Weekly market brief: 15 - 19 November 2021

Index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7.348	Bearish/Cons	7.330	7.470	7.220	7.550
FTSEMIB	27.733	Bearish/Cons	26.750	27.870	26.184	28.700
DAX 40	16.094	Bearish/Cons	15.890	16.094	15.736	16.260
S&P 500	4.683	Bearish/Cons	4.600	4.720	4.550	4.800
NASDAQ 100	16.200	Bearish/Cons	15.700	16.450	15.152	16.600
DOW JONES	36.100	Consolidation	35.772	36.482	35.455	36.800

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up + 0.60%

For the week we expect a retracement to at least 7,220

Indicators

Positive week for the British index which managed to break the previous resistance, now support, at 7,330.

We believe that this additional momentum is more due to the sharp depreciation of the GBP/USD rather than to an actual recovery in the strength of the index.

MACD and RSI remain very extended to the upside and looking at previous swings a retracement in the short term would be more than physiological, to also avoid overbought situations.

By expecting a recovery in GBP/USD combined with an over-extension in the MACD and RSI indicators, we are in favour of a retracement at least to 7,220 to then continue higher.

Support at 7,330

Resistance at 7,470

FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up + 0.60%

For the week we remain in favour of a retracement to 27,300

Indicators

After retesting the 9MA, the index reversed upwards in what, in our opinion, could end in a "double bottom" at 27,870.

MACD despite the price recovery of the last few days continues to signal a loss of momentum, combined with an RSI still overbought.

The trend of the Italian index remains bullish but we believe the price is at the moment it is overbought, limiting the opportunities for long positions. In addition, there is a considerable distance from the 50MA.

Support for 26,750

Resistance at 26,870

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up + 0.32%

For the week ahead, we expect a slight decline to 15,980

Indicators

The German index continues to fluctuate in a close parallel channel, tested already a few times during the week.

The price fluctuation could suggest a break to the upside but in our opinion, it is more the MACD and RSI indicators that sound a precautionary alarm.

MACD, despite a bullish week, is continuing to signal a loss of momentum.

RSI has reached the overbought zone where we could expect a subsequent retracement in the short term

Support for 15.980

Resistance at 16,094

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week down by -0.62%

For the coming week, the index could retrace at least to 4,600

Indicators

The SPX this week has completed the retracement we had announced last week and we believe that this can continue into the following one.

Indeed, while we have seen a resurgence of strength in the price in recent days, the MACD and RSI indicators still remain in support of short-term bearish swings.

MACD is close to a bearish cross and the RSI still remains in the overbought zone

The strong gap from the 50MA, combined with over-extended indicators, suggest a possible retracement in the short term keeping the strong primary uptrend intact

Support for 4,600

Resistance at 4,720

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week down -0.17%

For the week ahead, we expect a retracement to 15,800

Indicators

The tech index, after retracing to 16,000, has regained ground in the last days of the week. We read these latest increases as a possible backtest of previous intermediate support zones and then continue to the downside.

MACD appears to be close to a bearish crossover and RSI continues to be in overbought territory.

The primary trend remains strongly bullish, but the MACD and RSI indicators combined with a strong distance from the 50MA suggest a possible retracement before resuming higher.

Support at 15,700

Resistance at 16,450

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES had a week down -1.17%

For the week ahead, we expect a consolidation between 36,100 and 35,800

Indicators

The Dow Jones is one of the American indices that has retraced the most in the week just ended.

We could expect a slight rise to at least 36,200 to then continue lower

MACD has crossed to the downside and we expect it to continue for the week ahead.

RSI has left the oversold zone and could support a back-test of the previous level before keep going down.

The trend remains bullish but we expect bearish swings before entering December.

Support at 35.722

Resistance 36,482

OTB Global Investments

14 November 2021