Weekly market brief: 16 - 20 May 2022

Financial index	Current prce	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,418	Cons./ Bullish	7,300	7,450	7,190	7,570
FTSEMIB	24,048	Cons./ Bullish	22,900	24,250	22,345	25,000
DAX 40	14,027	Cons./ Bullish	13,600	14,050	13,260	14,460
S&P 500	4,023	Cons./ Bullish	3,850	4,150	3,700	4,385
NASDAQ 100	23,387	Cons./ Bullish	12,200	13,500	11,700	14,405
DOW JONES	32,197	Cons./ Bullish	32,000	34,000	31,250	35,500

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up by + 0,66%

For the coming week we could see a consolidation between 7.400 - 7.350 followed by a move to the upside.

Indicators

The parallele channel of the FTSE100 continues between 7.300 - 7.600 with the area around 7.190 is once again confirmed as a reversal point.

For the coming week we could expect a consolidation with subsequent upward push: specifically, the index could slightly retrace to 7.350 to then possibly aim for a break of the current resistance level.

MACD and RSI signal a resumption of vigour, with the former intending to reverse to the upside and the RSI close to breaking the bearish trendline and the 50 line (bullish).

We remain positive on the British index, in the short to medium term with a favourable series of higher highs from 10 May.

Support at 7.300

Resistance at 7.450

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up by +2,60%

For the week we could see a consolidation between 23.250 - 24.600 followed by a push to the upside.

Indicators

The week just ended saw the Italian index, on Friday, exceeding the 9MA (red line) which we believe to be a short-term positive indicator: observing past price action, we noted positive performance after similar moves.

At the same time, the FTSEMIB is now re-testing the bearish trendline in place since early 2022 (which coincides with the 50MA - yellow line).

MACD and RSI seem to favour a bullish push for the index, with the first close to a reversal to the upside and the second on the 50 line (bullish).

We are positive on the FTSEMIB and believe that a consolidation above 24.250 could then lead to further upside.

Support at 22.900

Resistance at 24.250

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up by 3,01%

For the week ahead, we are in favour of a consolidation between 13.800 -14.050 to then moving higher

Indicators

The German index is again close to the 50MA (yellow line) which has played the role of dynamic resistance in recent months.

MACD and RSI appear to support a bullish recovery in the DAX, with the former near a bullish crossover and the latter very close to break the 50 line (bullish).

It is still too early to understand if the index will be able to break the resistance level (and 50MA) to reverse to the upside.

A scenario like that of March 29, April 21 and May 5 is still possible. At the same time, we believe that the greatest difference between the current price action and the past ones lies in the RSI: the indicator exited the oversold area and broke the bearish trendline in place since March 2022, which didn't happened in previous occasions.

We are positive on the DAX and in favour of a possible short to medium term upside reversal.

Support at 13.600

Resistance at 14.050

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week down by -0,84%

For the week ahead, we are in favour of a recovery to at least 4.150

Indicators

The strong green candles in the final days of the week make us lay out a resumption of vigour in the SPX also considering the strong downward extension.

Looking at past price action, the low volumes area between 3.850 and 4.150 could lead to rapid price movements.

MACD and RSI are both very extended to the downside with the second in positive divergence with the price.

As also pointed out the previous week, we believe that the Index is now strongly extended to the downside, shifting its risk/reward in favour of long positions.

The short-term target is at 4.150: a break of it could then bring the index to 4.300 in the medium term.

Support at 3.850

Resistance at 4.150

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week down by -0.53%

For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation between 12.600-13.000 followed by a bullish upside.

Indicators

Despite another bearish week, we believe that the index may soon begin a slow upward recovery: we believe it is also supported by a slowdown in the weekly declines.

The price action of the week just ended continue to be above the bearish trendline which we believe to be a positive indicator: further confirmation will be given by a break of the 9MA (red line) at 12.600.

MACD and RSI are both very extended to the downside, which makes us shift the risk/reward ratio in favour of possible price recovery and trend reversals. We highlight also a mild positive divergence between RSI and price.

Still on the RSI, another factor to monitor is the bearish trendline in existence since March 2022: a break of it could be very positive in a short-medium term perspective.

The price action on the trendline combined with oversold internal indicators make us remain positive on the Nasdaq and in favour of a price recovery with a short-term target of 13,500 (strong breaking point)

Support at 12.200

Resistance at 13.500

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES had a week down by -0,81%

For the week ahead, we expect a bullish recovery to at least 33.200

Indicators

We believe that the reversal at 31.250 is a good short to medium term indicator that could position the Index price action in the broad channel between 32.000 and 34.000 (just below the 50MA - yellow line).

MACD and RSI are now very extended to the downside, which makes us lean towards a recovery in strength of the index and upward moves in the short term.

Further confirmation will be given by the break of the 9MA (red line) at 32.600.

We are positive on the DJI and believe that the 32.000 level can now serve as a support for a bullish recovery in the index

Support at 32.000

Resistance 34.000

OTB Global Investments

14 May 2022