Weekly market brief: 14 - 18 February 2022

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7.661	Bearish	7.520	7.684	7.405	7.815
FTSEMIB	26.996	Bearish	26.750	27.406	26.000	27.887
DAX 40	15.425	Cons./ Bearish	15.040	15.450	14.815	15.736
S&P 500	4.418	Bearish	4.376	4.535	4.245	4.720
NASDAQ 100	14.254	Cons./ Bearish	13.855	14.426	13.445	15.330
DOW JONES	34.378	Consolidation	34.200	35.515	33.600	36.522

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up + 1.45%

For the week we are in favor of a retracement to at least 7,520

Indicators

After having surpassed the previous level of 7,615, the English index has begun a reversal figure: the last two candles on Thursday and Friday suggest a decline for the coming week.

In addition we can see a marked distance of the price from the average at both 9 and 50 days: looking at past swings, this has led to retracements in the short term.

MACD and RSI are both in negative divergence with the price: in fact at an increasing price we have decreasing internal indicators. In our opinion, this is a further sign of the weakness of the index.

The primary trend remains strongly upward, but we expect bearish volatility for the short term.

Support for 7,520

Resistance at 7,684

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up + 0.85%

For the week we could expect retracement to at least 26,400

Indicators

More indecisive scenario on the Italian index which saw substantial consolidation in the week just ended.

Graphically, we can see a bearish trendline in existence since the beginning of January that the price has never managed to overcome.

On the other hand, the bearish trendline broken at the end of January is still difficult to overcome and the price was rejected at this level on Friday.

MACD and RSI instead show a more encouraging scenario, with rising lows in both cases.

To put this situation in practice, we will wait for the break of 27.210 (up) or 26.640 (down) to understand the near-term direction.

Given the price reversal of the last few days, we are in favor of downward pressure for the week ahead.

Support for 26,750

Resistance at 27.406

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up + 1.30%

For the week ahead, we expect a retracement to at least 15,200-15,100

Indicators

The German index has a certain regularity in its fluctuations, having been on a horizontal channel since May 2021.

We can see a marked bearish trend line in place since the beginning of January 2022 which led the price to reverse downwards on Thursday: the rejection, which occurred below the 50-day average, is in our opinion an indicator of possible weakness for the week ahead.

MACD and RSI, on the other hand, describe a more encouraging scenario, recording rising lows in both cases, with the former close to a bullish reversal.

For the moment, we remain in favor of a retracement at least up to the current support which has offered excellent buying positions in the past.

Support for 15.040

Resistance at 15,450

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S & P 500 had a week down by -1.79%

For the coming week, the index could retrace at least to 4,320

Indicators

We read the marked downward exit from the very short-term channel 4.480-4.560 as an indicator of bearish volatility for the following week.

From a technical point of view, the “double top” formation at 4,590 (below the 50-day average) confirms a downward reversal.

MACD and RSI both reversed the line with the current scenario downward.

Looking at the fluctuations of the last few weeks: strong downward break, back-test of the breaking point followed by a downward reversal, generally lead the financial instrument to record new lows.

It is still too early to outline this scenario, for the moment we expect the previous accumulation area to be reached at 4.320-4.360

Support for 4,376

Resistance at 4,535

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week down -3.11%

For the week ahead, we expect a bearish move to at least 14,000

Indicators

The strong downside break where the short consolidation phase leads us to be in favour of further bearish pressure for the short term.

MACD and RSI have both reversed to the downside, and in particular, the latter could re-enter the bearish trend line.

Following the reversal candles in the final of the week, we believe that the index can quickly reach the current support to consolidate between 13,600 - 13,900 where, in our opinion, interesting buying opportunities could be generated.

Support at 13,855

Resistance at 14,426

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES had a week down by -0.93%

For the week ahead, we expect a downside to at least 34,400

Indicators

More regular fluctuation for the DJI which, after carrying out the Back-test of the previous breaking point, then reversed to the downside.

As with other indices, these formations tend to generate higher lows in the financial instrument. In this case, it is still too early to understand whether the index will exceed 33,200 to the downside but we can still expect further pressure for the coming week.

MACD and RSI both reversed to the downside.

The current support represents, in our opinion, a realistic target in the very short term: as a fitter, pay attention to how the index will behave in the 33,600 and 34,200 range, given that in the past it has been more ground for reversal that I continue bearish.

Support to 34,200

Resistance 35,515

OTB Global Investments

13 February 2022