Weekly market brief: 13 - 17 September 2021

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week down -1.78%

For the week ahead, the index could move between 7,000 and 7,080

Indicators

This week the FTSE managed to break down the 9MA and 50MA.

For a continuation of the bearish tone, the level to watch will be 7,000: a break and close below would lead the index to test 6,856.

Looking at the previous swings and the possible reversal candle on Friday, the index could recover ground up to at least 7,080.

However, the indicators presented a more bearish scenario with the MACD that crossed to the downside and the RSI that exceeded the support at 44: there is the possibility of a scenario very similar to July 16, 2021.

The break of one of the two levels at 7,000 or 7,080 will lead to strong moves in either direction.

Support for 6.980

Resistance at 7,165

FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week down -1.79%

For the week, we expect a recovery up to 26,000

Indicators

The index managed to reconcile the 50MA and could offer, at least in the short term, a bullish recovery.

In the past, several times the 50MA have played the role of intermediate support.

The MACD seems to be willing to continue to the downside while the RSI is now at a strong support area from April 2021.

A possible scenario could be a slight recovery, bouncing off the 50MA, and then continuing to at least 25,300

Support at 25,554

Resistance at 26.184

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week down -1.37%

For the week ahead, the price could pick up ground to 15,736

Indicators

The DAX managed to retest the intermediate resistance at 15,500 and we believe it can now regain some ground.

Looking at previous swings, the index has often rebounded to the upside at 15,500.

MACD has a more bearish tone, crossing to the downside, while the RSI is testing the support at 40: a very strong level since February 2021

Should the DAX continue to fall, we believe it could be a quick test of 15,306 -15,135 - even better entry points for the long position as we remain bullish over the medium term.

Support at 15,306

Resistance at 15,736

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week down -1.51%.

For the week it could continue downwards to 4.430 and then reverse to the upside

Indicators

The index is now following a setup already seen in the past: after hitting the top of the Bollinger band, it has begun to retrace to the 50MA.

We believe that this scenario can repeat itself and that the index could reach the level of 4,430 in the short term and then continues to rise.

MACD crossed to the downside and RSI reached the area of 50: in the past, strong upward moves followed.

We consider this physiological retracement before continuing to the upside

Support at 4.390

Resistance at 4.468

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week down -0.79%

For the week ahead, the index could continue the downward pressure till 15,300

Indicators

We believe the NASDAQ has now started a retracement to the strong support area at 15.152.

MACD and RSI are both pointing downwards with the latter just exiting the overbought zone.

On Friday, the index managed to break the 9MA and we are confident on a drop to at least the 50MA.

Support for 15.152

Resistance at 15,702

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES had a week down by -2.15%

For the coming week, we expect a recovery of up to 35,000

Indicators

The DOW JONES perfectly complied with the “rising wedge” setup and broke strongly to the downside.

We believe that the intermediate support at 34,600 could serve as the basis for a reversal to the upside just below the 50MA.

MACD and RSI are both unbalanced to the downside with the latter close to the oversold zone.

In the event that the bearish panic were to perpetrate in the following week, we believe it could be a very fast descent to 34.261 and then return to the upside: in this scenario, the RSI would go heavily oversold, offering excellent opportunities for long positions.

Support for 34.261

Resistance 35,096

OTB Global Investments

11 September 2021