Financial index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
FTSE100 | 7,016 | Cons./ Bullish | 6,960 | 7,300 | 6,830 | 7,470 |
FTSEMIB | 21,788 | Cons./ Bullish | 21,500 | 23,650 | 20,260 | 25,00 |
DAX 40 | 13,126 | Cons./ Bullish | 13,000 | 14,050 | 12,500 | 14,460 |
S&P 500 | 3,675 | Cons./ Bullish | 3,600 | 3,850 | 3,400 | 4,100 |
NASDAQ 100 | 11,266 | Cons./ Bullish | 10,700 | 12,400 | 9,700 | 13,500 |
DOW JONES | 29,889 | Cons./ Bullish | 29,200 | 32,000 | 27,560 | 34,000 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week down by -3.21%
For the coming week we could see a consolidation in the area of 7.000 followed by a possible reversal to the upside
Indicators
The further bearish week on the UKX brought the index back to the strong support level around the 7.000 area.
MACD and RSI are very extended to the downside with the latter in oversold territory
The series of bearish candles has not yet formed any consolidation or reversal pattern but the strong downward extension combined with the exit from the Bollinger Bands suggests a possible price recovery, as happened in the past.
We believe that the strong support area could act as a reversal zone in this case. Another factor in favor of a price recovery is the marked distance from the 50MA (yellow line).
We remain positive on the FTSE 100 in the short to medium term.
Support at 6.960
Resistance at 7.300
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week down by -1.53%
For the week we could see a consolidation in the area of 21.500 followed by a possible reversal to the upside.
Indicators
The further negative week of the FTSEMIB brings the price back to the lows of the beginning of March.
The downward extension of MACD and RSI, as happened in March, could lead the price to a rapid recovery in the weeks to come. MACD seems to signal a slightly receovery in the histogram and the RSI is still in oversold territory.
As has happened before, the strong bearish trendline in existence since the beginning of the year could play the role of dynamic resistance.
We remain positive on the FTSEMIB also considering the strong downward extension.
Support at 21.500
Resistance at 23.650
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX ended the week down by -3.51%
For the coming week we could see a consolidation in the area of 13,000 followed by a gradual reversal to the upside.
Indicators
The declines continue for the German index which again see the area of 13.000 acting as support.
MACD and RSI are very extended to the downside with the latter close to the oversold area
At the moment, the price is not signaling any consolidation or reversal pattern, at the same time given the strong support level, it is reasonable to expect a reversal for the coming week.
We remain positive on the DAX given the strong support level and the downward extension of internal indicators
Support at 13.000
Resistance at 14.050
S&P500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 had a week down by -3.62%
For the coming week we are in favor of a possible consolidation in the 3.600 area followed by a potential upward reversal.
Indicators
The bearish swings have now brought the price to the strong resistance area (now support) of September-October 2020 continue.
MACD and RSI are very extended to the downside: the former slightly diverging from the lows of early May and the latter now in oversold territory.
We believe that the presence of the strong level of support combined with the downward extension of price and indicators could anticipate a slight recovery in price.
Another factor of interest is certainly the distance from the 50MA (yellow line) which could represent a possible short-term target.
We remain positive on the S&P500 and expect a slight price recovery in the short to medium term.
Support at 3.600
Resistance at 3.850
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week down by -2.25%
For the week ahead, we are in favour of a consolidation in the 11,000 area followed by a possible reversal to the upside.
Indicators
The technology index is again on the bearish trendline and we believe that this could lead to a potential trend reversal
MACD and RSI remain negative with the former slightly diverging when compared with the levels of mid-May and the latter very close to the oversold area.
Given the strong downward extension of the RSI, we believe that the price may not have sufficient strength to break the strong support level but we still believe it is appropriate to wait for price confirmations before evaluating long positions.
We are positive on the NASDAQ in the short to medium term, expecting a turnaround in the area between 11.000 and 12.000.
Support at 10.700
Resistance at 12.400
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES had a week down by -3.14%
For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation in the 30,000 area to then eventually reverse to the upside.
Indicators
The further week of decline brings the DJI price to what was a strong resistance area (now support) in September - November 2020.
MACD and RSI are very extended to the downside with the latter in oversold territory.
Given the concomitance of a strong bearish extension with the strong support level, it is reasonable to expect a price recovery for the following week. In addition, we believe that the marked distance from the 50MA (yellow line) may be a further sign of recovery.
As happened in the past, the exit from the lower Bollinger Band led the DJI to regain ground in the very short term.
Given the strong downward extension, we remain positive on the DJI in the short term.
Support at 39.200
Resistance 32.000
OTB Global Investments
19 June 2022
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