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Weekly market brief: 16 - 20 January 2023


Financial index

Current price

Forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

​FTSE100

7,844

Cons./ Bearish

7,400

7,900

7,200

7,800

FTSEMIB

25,783

Consolidation

23,400

25,900

22,400

26,500

DAX 40

15,086

Consolidation

13,800

15,200

13,400

15,500

S&P 500

3,999

Cons./ Bullish

3,750

4,100

3,600

4,180

NASDAQ 100

11,541

Cons./ Bullish

10,400

12,000

10,000

12,700

DOW JONES

34,302

Cons./ Bullish

31,200

34,500

30,200

35,000

TADAWUL

10,744

Cons./ Bullish

10,000

11,200

9,700

11,700

FTSE ADX

10,210

Consolidation

9,900

10,750

9,680

11,000

DFM

3,323

Cons./ Bullish

3,270

3,500

3,100

3,730

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE100 index had a week up by +1.88%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible retracement to the 7.650 area


Indicators

Very positive week for the English index which returns to 2018 highs'.


The upswings resulted in the break of the strong resistance area at 7,650 which now sees the price continuing to move on Bollinger Band upper level.


MACD and RSI are in large overbought territory and in negative divergence with the price action.


We believe that the risk/reward is even more in favour of short to medium term declines with the first target at 7,650 and then, in our opinion, proceed further downwards to at least 7,400-7,300.


We remain bearish on the FTSE100 given the over-extension to the upside


Support at 7,400

Resistance at 7,900




FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB index had a week up by +2.40%

We are in favour of a consolidation in the 25,000 area for the week ahead


Indicators

Positive week for the Italian index which is now testing a strong resistance area at 25,800: a level that has acted as support during 2021.


MACD and RSI are very extended to the upside and in negative divergence with the price action: these two factors in fact make us lean towards a possible retracement, especially near a strong resistance area.


We remain neutral on the FTSEMIB with a propensity towards short-medium term downside pressure


Support at 23,400

Resistance at 25,900


DAX (#DAX)

The DAX index had a week up by +3.26%

We are in favour of a consolidation in the 14,600 area for the week ahead


Indicators

Positive week for the German index which is now approaching the strong resistance level at 15,200


MACD and RSI are broadly to the upside and in negative divergence with the price action. It is precisely this last factor that makes us remain skeptical about the possibility of a bullish continuation.

A plausible short-term target we believe to be 14,400 which can then play as a reversal point or first step in view of a more substantial retracement.


We remain short on the DAX40 and waiting for a market reversal.


Support at 13,800

Resistance at 15,200


S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P500 index had a week up by +2.67%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible continuation till 4,100


Indicators

Bullish week where the price managed to remain above the 50-day average.


MACD and RSI are recovering and seem to support the price action


The price is once again slightly above the downward trendline that started in 2022 and given the positive momentum, we do not exclude a test of the 4,100 area.

Unlike other occasions, the inside indicators are not overextended to the upside thus leaving the door open for further upside.


At the same time, a drop below the 50-day average (yellow line) could open the door to a new bearish phase.


We are bullish, cautiously, on the S&P 500


Support at 3,750

Resistance at 4,100




NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ 100 index had a week up by +4.54%

We are in favour of a possible upside to 12,000 for the week ahead


Indicators

Positive week for the Tech index as its recovery continues.


MACD and RSI appear to support the recovery of the index with the former about to return to bullish territory.


The price is now near the strong downward trendline which could be broken to the upside. Unlike other occasions we now have internal indicators not overextended and in a strong recovery mode: two important factors if we want to consider a trend change.

We are bullish on the NASDAQ 100 with a short-term target of 12,000

Support at 10,400

Resistance at 12,000


DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES index had a week up by +2.00%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible upside potential till 35,000


Indicators

Positive week for the American index which can now point to a further extension of the price at least up to 35,000 and then possibly reverse slightly.


MACD and RSI are positive even though the latter is now approaching the overbought area


Keep in mind that the exit from the Bollinger Bands suggests caution


Despite possible short-term upside, we remain bearish on the DOW JONES over the medium term and until the price reaches at least 31,600 the risk-reward will remain skewed in favour of further downside.


Support at 31,200

Resistance at 34,500



TADAWUL (#TASI)

TADAWUL index had a week up by +2.02%

We are in favour of a possible upside potential till 11,000 for the week ahead


Indicators

Positive week for the Saudi index which continues its recovery.


The trend reversal at 10,000 is meeting expectations and we could now assume a stretch to at least 11,000.


MACD and RSI are positive and are supporting the price action


We remain bullish on TADAWUL with a short-term target at 11,000.


Support at 10,000

Resistance at 11,200


FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)

FTSE ADX index had a week up by +0.13%

For the week ahead we favour a consolidation in the 10,000-10,400 area


Indicators

A week of slightly to the upside which sees the price respecting the bearish trendline that began in December


Continued swings near the 50-day average (yellow line) could pave the way for a re-test of 10,600.


MACD and RSI mirror the price action and are both very close to going back into bullish territory.


Specifically, we prefer to wait for a consolidation in the 10,000 -10,400 area and then consider long setups: even a possible retracement to 9,900 could offer interesting opportunities.


We currently remain neutral on the FTSE ADX with a short-term upside bias.


Support at 9,900

Resistance at 10,750


DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)

DFM index had a week up by +0.65

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible recovery to 3,380


Indicators

A week of substantial consolidation for the DFM


Since mid-September, the index has continued to fluctuate within the same trading range of 3,300-3,400, giving no particular direction in the short to medium term.

MACD and RSI are also neutral with the latter slipping into bearish territory.


We currently remain neutral on DFMGI waiting for a break of one of the two levels at 3,300 or 3,400


Support at 3,270

Resistance at 3,500


OTB Global Investments

15 January 2022