Weekly market brief: 21 - 25 March 2022

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,404	Consolidation	7,170	7,405	6,980	7,520
FTSEMIB	24,222	Consolidation	24,000	24,960	22,900	25,885
DAX 40	14,413	Consolidation	14,150	14,815	13,600	15,500
S&P 500	4,463	Consolidation	4,375	4,535	4,240	4,700
NASDAQ 100	14,420	Consolidation	13,855	14,450	13,050	15,000
DOW JONES	34,755	Consolidation	33,600	35,515	32,400	37,000

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up + 3.64%

For the week ahead, we are in favor of a consolidation between 7,250 and 7,400

Indicators

The strong extension of the week just ended confirms a good recovery of the index. We can see that the FTSE100 has re-entered the 7,405 and 7,170 channels as in the last period of 2021.

After the rises of the last two weeks we could expect a possible consolidation and then, in our opinion, continue the positive trend.

MACD and RSI help us once again to understand the situation: MACD rising, still remains below the 0 line and therefore in bearish “momentum”.

RSI is still respecting the current channel, only a break of it could perhaps signal more strong swings to the upside.

We remain positive but cautious: a brief retracement in the 7.250 area could then give rise to further stretches.

Support at 7,170

Resistance at 7.405

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up by + 4.04%

For the week ahaed we could expect a consolidation between 23,500 and 24,500

Indicators

The gap up made on the 15 and 16 March is certainly a positive indicator of an upward trend, but the lateralization that followed at the end of the week is less convincing.

We expect high volatility with a bullish outcome in the medium term: the strong distance from the 50-day moving average makes us more inclined towards upward rather than downward price action.

MACD and RSI, both recovering: the former, despite a recovery in strength, still remains below the 0 line, describing a bearish “momentum”. RSI managed to break the bearish trend line and is now approaching the 50 level.

The FTSEMIB after regaining the level of 24,000 could consolidate in the very short term and then continue to the upside: short-medium term target remains 25,200-25,500, level that seats on the bearish trendline still in place since January 2022.

Support at 24,000

Resistance at 24.960

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up + 4.12%

For the week ahead, we could see a consolidation between 14,200 and 14,500

Indicators

After the strong upsides of the past weeks, we believe that the DAX can slow down and then, in our opinion, continue higher.

MACD and RSI are both recovering: the former crossed to the upside but still remains well below 0 (negative momentum) and the latter broke the bearish trendline in place since November 2021 and is now at the 50 level.

It should be noted that the index is now close to the bearish trendline that began in January 2022 on which we expect a gradual break, probably with a lateral movement.

Support at 14,150

Resistance at 14.815

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week up by + 6.11%

For the week ahead we confirm a possible consolidation between 4.350 - 4.470

Indicators

The week just ended saw the upward break of the bearish trend that began in January 2022: this break was also supported by the MACD and RSI indicators which, in our opinion, herald a positive scenario for the short - medium term.

MACD crossed to the upside but is currently still below the 0 line (negative momentum) and RSI has also broken the bearish trend line upwards.

Given the important breaks, both on the price and on the indicators, we believe that the index can retrace slightly by carrying out a back-test of the previous breaking points and then continue rising.

Specifically, a retracement in the area of 4.375 could then give rise to further upside.

Support at 4.375

Resistance at 4.535

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up + 8.97%

For the week ahead, we expect a possible consolidation between 14,000 and 14,450

Indicators

Volatility, in our opinion, will still remain high on the technological index. The upward break of the bearish trendline is a good indicator that can herald a change of pace in the short to medium term.

Given the strong price action, especially in the last two sessions, we could expect a lateralization first and then a continuation of the bullish price action: a possible consolidation is also supported by the concomitance with the 50-day moving average (often area of concentration).

MACD and RSI are both picking up, especially the second is now above the 50 line

Support at 13,855

Resistance at 14.450

DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES had a week up + 5.09%

For the week ahead, we expect a possible consolidation between 34,800 and 34,400

Indicators

After this week, the index has returned to the top of the broad bearish channel and within the broad side band 33,600 - 35,515 in existence since April 2021.

Given the strong upside of the last three days, combined with the coincidence of the 50-day moving average, we believe that the index may retrace slightly and then continue upwards.

MACD and RSI supported the rise in the index, which makes the scenario positive for the short-medium term: in particular, the latter broke the long bearish trendline that began in November 2021.

Specifically, we believe that a slight retracement to at least 34,000 can lead to subsequent bullish price action.

Support at 33,600

Resistance 35.515

OTB Global Investments

20 March 2022