Financial index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
​FTSE100 | 7,616 | Consolidation | 7,520 | 7,675 | 7,405 | 7,775 |
FTSEMIB | 24,862 | Cons./ Bullish | 24,000 | 24,960 | 22,900 | 25,885 |
DAX 40 | 14,163 | Cons./ Bullish | 14,150 | 14,815 | 13,600 | 15,500 |
S&P 500 | 4,392 | Cons./ Bullish | 4,375 | 4,535 | 4,240 | 4,700 |
NASDAQ 100 | 13,893 | Cons./ Bullish | 13,855 | 14,350 | 13,455 | 15,000 |
DOW JONES | 34,451 | Cons./ Bullish | 33,600 | 35,515 | 32,400 | 37,000 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week down -0.02%
For the week ahead, we monitor the narrow parallel channel 7,550 - 7,620
Indicators
The indecision on the British index continues, with another week marked by muted price action: the hypothesis of a double top with the candles of early February is still present.
Compared to the previous weeks, we can see a narrow horizontal channel between 7.550 and 7.620: the break of one of these two levels could then give rise to strong swings in both directions.
MACD and RSI reflect the current situation of indecision: MACD, despite being above 0 (positive momentum), seems to want to cross to the downside and the RSI continues to move at a high RSI level.
We remain positive on the FTSE100 but we await a retracement before being in favour of further rises: a slight reversal on the 7.450-7.500 area would avoid divergences between price and indicators and would make the move to the upside more regular.
Support at 7,520
Resistance at 7.675
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week up by + 0.78%
For the week we could expect a breakout of 24.960
Indicators
The past week was characterized by substantial consolidation with a move to the upside on the Friday: we consider this price action positive in a view of short-term rises.
MACD and RSI, despite the lack of direction, seem supportive to bullish swings: the first, even with a weakening signaled by the histogram, sees a hinted break of the 0 line (positive momentum) and the RSI is crossing the line of 50 (bullish).
We do not exclude a continued consolidation but we are now in favor of a possible break of the current resistance level and consolidation above the 50MA (yellow line).
Support at 24,000
Resistance at 24.960
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX ended the week down by -0.72%
For the coming week we are in favour of a move tot upisde at least up to ​​14,400-14,600
Indicators
We believe the consolidation of the past week is very positive from a short-medium term upside perspective: in particular we have noticed the trend reversal at 13.900 that could lead the index to regain ground during the coming week.
We believe that a break of the 9MA (red line) could be a good indicator of possible short-term upside.
MACD and RSI, thanks to the declines of the past weeks, have been able to consolidate and seem ready to support bullish swings: the first seems close to breaking the 0 line (positive momentum) and the RSI seems to want to cross the line of 50 (bullish)
We are positive on the DAX and in favour of possible upside in the short term: the break of the bearish trendline could then lead to stronger bullish price action.
Support at 14,150
Resistance at 14.815
S&P500 (#SPX)
The S&P500 had a week down by -2.17%
For the week ahead, we are in favour of a consolidation between 4.420 and 4.500
Indicators
After the sharp decline at the beginning of the week, the SPX consolidated in a tight channel between 4.390 and 4.450: the break of one of these two levels will lead to strong moves in both directions.
MACD and RSI, despite moving to the downside, are now very close to their respective uptrend lines and a possible reversal could then support upsides on the index
We remain positive on the US index also given the strong support area between 4.300-4.350, on which we could eventually expect a rapid decline and subsequent upside reversal.
Support at 4.375
Resistance at 4.535
NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week down by -3.62%
For the week ahead we are in favour of a consolidation between 13,800 and 14,200 with a possible reversal to the upside
Indicators
Despite a bearish week, we believe the overall scenario remains positive and in favour of possible short-term move to the upside.
MACD, above 0 (positive momentum), is now crossing to the downside and the RSI, below 50 (bearish), is now close to its uptrendline which could act as a reversal area.
We are positive on the Nasdaq and believe that the index may be close to a "bottoming" phase in the area of 13,600-14,000.
Support at 14.350
Resistance at 15,000
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES had a week down by -0.41%
For the week ahead, we expect a possible upside to 35,200
Indicators
The index continues to fluctuate on the upper part of the broad bearish channel (yellow points on the chart) and within the wide side band 33.600 - 35.515 (support and resistance) in place since April 2021.
The consolidation above the channel keeps us very positive for a medium-term bullish scenario.
MACD and RSI both positive but slightly slowing: the former has crossed to the downside while remaining above 0 (positive momentum), the RSI is now swinging at the top of the bearish trendline, which we read as a further positive indicator in a bullish type scenario.
A break to the upside of the 35,000 range would confirm the hypothesis of further extensions in the short to medium term.
Support at 33,600
Resistance 35.515
OTB Global Investments
17 Aprile 2022
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