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Weekly market brief: 23-27 August 2021


FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 closed the week with a decline of -1.13%.

We expect a recovery to 7,140 for the week ahead.


Indicators

This week the FTSE broke through the 7,165 level to reach a major support area at 7,000

Looking at previous fluctuations, the index could retest the 7,140 before making strong moves in either directions.


The reconciliation with the 50MA and the inversion formation on the 100MA were positive sign of rebound formation: both confirmed strong support levels.

More bearish scenario is given instead by the MACD which crossed to the downside and could herald a subsequent descent.

RSI stopped at 44, a strong support area and seems to want to regain ground.


A crucial role will be played by the 50MA, a close above this at the beginning of the week could bring the index to 7,140. On the contrary, should the FTSE fail to surpass it, we will aim for 7,000 as a short-term target.


Support for 6.980

Resistance at 7,165


FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a negative week down by -2.08%

For the coming week we expect a consolidation between 26,050 and 25,750


Indicators

The index has made a slight retracement to the strong support area, the price could now consolidate and then break one of the two strong levels between 26.050 and 25.750: a more bullish scenario sees the last two daily candles as a possible "bottom" formation” to then resumed on the upside.

A more bearish scenario, on the other hand, is described by the MACD which has just crossed to the downside and could herald a continuation of the selling pressure.


RSI has stopped at an important support level, as previously seen the level of 50 acts as a barrier for bearish or bullish movements.


Given the divergence of opinions between price and indicators, we will wait for a break of one of the two levels for better clarity.

Support at 25,554

Resistance at 26.184

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week down -0.45%

For the week ahead, the price could consolidate between 15.900 and 15.736


Indicators

The DAX managed this week to rejoin the 50MA, which lead to short-term long positions.

The price and the last two daily candles suggest a “bottoming” formation and a continuation of the recovery up to at least 16,000.


While the formation of candles offers a bullish scenario, the MACD and RSI indicators suggest more bearish moves in the short term.

MACD is in fact about to cross to the downside together with the RSI which broke the support level at 56 and, according to past swings, this has led the index to test lower levels.


The divergence between price and indicators makes us remain cautious on weekly fluctuations by monitoring the intermediate levels of 15.900 and 15.736


Support for 15,736

Resistance at 16,050


S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week down slightly by -0.20%.

For the coming week we expect a continuation to 4,460


Indicators

The index respected the rising wedge formation with a strong reversal almost on the 50MA. The bullish inversion could continue to 4.460 and then consolidate.


The 50MA once again is confirmed as strong support level.

MACD after the crossover to the downside seems to want to regain ground along with a RSI that could support a slight recovery in the short term.


Despite the recovery of the last two days, it is likely that for the week ahead the price will consolidate between 4,460 and 4,400.



Support at 4.390

Resistance at 4.468


NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week with a slight decline of + 0.08%

For the week ahead, the price could moves between 15,140 and 14,900


Indicators

The NASDAQ managed to rejoin the 50MA and then reversed to the upside.


MACD and RSI are both in strong divergence with the price, as they are reporting a gradual loss of strength while the price has remained substantially unchanged in the last month.


Should the RSI manage to break the bearish trend line, we could see new highs in the NASDAQ. A further positive note is given by a possible "ascending triangle" formations if we combine the rising lows of June 23, July 19 and August 19


Support at 14.827

Resistance at 15.226

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES had a week down -0.57%

For the coming week, we expect a slight bullish continuation to 35,300


Indicators

The index has once again rebounded on the 50MA, a strong support area.


MACD crossed to the downside confirming the bearish moment of the index.

The RSI at 50 suggests a slight recovery, at least in the short term.


For the DOW JONES we expect a consolidation between 35,300 and 34,900. Note that if the index will swing out of the bullish channel, we could see a more strong decline to 34,000.


Support for 35,096

Resistance 35,455

OTB Global Investments

21 August 2021