Financial index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
FTSE100 | 7,159 | Cons./ Bullish | 6,960 | 7,300 | 6,830 | 7,470 |
FTSEMIB | 20,933 | Cons./ Bullish | 21,000 | 23,650 | 20,260 | 25,00 |
DAX 40 | 12,865 | Cons./ Bullish | 12,600 | 14,050 | 12,000 | 14,460 |
S&P 500 | 3,863 | Cons./ Bullish | 3,740 | 4,000 | 3,600 | 4,370 |
NASDAQ 100 | 11,983 | Cons./ Bullish | 10,700 | 12,400 | 9,700 | 13,500 |
DOW JONES | 31,288 | Cons./ Bullish | 29,200 | 32,000 | 27,560 | 34,000 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week down by -0.52%
For the coming week we could see a bullish recovery at least up to the 7.300 area
Indicators
Despite a broadly flat weekly performance, we believe there has been a very interesting price action: the continued consolidation above 7,000 we believe could lead to short to medium term upside.
The ongoing consolidation is also allowing MACD and RSI to move higher, forming a positive divergence between indicators and price.
While they are both, MACD and RSI, still in bearish territory, we notice higher lows.
The first target to reach, and exceed, is the resistance at 7.300.
We are positive on the FTSE100 in the short to medium term.
Support at 6.960
Resistance at 7.300
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week down by -3.86%
For the week ahead, we could see a gradual upward recovery to at least 21.500
Indicators
The long support area at 21.000 - 21.500 continues to hold the Italian index: this area was in fact respected both at the end of 2021 and in March 2022.
Despite the creation of a new low in the price action, we still remain in favor of a "bottoming" phase of the index in view of short-medium term rises.
Thesis that we believe to be supported by a positive divergence between indicators and price: in the face of a decreasing price, MACD and RSI are in fact showing higher lows. Despite still being both in bearish territory.
The primary trend still remains strongly to the downside, only a consolidation above the 9MA (red line) at 21,200 could then generate significant upside potential.
We remain positive on the FTSEMIB and believe it could soon see short to medium term upside
Support at 20.700
Resistance at 23.650
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX ended the week down by -1.16%
For the week ahead we could see a bullish recovery to at least 13,400
Indicators
The very short-term bearish channel continues in conjunction with the strong support at 12.600. The price is currently at the top of that channel which we believe may soon be broken to the upside.
The strong bullish candle on Friday makes us lean towards short-medium rises: a possible consolidation above the 9MA (red line) could further support this thesis.
Once we cross the short-term channel, and the 9MA, we believe that a reasonable first target could be the 50MA (yellow line) at 13.600.
MACD and RSI are showing a strong positive divergence with the price: the former has crossed to the upside and the latter is now very close to the 50 (bullish) line.
We remain positive on the DAX40 and believe that the index may soon reverse to the upside.
Support at 12.600
Resistance at 14.050
S&P500 (SPX)
The S&P500 had a week down by -0.93%
For the week ahead, we are in favour of a bullish recovery to at least 4.000
Indicators
We believe the "trading range" between 3.740 and 3.900 is allowing the SPX to consolidate and eventually be able to break to the upside the 50MA (yellow line), which has played the role of dynamic resistance starting from January 2022.
MACD and RSI, in the face of a fairly flat price action, are instead showing higher lows, creating a positive divergence between price and indicators.
MACD, after having crossed the upside, is now close to cross the 0 line (positive momentum) and the RSI is now very close to the 50 line (bullish)
We remain positive on the S&P500 in the short to medium term
Support at 3.740
Resistance at 4.000
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week down by -1.17%
For the week ahead, we believe the index could stretch to at least 12,800
Indicators
The week just ended seems to form an ascending (bullish) triangle, as if to suggest an imminent break of the resistance and breakout of the 50MA (yellow line).
MACD and RSI are supporting the recovery: the former has crossed upwards its respective moving averages and is also signalling a positive divergence with the price. The second, RSI, has just crossed the 50 mark (bullish).
It is important to note the central role played by the 50MA (yellow line) which has represented the main dynamic resistance of the NDX since the beginning of 2022: its overcoming will most likely lead to a trend reversal. However it will be appropriate to wait for confirmation of price in such a way as to avoid "false break" scenarios as at the end of March 2022.
We remain positive on the NASDAQ100 from a short to medium term perspective
Support at 10.700
Resistance at 12.400
DOW JONES (#DJI)
The DOW JONES had a week down by -0.16%
For the week ahead, we are in favour of a bullish continuation to at least 32,000
Indicators
Despite a slightly negative weekly performance, we believe that the price action has been very significant and may open the door to short medium-term rises.
We consider positively that the price ended the week above the 9MA (red line).
MACD and RSI are supporting the bullish recovery of the index, both showing higher lows: the first seems close to breaking the 0 line (positive momentum) and the RSI is very close to breaking the 50 level (bullish)
It is important to note that the main trend remains downward and only a gradual exceeding of the 50MA (yellow line) could lead to a possible change in trend. The price action almost seems to suggest the formation of a side channel between 30.300 and 31.300, which will then give rise to strong price swings.
We remain positive on DOW JONES from a short to medium term perspective
Support at 29.200
Resistance 32.000
OTB Global Investments
17 July 2022
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