Financial index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
FTSE100 | 7.494 | Bearish | 7.405 | 7.520 | 7.330 | 7.600 |
FTSEMIB | 27.061 | Consolidation | 26.750 | 27.406 | 26.000 | 27.975 |
DAX 40 | 15.603 | Cons./ Bearish | 15.450 | 15.736 | 15.040 | 15.980 |
S&P 500 | 4.398 | Consolidamento | 4.376 | 4.535 | 4.245 | 4.720 |
NASDAQ 100 | 14.438 | Cons./ Bullish | 14.426 | 15.330 | 13.855 | 16.015 |
DOW JONES | 34.265 | Cons./ Bullish | 34.200 | 35.515 | 33.600 | 36.522 |
S: Supporto R: Resistenza
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week down -1.13%
We are still in favor of a retracement to 7,405 for the week
Indicators
On Friday, the FTSE100 broke above the 9-day average, bringing a slight downward pressure on the index.
We believe that this movement is only the beginning of a more marked retracement.
As also highlighted last week, doing a "cross-asset" analysis we can see how the weakening of the financial and energy sector is gradually putting pressure on the English index as well.
MACD has crossed to the downside and the RSI and next has a descent below the 50 line, after breaking the bullish trendline.
Despite a strong upward primary trend, we believe an ideal retracement would first lead to the 50-day average and then continue to 7,250 at the bottom of the uptrend channel.
Support at 7.405
Resistance at 7,520
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week down by -2.18%
For the week we could expect a consolidation between 26,750 and 27,100
Indicators
This week's swings saw the FTSEMIB break the strong support at 27.406, now resistance.
Note the close of Friday's candle below the 50-day average, which underlines the short-term bearish pressure.
MACD crossed to the downside and the RSI broke the uptrendline, also breaking above the 50 line.
The breakdown of the strong support, combined with internal indicators, makes us think that the index could consolidate between the 50-day average and the new support at 26,750, and then eventually proceed to the downside.
The primary trend remains positive but for the moment we believe that the Italian index still has room for further declines.
Support for 26,750
Resistance at 26.406
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX ended the week down -2.16%
For the week ahead, we expect a possible consolidation between 15,450 and 15,736
Indicators
The German index has a certain regularity in its fluctuations, having been on a horizontal channel since May 2021.
Following previous swings, we believe that the index can now consolidate between the new support and the 50-day average and then continue the short-term downtrend.
Indicators confirm this swing with a MACD close to a breakout of the 0 line and an RSI already in bearish territory.
Support for 15,450
Resistance at 15,736
S&P500 (#SPX)
The S & P 500 had a week down by -4.93%
For the coming week, the index could consolidate between 4,376 -4,500
Indicators
This week the S & P500 broke the strong bullish channel for the first time, both the long-term one in existence since October 2020 and the shorter one that started in October 2021.
The strong break can be read as an indicator of a change in trend for the short-medium term in which we can expect a large lateralization or a continuation to the downside.
At the moment we note that the downward pressure of the week has reached a strong support area at 4.376, from which it is plausible to expect a slight upward recovery also considering the strong distance from the 50-day average and above all considering the concomitance with the average. to 200 days.
MACD and RSI are very extended to the downside with the latter in oversold territory.
At the moment it is too early to say what the short-medium term trend will be, but we can confirm that the primary bullish trend was broken during the week.
The concomitance of oversold indicators and price on the 200-day average suggest a slight short-term recovery perhaps to the previous support level, now resistance, at 4.535.
Support for 4,376
Resistance at 4,535
NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week down -6.51%
For the week ahead, we expect a possible recovery of up to 15,000
Indicators
The tech index this week broke the long bullish channel and passed the 200-day average.
The strong bearish pressure has slowed to the strong support level of the June - October 2021 period which we believe will give the index a period of consolidation after the last few weeks.
The trend reversal is clear and we believe that now the NDX can retest previous breaking levels and then eventually continue downward.
MACD and RSI (oversold) are now very extended to the downside and taking a reverse approach we could expect a recovery in strength over the week.
A realistic recovery could see the index rejoin at least the 200-day average: if exceeded with adequate volumes, it could also perform a "back test" of the previous support, now resistance, at 15,330
Support for 14.226
Resistance at 15,330
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES had a week down -4.10%
For the coming week, we expect a consolidation of between 34,200 and 35,000
Indicators
The DJI is currently at a strong support level which, in our view, could see the index consolidate slightly before any bearish continuation.
MACD and RSI are both very extended to the downside, with the latter oversold: looking at previous swings, reaching the oversold zone has then led to rapid bullish movements in the short term.
The closing below the 200-day average can still be read as a change in "sentiment" in the market but the downward extension combined with the distance from the 50-day average suggest a week of consolidation before any further progress. bearish.
Support to 34,200
Resistance 35,515
OTB Global Investments
22 January 2022
Comments