Weekly market brief: 19 - 23 July 2021


FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 had a negative week down -1.45%.

For the week ahead we could have a rebound up to 7,060. Should the index instead close below 6.980 we will consider 6.900 as the next target.


Indicators

The index managed to close below the 50MA, an event that had not happened since March 2021 followed after by strong upward swings.

Friday's doji candle represents all the indecision of the moment: a break above the current resistance could lead the index to quickly test the 50MA and possibly even previous levels at 7.165.

On the other hand, a break of 6.980 could instead lead the index to test 6.900


MACD is crossing to the downside which could indicate the bearish moment of the index while the RSI is still in an intermediate phase at 40.


Support at 6,980

Resistance at 7.030


FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB) The FTSEMIB had a week down -1.45%

For the week we confirm the bearish channel but expect a test of 25,000 in the near term


Indicators

The FTSEMIB continues to remain below the 50MA. The MACD is confirming the bearish moment having crossed below 0. RSI has instead formed, together with the price, a higher low than on July 8th.

This could lead, at least in the short term, to a 25,000 test. On the other hand, a close below 24.688 could lead the index to test the current support.



Support at 24.454

Resistance at 24.930


DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week down -1.21%

For the week, a close above 15.600 could bring the index back to 15.736. While a close below 15.500 would instead take it to 15.306.

We will wait for the closure of on one of the two levels to confirm its direction


Indicators

The 50MA has played the role of intermediate support and a close above or below this could offer ideas for future swings.

MACD seems to crossover to the downside but for the moment still above 0, while RSI is not offering particular directions


Support at 15.306

Resistance at 15.736


S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a negative week down by -0.91%

For the week ahead, the index could continue the bearish move till 4.300.


Indicators

The strong distance from the 50MA suggests a possible and gradual reconciliation.

MACD is crossing to the downside supported by a RSI in the same direction.

The index is approaching the low end of the uptrend channel where it could offer long short-term opportunities.


Support at 4,286

Resistance at 4.390


NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

NASDAQ had a negative week down -1.22%

For the week ahead we are in favor of a retest of previous levels at 14.420 and 14.123


Indicators

We believe that the Nasdaq risk/reward is now very much against a long position: despite having a very strong uptrend, looking at previous moves whenever the #NDX has moved more than 5% from the 50MA had then strong bearish movements.


A decisive bearish movement would not mean a change in trend, but rather a physiological rebalancing of the trend.

The MACD appears to want to cross to the downside

The RSI has now reached overbought, the last time was in September 2020


Support at 14,420

Resistance at 14.827


DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES had a week down by -0.31%

For the week ahead, the index could test previous levels to proceed downwards to 34.440 in the short term.


Indicators

The index seems to want to rejoin the 50MA: this could be a positive retracement for future bullish momentum.

MACD is crossing to the downside followed by a RSI in the same situation.


Once we have tested the 50MA, we will evaluate future index fluctuations.


Support at 34.261

Resistance 35.096

OTB Globali Investments

18 July 2021

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