Financial index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
​FTSE100 | 7,385 | Bearish | 7,000 | 7,400 | 6,850 | 7,600 |
FTSEMIB | 24,675 | Bearish | 22,500 | 24,850 | 21,000 | 25,500 |
DAX 40 | 14,431 | Bearish | 13,100 | 14,550 | 12,650 | 15,000 |
S&P 500 | 3,965 | Cons./ Bearish | 3,750 | 4,050 | 3,600 | 4,180 |
NASDAQ 100 | 11,677 | Consolidation | 10,400 | 12,000 | 10,000 | 12,700 |
DOW JONES | 33,745 | Cons./ Bearish | 31,200 | 34,150 | 30,200 | 35,000 |
TADAWUL | 11,053 | Consolidation | 11,000 | 11,950 | 10,800 | 12,270 |
FTSE ADX | 10,434 | Cons./ Bearish | 9,900 | 10,750 | 9,680 | 11,000 |
DFM | 3,352 | Consolidation | 3,270 | 3,500 | 3,100 | 3,730 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE100 index had a week up by +0.92%%
For the week ahead we favour a retracement to the 7,200-7,250 area
Indicators
Positive week for the British index which sees the price keep staying near the strong level of 7,400.
We can see that the price finished the week just above the 200-day moving average (blue line) however we believe there is not enough strength and conditions to proceed further up.
MACD and RSI are now very extended to the upside: the former sees a slowdown in the histograms and the RSI continues to remain in overbought territory.
The general context remains very delicate and we believe it needs a retracement before possibly aiming for 7,600.
We are bearish on the FTSE 100 and waiting for substantial downside before considering long positions.
Support at 7,000
Resistance at 7,400
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB index had a week up +0.42%
For the week ahead we favour a retracement to the 23,300 area
Indicators
Positive week for the Italian index which continues to stay near the strong area of ​​24,850
If in the medium-long term these last moves upwards are certainly positive, in the short term we believe that the price is now very extended to the upside and that it may need significant reversals before proceeding further.
MACD and RSI are now as well extended upwards with the latter in particular in overbought territory (a scenario that has not happened since November 2021 which was followed by strong declines).
We are bearish on the FTSEMIB as we believe the overextension in price and internal indicators shift the weight in favour of retracements rather than repeated upward pressure.
The index is also far from all the main moving averages making the surrounding scenario unstable and subject to significant reversals.
Support at 22,500
Resistance at 24,850
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX index had a week up +1.46%
We are in favour of a progressive retracement to 13,800 for the week ahead
Indicators
Positive week for the German index which keeps the price close to the resistance level at 14,550 respecting the horizontal channel in place since February-March 2022
MACD and RSI are now very extended to the upside with the latter in the overbought area: this aspect radically shifts the risk/return in favour of possible short-term downsides.
We see a possible retracement area at 13,600, not excluding a stronger drop to 13,100
We are bearish on the DAX and in favour of possible short-term reversals
Support at 13,100
Resistance at 14,550
S&P500 (SPX)
The S&P500 had a week down -0.69%
For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation on the 3,800 - 3,900 area
Indicators
Week of substantial consolidation that keeps the price below the 200-day average (blue line)
Given the indecision candles at the end of the week, it is desirable to expect a consolidation rather than a bullish continuation: the short-medium term target remains the long bearish trendline at 4.000-4.100 and we believe that this can be reached after the occurrence of a possible reversal/backtest.
We are positive on the S&P 500 and believe there is room for further upside, at the same time we believe it is appropriate to wait for price consolidation/drawback before considering long setups.
Support at 3,550
Resistance at 3,900
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
NASDAQ 100 index had a week down by -1.18%
For the week ahead we favor a consolidation in the 11,200 - 11,600 area
Indicators
Consolidation week for the Tech index which brings the price back into the narrow trading range 11,800-11,600.
The close above the 50-day average (yellow line) is an excellent indicator of possible short-medium term increases. Added to this are the internal indicators MACD and RSI which seem to support the recovery of strength of the index: the former is marking higher lows and the RSI is now back above 50.
We are positive on the NASDAQ 100 and waiting for a consolidation above 11,600: once above, we see 12,000 and 12,700 as short to medium term targets.
Support at 10,400
Resistance at 12,000
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES index had a week down by -0.01%
For the week ahead we favour an initial retracement to the 32,800 area
Indicators
Week that keeps the index at the levels of August 2022 and above the 200-day moving average.
At the same time, the strong distance from the 50MA (yellow line) keeps us cautious on the latest strong upside extensions.
MACD and RSI are now very extended to the upside with the latter in overbought territory.
In addition, we believe it is interesting to point out how the recent October price action's is very similar to the one recorded in August: we are not alluding to new lows in the DJI but we believe there is a fair probability of a retracement at least close to the 50MA, i.e. around 31,000 - 31,500.
A retracement of this magnitude would present an overall encouraging scenario in favor of medium-term increases.
We are bearish on the DOW JONES given the strong upside extension, further extensions would make the situation even more fragile and less sustainable. We look forward to a retracement in price and internal indicators, along with a possible reconciliation with the major moving averages.
Support at 31,200
Resistance at 34,150
TADAWUL (#TASI)
TADAWUL index had a week down by -0.80%
For the week ahead we are in favour of a consolidation in the area of SAR 11,000 - 11,200
Indicators
Bearish week for the Saudi index which is now testing the strong support at 11,000
The 50-day moving average (yellow line) continues to represent a strong dynamic resistance
The MACD and RSI have both reversed to the downside with the latter nearing the oversold area.
Regarding the RSI, we believe it is important to point out a positive divergence with the September lows.
At the moment we prefer to remain neutral on the Tadawul, although the 11,000 - 11,250 area has in the past been a buy zone we prefer to wait for a consolidation and price reversal.
Support at 11,200
Resistance at 12,270
FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)
FTSE ADX Index had a week down by -1.54%%
We are in favour of a consolidation in the 10,200 area for the week ahead
Indicators
A week that we believe can only mark a first initial reversal after the strong upward moves of the last month.
MACD and RSI remain very extended to the upside shifting the risk/reward in favour of possible downsides rather than repeated extensions.
At the moment we prefer to remain neutral on the FTSE ADX, the strong upside extension is positive from a medium to long-term perspective. At the same time, before evaluating long positions we believe it is appropriate to wait for the price to stabilise: a return to the 10,200-10,300 area could be a backtest zone.
Support at 9,900
Resistance at 10,750
DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)
DFM index had a week down by -1.62%
For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible continuation up to 3,500
Indicators
Negative week for the DFM which seems to see the price break out of the most recent trading range
MACD and RSI paint an encouraging scenario as they are both curving up.
A possible consolidation above 3,400 could lead the price to reach mid-September levels again.
Given the recent swings we are slightly positive on the DFMGI, from which we could expect a short-term recovery.
Support at 3,270
Resistance at 3,500
OTB Global Investments
20 November 2022
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