7,700

FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB index had a week down by -6.55%

We are in favour of a possible consolidation within the 26,000 area.

Indicators

Negative week for the Italian index that is now retracing on a strong support level that precisely opened the way to the January bullish rally.

From a price action standpoint, it is difficult to understand if the 100MA will hold or will just act as first step towards a more deeper sell-off.

MACD e RSI are quite extended to the downside with the second one approaching oversold condition.

We are neutral on the FTSEMIB because if the support at 25,000 won’t hold the index, a rapid fall till 23,500 is still on the table.

Support at 24,800

Resistance at 27,900

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX index had a week down by -4.28%

We are in favour of a possible bearish continuation till 14,500

Indicators

Negative week for the German index that it’s having the first real retracement since November 2022.

A strong area of volume concentration is at 14,600: level that acted as residence throughout 2022.

MACD and RSI turned to the downside with the second one approaching oversold conditions

We remain bearish on the DAX, an ideal retracement should reach at least 14,250. Therefore until the price doesn’t consolidate, we rather be on the caution side.

Support at 13,800

Resistance at 15,800

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P500 index had a week up by +1.43%

We are in favour of a possible recovery till the 4,000 area

Indicators

Positive week for the US index that managed to reverse to the upside on the 3,800 area as happened in December 2022

At this precise moment is too early to say if the SPX will reverse upward but it is important to prepare ourselves for future bounces.

MACD e RSI are recovering and seem to support the index on a upward move

After a bearish phase, we are back to neutral on the S&P 500 with a bias towards the upside.

Support at 3,750

Resistance at 4,200

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ 100 index had a week up by 5.83%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation on the 12,500 area

Indicators

Positive week for the Tech index that appears to be the most confusing among its peers.

The bounce on the 50MA can be a very positive sign on a medium term horizon, at the same we would like to see the price consolidating between 12,500 and 12,700 before proceeding upwards.

MACD e RSI are positive and in negative divergence with the levels of January-February 2023: it is specifically this aspect that keeps us caution on the index.

We are neutral on the NASDAQ as we would like to see the price to consolidate before proceeding upwards. A sideway price action could allow internal indicators to exit the current divergence and being more supportive for upwards move.

Support at 11,000

Resistance at 12,700

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES index had a week down by -0.15%

We are in favour of a possible recover till 32,400 area

Indicators

Consolidation week for the industrial index as it is now floating on the upper side of the bearish trendline broken in November 2022.

There are high chances that the current price action is back-testing the previous breakout point, however we will need to wait for the price to confirm such event.

MACD e RSI are extended to the downside with the second near the oversold condition

We are neutral on the DOW JONES with a bias towards upward potential: the tight trading range between 31,600 and 32,300 will soon be broken, in our opinion to the upside.

Support at 31,200

Resistance at 34,500

TADAWUL (#TASI)

TADAWUL index had a week down by -4.65%

We are in favour of a possible upward move till 10,300.

Indicators

Negative week for the Saudi index that saw the price backtesting the support level at 10,000.

MACD and RSI are in negative territory and with a positive divergence compare to last week levels.

In the short term we see 10,500 and 10,750 as two possible targets. On a more technical level, the recent slow down of the 50MA that has started to flattening in recent weeks could pave the way for a price recovery.

Given the extension to the downside, especially on a weekly basis, we are more keen towards a price recovery.

We are bullish on the TADAWUL.

Support at 10,000

Resistance at 11,200

FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)

FTSE ADX index had a week down by -1.81%

For the week ahead we could see a regain of the 9,900 mark

Indicators

Negative week that sees the price keep moving below the bearish trendline in place since November 2022

Before considering a possible long positions, we believe the price should recover ground at least above the 10,000 level.

MACD and RSI are now very extended to the downside with the latter recovering slightly.

We are bullish on the FADGI but prefer to wait for an initial phase of consolidation which seems to be ongoing.

Support at 9,680

Resistance at 10,300

DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)

DFM index had a week down by -1.07%

For the week ahead we could see a consolidation on the 3,400 level.

Indicators

Negative week that saw the price bouncing from the support at 3,270 and it is now set to recover ground.

MACD and RSI are recovering with the second one exiting the oversold condition.

We remain neutral on the DFMGI with a bias toward upside potential till 3,400 area that could then open the doors to a bullish medium term scenario.

Support at 3,270

Resistance at 3,500

OTB Global Investments

18 March 2023