Weekly market brief: 22 - 26 November 2021

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7.224	Bearish/ Cons.	7.220	7.330	6.980	7.405
FTSEMIB	27.733	Bearish	26.750	27.870	26.184	28.700
DAX 40	16.160	Bearish	16.094	16.260	15.980	16.450
S&P 500	4.698	Bearish/ Cons.	4.600	4.720	4.550	4.800
NASDAQ 100	16.573	Bearish/ Cons.	15.700	16.620	15.152	16.600
DOW JONES	35.602	Consolidation	35.455	35.772	34.800	36.482

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week down -1.58%

For the week we expect a possible consolidation between 7,150 and 7,220

Indicators

Retracement week for the FTSE100 which has now tested the previous, and strong, level of 7,220.

For the week we expect a consolidation between this level and the 50MA to then eventually reverse to the upside.

MACD, reversed to the downside but still remains above 0

RSI, after leaving the overbought zone, is now at 45: intermediate resistance level tested several times in the past.

In the event that the index remains above the 50MA, we could expect strong bullish swings in the short term.

This week's retracement was very positive as it allowed the price to rejoin the moving averages and indicators to leave the overbought areas.

Support for 7,220

Resistance at 7,330

FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week down -1.27%

For the week we remain in favour of a retracement to 26,750

Indicators

The strong bearish candles at the end of the week are, in our view, the start of a possible downturn to 26.750, the previous resistance level now support.

MACD has just crossed to the downside along with the RSI which is now fluctuating at the 50 level.

The current support level is close to the 50MA: we consider 26,750 - 26,500 as a good level of bullish reversal for the FTSEMIB.

Support for 26,750

Resistance at 26,870

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up + 0.39%

For the week ahead, we expect a slight decline to 15,980

Indicators

The German index pushed up again mainly thanks to the weakening of the EUR / USD exchange rate over the past week.

In our view, the last two bearish candles herald a slight retracement at least to previous resistance levels.

MACD is about to cross to the downside and RSI, still overbought, is gradually moving lower.

We identify the first level of reversal at 15.980. If it would be exceeded, we will aim at 50MA for further long positions.

A bearish week would allow the price to rejoin the moving averages and the MACD and RSI indicators to move away from overbought areas.

Support for 16.094

Resistance at 16,260

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week with a slight increase of + 0.07%

For the coming week, the index could retrace at least to 4,600

Indicators

The SPX continued to fluctuate between the 9MA and the current resistance level, forming what could be an ascending triangle.

While the ascending triangle is a bullish continuation figure, the MACD and RSI indicators remain more in favour of a short-term downside.

MACD is close to a bearish cross and the RSI still remains in the overbought zone

This scenario is also combined with a strong distance from the average at 50MA

For the week ahead, we will therefore look at the narrow price channel the index is moving in: a close above 4,700 could open the door to further bullish moves, conversely a break and close below 4,980 would bring the SPX to test 4,640 and then 4,600.

Support for 4,600

Resistance at 4,720

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up + 2.03%

For the week ahead, we expect a retracement to 16,200

Indicators

The NASDAQ managed to reach a new high, exceeding the levels reached at the beginning of November: this confirms the strong bullish push of the index but does not exclude retracements in the short term.

MACD has been reporting an almost absence of momentum for half a month, diverging with the price which has reached new highs.

RSI, slightly diverging from the price, has once again reached the overbought area.

We remain bullish on the NASDAQ but prefer to wait for a rejoin with the moving averages, together with MACD and RSI indicators not in overbought areas, for long positions.

Support for 16,450

Resistance at 16,620

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES had a week down -1.70%

For the week ahead, we expect a consolidation at 35,500 - 35,300

Indicators

The Dow Jones is one of the US indices that is respecting more regular retracement formations: in fact, after an initial decline, it has tested intermediate levels again and then targeted a strong resistance area.

We believe that the DJI is now close to consolidation to then reverse higher towards the previous highs: we expect a consolidation between 35,500 and 35,300, above the 50MA

MACD has widely crossed to the downside and the RSI is now below 50.

Support at 35.455

Resistance 35,772

OTB Global Investments

20 November 2021