top of page
Glass Buildings_edited_edited.jpg

Weekly market brief: 2 - 6 January 2023


Financial index

Current price

Forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

​FTSE100

7,496

Cons./ Bearish

7,200

7,600

7,100

7,670

FTSEMIB

23,665

Consolidation

22,500

24,850

21,000

25,500

DAX 40

13,857

Consolidation

13,100

14,550

12,650

15,000

S&P 500

3,839

Cons./ Bullish

3,750

4,100

3,600

4,180

NASDAQ 100

10,939

Cons./ Bullish

10,400

12,000

10,000

12,700

DOW JONES

33,147

Cons./ Bullish

31,200

34,500

30,200

35,000

TADAWUL

10,478

Cons./ Bullish

10,000

11,200

9,700

11,700

FTSE ADX

10,211

Consolidation

9,900

10,750

9,680

11,000

DFM

3,336

Cons./ Bullish

3,270

3,500

3,100

3,730

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE100 index had a week down by -0.81%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 7,400-7,500 area


Indicators

Slightly negative week that sees the price remaining above the 5-day average: a positive short-term indicator, even if we believe that the seasonality of the British index will continue to bear witness.


MACD and RSI are still in positive territory


An eventual re-test of the 7,600 is still on the table. At the same time it is important to underline how the British index has repeatedly behaved on regular pattern: recovery following a rebound on the 50-day average (yellow line), to then cut back gains in favour of more marked declines. Proof of that are the periods of January - February 2022 and April - May 2022.


We remain bearish on the FTSE 100 despite a possible short-term upside as risk/reward continues to remain in favour of a test of 7.200-7.100.


Support at 7,150

Resistance at 7,600





FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

FTSEMIB index had a week down by -1.07%

For the week ahead we favour a consolidation in the 24,000-23,600 area


Indicators

Bearish week for the Italian index which continues to fluctuate on the 50-day average (yellow line).

If from a short-term perspective we believe there may be the conditions for a recovery of strength, in the medium term we expect a bearish continuation initially at 22,400 and then continuing till 21,000.


MACD and RSI seem to hint at a possible bullish rebound


Risk/reward continues to be skewed to the downside, without excluding quick upsides.


We remain bearish on the FTSEMIB: November's strong draws have only now begun a retracement phase and we believe that once the 50-day average is cleared at 23,400, the price will continue lower to at least 22,500.


Support at 22,500

Resistance at 24,850


DAX (#DAX)

DAX index had a week down by -0.82%

For the week ahead we favour a consolidation in the 13,900 - 14,100 area


Indicators

Consolidation week for the German index that seems to want to back-test the previous breakout area.

Indeed, the 14,200 level could be a possible intermediate resistance.


MACD and RSI after a bearish phase now seem ready to support a move to the upside.


In the very short term, the German index could give rise to bullish swings which, in our opinion, however, would not go beyond 14,550. The overall scenario we believe is now positioned towards short-medium term declines.


We remain bearish on the DAX and in favor of further market declines. In the short-term we believe there may be a chance for a recovery at least to the breakout point at 14.200 to then continue lower.


Support at 13,100

Resistance at 14,550


S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P500 had a week down by -0.14%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation on the 3,900 area


Indicators

Bearish week which saw the price stay below the 50-day average (yellow line)


The continued price action near the bottom of the Bollinger Band seems to suggest short-term upside which we believe can go as far as the previous breakout area at 3,900.

MACD and RSI after a bearish phase could support the index in a short-term bullish phase.

We are bearish on the S&P 500, despite a possible recovery of strength we prefer to wait for further market reversals until at least 3,650.


Support at 3,750

Resistance at 4,100




NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

NASDAQ 100 index had a week down by -0.42%

We are in favour of a possible upside move to 11,500 for the week ahead


Indicators

Negative week for the Tech index which is now near the October - November lows'.

The continuous swing close to the Bollinger band seems to suggest possible rises to at least 11,500.

MACD and RSI after a bearish phase now seem to lean towards a positive price action, especially looking at the RSI which is now almost oversold.

We are bullish on the NASDAQ 100 in the short term: the current exit from the Bollinger Bands seems to suggest a slight recovery in vigour and then, in our view, continue the bearish swing in the medium term.

Support at 10,400

Resistance at 12,000



DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES index had a week down by -0.17%

For the week ahead we favour a consolidation in the 33,000 - 33,500 area


Indicators

A week of substantial consolidation which saw the price remain on the 50-day average (yellow line).

We believe a plausible scenario is to back-test the previous breakout area at 33,500 and then continue lower.


MACD and RSI are slowing down but seem to be favouring a slight recovery for now.


We remain bearish on the DOW JONES and until the price reaches at least 31,600 the risk/reward will remain skewed in favour of further downsides.


Support at 31,200

Resistance at 34,500


TADAWUL (#TASI)

TADAWUL index had a week up by +2.57%

We are in favour of a recovery to at least SAR 10,750 for the week ahead


Indicators

Positive week for the Saudi index which seems to want to start an upward reversal


As happened in November 2021, the strong distance from the 50-day average (yellow line) could suggest a possible short-term recovery. At the same time it is important to stress that the first obstacle to overcome remains the 9-day average (red line), which has played the role of dynamic resistance in recent months


MACD and RSI are in oversold territory, decreasing the possibility of further short-term downside. Both indicators have started a slight reversal to the upside.


At the moment we prefer to remain neutral on the Tadawul. The strong downside extension makes today's swings very interesting, at the same time we believe it is worth waiting for a consolidation followed by price reversal above at least the 10,550 - 10,600 level.


Support at 10,000

Resistance at 11,200



FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)

FTSE ADX index had a week down by -0.92%

For the week ahead we favour a consolidation in the 10,000-10,400 area


Indicators

A week of slight declines which sees the price respecting the bearish trendline that began in December


Continued swings near the 50-day average (yellow line) could pave the way for a re-test of 10,600.


MACD and RSI mirror the price action and are both very close to going back into bullish territory again.


Specifically, we prefer to wait for a consolidation in the 10,000 -10,400 area and then consider long setups: even a possible retracement to 9,900 could offer interesting opportunities.


We currently remain neutral on the FTSE ADX with a short-term upside bias.


Support at 9,900

Resistance at 10,750


DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)

DFM index had a week up by +0.22%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible recovery to 3,380


Indicators

A week of substantial consolidation for the DFM


Since mid-September, the index has continued to fluctuate within the same trading range of 3,300-3,400, giving no particular direction in the short to medium term.

MACD and RSI both seem to suggest an imminent recovery; while the former indicator is essentially flat, the latter is now moving away from the oversold area.


We currently remain neutral on DFMGI waiting for a break of one of the two levels at 3,330 or 3,400


Support at 3,270

Resistance at 3,500



OTB Global Investments

31 December 2022

2 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All