Weekly market brief: 27 February - 3 March 2023

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,878	Cons./ Bearish	7,400	8,050	7,200	8,160
FTSEMIB	26,986	Cons./ Bearish	24,800	27,900	24,000	28,400
DAX 40	15,209	Cons./ Bearish	14,200	15,500	13,800	15,800
S&P 500	3,970	Consolidation	3,750	4,200	3,600	4,300
NASDAQ 100	11,969	Consolidation	11,000	12,700	10,500	13,300
DOW JONES	32,816	Consolidation	31,200	34,500	30,200	35,000
TADAWUL	10,153	Consolidation	10,000	11,200	9,700	11,700
FTSE ADX	9,765	Consolidation	9,680	10,300	9,680	11,000
DFM	3,419	Consolidation	3,270	3,500	3,100	3,730

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE100 index had a week down by -1.57%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 7,750 - 7,800 area

Indicators

Negative week for the British index that has now broken the upside trendline in place since October 2022.

The upward extension is still very strong and we can expect a consolidation in the 7,750 -7,800 for the week ahead. This area is important because of the confluence of 50MA (yellow line) as well as concentration of volume from end of January price action.

MACD and RSI have left overbought condition and they are approaching negative territory.

The risk-reward still remain unbalanced toward the downside and we’ll have to see how the price will behave on the 50MA.

We remain bearish on the FTSE100 given the over-extension to the upside and we rather wait for a first dip below 7,800.

Support at 7,400

Resistance at 8,050

FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB index had a week down by -2.76%

We are in favour of a consolidation between 26,000 - 26,500.

Indicators

Negative week for the Italian index that seems to repeat the price action that took place toward December 2022: floating on the 20MA (purple line) to than fall on the 50MA (yellow line).

MACD and RSI have left overbought condition and could keep the index on a short term horizontal channel.

The risk/reward still remain unbalanced in favour of a possible market reversal if we assume 28,000 as the medium-term target.

In the short term we can expect a backtest of the 26,000 area.

We remain neutral on the FTSEMIB, the upward move in recent months is positive and seem to mark a change of pace. At the same time, we believe it is necessary to wait for a reversal followed by consolidation before considering long setups.

Support at 24,800

Resistance at 27,900

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX index had a week down by -1.76%

We are in favour of a consolidation in the 15,000 area for the week ahead

Indicators

Negative week for the German index that keeps floating within the tight trading range in place since January 2023 between 15,000-15,500.

There are two main reasons that keep us caution on the current price action: firstly, the spike in volumes on a strong move to the downside could pave the way for more selling activities. Secondly, the DAX is the only index that hasn’t yet broken to the downside.

MACD and RSI are approaching negative territory.

A plausible short-term target we believe to be 15,000 which can then play as a reversal point or first step in view of a more substantial retracement.

We remain neutral on the DAX40 and waiting for a break below 15,000

Support at 13,800

Resistance at 15,500

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P500 index had a week dow by -2.67%

We are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 4,000 area for the week ahead

Indicators

Negative week that saw the price moving within a very strong intermediate area at 4,000

Given the high volume concentration on the 4,000 level, we expect the price to possibly consolidate before any move in either direction.

MACD and RSI, after a long upward phase, are curving to the downside with the second one in negative territory.

The recent bull run has been positive but we would feel much more comfortable if the price could manage to retrace at least to 3,900 before evaluating long setups.

We are neutral on the S&P 500 and waiting for a price consolidation.

Support at 3,750

Resistance at 4,200

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ 100 index had a week down by -3.14%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 12,000 - 12,250 area

Indicators

Negative week for Tech index that saw the price retracing on the previous resistance level at 12,000.

A bounce on this level could pave the way for higher highs on the index but we need to understand if the price will actually manage to curve to the upside.

MACD and RSI are slowing down with the second one in negative territory,

If in the medium term, the price action of the last few months could be positive, in the short term we believe that the best strategy is to remain neutral and/or create liquidity. If indeed we are seeing a change of pace, we would rather wait for a backtest of previous breakout points than chase the price to the upside.

We are neutral on the Nasdaq with a light bias towards a backtest of the 11,600 area.

Support at 11,000

Resistance at 12,700

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES index had a week down by -2.99%

We are in favour of a consolidation in the 33,000 area for the week ahead

Indicators

Negative week for the industrial index that now sees the price on the strong intermediate support at 32,800.

As per previous price action, we could see a recovery of strength till 33,600. At the same time, if the price would not hold a rapid fall at 32,000 could create interesting long setups

MACD and RSI have fallen with the second one near oversold territory.

We remain neutral on DJI with a short-term bias to the upside.

Support at 31,200

Resistance at 34,500

TADAWUL (#TASI)

TADAWUL index had a week down by -3.75%

We are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 10,300 area.

Indicators

Negative week for the Saudi index that is now approaching the strong support level at 10,000.

On such a strong support level, we believe there are high chances of a price consolidation to then possibile revert to the upside.

MACD and RSI are in negative territory with the second one in oversold condition.

We are back to neutral on TADAWUL and waiting for price to recover ground.

Support at 10,000

Resistance at 11,200

FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)

FTSE ADX index had a week down by -1.19%

For the week ahead we could see a regain of the 10,000 mark

Indicators

Negative week that sees the bearish trendline being respected

Before considering a possible long positions, we believe the price should recover ground at least above the 10,000 level.

MACD and RSI are now very extended to the downside with the latter recovering slightly.

We are bullish on the FADGI but prefer to wait for an initial phase of consolidation which seems to be ongoing.

Support at 9,680

Resistance at 10,300

DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)

DFM index had a week down by -1.12%

For the week ahead we could see a consolidation on the 3,400 level.

Indicators

Week of retracement that sees the price now backtesting the intermediate support at 3,400

A possible consolidation on the 50MA at 3,360 could offer interesting long setups.

MACD and RSI are back at an almost neutral territory.

We remain neutral on the DFMGI and looking forward to a consolidation within the 3,400 area.

Support at 3,270

Resistance at 3,500

OTB Global Investments

26 February 2023