Weekly market brief: 27 June - 1 July 2022

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,209	Cons./ Bullish	6,960	7,300	6,830	7,470
FTSEMIB	22,119	Cons./ Bullish	21,500	23,650	20,260	25,00
DAX 40	13,118	Cons./ Bullish	13,000	14,050	12,500	14,460
S&P 500	3,912	Cons./ Bullish	3,850	4,100	3,600	4,370
NASDAQ 100	12,105	Cons./ Bullish	10,700	12,400	9,700	13,500
DOW JONES	31,500	Cons./ Bullish	29,200	32,000	27,560	34,000

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up by + 2.74%

For the week ahead we could see a bullish continuation to at least 7.300

Indicators

The bottoming in the area of 7.000 has led the index to finally put in place a recovery .

Seen the strong push, a possible retracement on 7.120 could then bring the UKX to resume its move the upside: the first target is at the resistance level at 7.300.

Once broken, we believe that the second short-medium term target can be represented by the 50MA (yellow line) at 7.400.

MACD and RSI seem to support a recovery in strength of the index with the former recovering and the latter exiting the oversold area.

It should be noted that despite the positive performance, MACD is still below 0 (negative momentum) and the RSI below 50 (bearish)

We are positive on the FTSE100 in the short to medium term.

Support at 6.960

Resistance at 7.300

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up by + 1.52%

For the week we could see a gradual recovery to the upside to at least 23.000

Indicators

We believe the consolidation on the strong support level at 21.500 is a very positive signal for a short-medium term push to the upside.

The close above the 9MA (red line) could in fact lead the index to a substantial rise.

The first target to be reached is undoubtedly the bearish trendline at 22.500. Once broken the index could stretch at least up to the 50MA (yellow line) to 23.650.

MACD and RSI suggest an upside scenario as the former is now close to a crossover of its moving averages and the latter is showing a positive divergence with the price action.

We remain positive on the FTSEMIB and believe that this consolidation phase could lead to short to medium term gains.

Support at 21.500

Resistance at 23.650

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week down by -0.06%

For the week ahead we could see a bullish recovery to at least 13.600

Indicators

We see the consolidation around the strong support at 13,000 as a positive signal for the short to medium term.

The first barrier to overcome is the 9MA (red line), which could already happen at the beginning of the week. Once broken, we believe that a reasonable target could be represented by the "gap down" formed on June 10th at 13.600

MACD and RSI seem to support a bullish recovery of the index with the former close to an upward crossing and the latter in positive divergence with the price (lower lows in the price and higher highs in the RSI).

We remain positive on the DAX40 and believe that this consolidation phase could give rise to a bullish price action.

Support at 13.000

Resistance at 14.050

S&P500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week up by +6.45%

For the week ahead, we are in favour of a bullish continuation to at least 4.100

Indicators

The positive week of the US index, also supported by an increase in volumes, we believe may be a positive sign for the short to medium term.

The "trading range" between 3.850 and 4.100 could allow the SPX to consolidate to then, eventually, be able to break to the upside the 50MA (yellow line), which has played the role of dynamic resistance since January 2022.

MACD and RSI are supporting the bullish push with the former near a bullish crossover and the latter very close to breaking the 50 (bullish) line.

After a possible consolidation at the beginning of the week, we believe that the SPX could continue to rise afterwards.

We remain positive on the S&P500 in the short to medium term

Support at 3.850

Resistance at 4.100

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up by +7.45%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a bullish continuation to at least 12.800

Indicators

We believe the positive week of the Tech index may have marked the bottom at least for the short-medium term: the rebound occurred on the upper part of the bearish trendline we believe is a further positive sign.

Given the strong rises of the last few days, the index could consolidate slightly to then proceed upwards: specifically, a retracement of 11.600 could be a good intermediate support area.

MACD and RSI are supporting the recovery in strength: the former is crossing to the upside and is also signalling a positive divergence with the price. The RSI has instead reached the threshold of 50 (bullish) which in the past played the role of resistance: after a slight consolidation we believe that this level can in fact be broken to the upside.

Despite an encouraging setup, it is important to point out that the trend is still downward, only a gradual break above the 50MA (yellow line) could lead to a trend change.

We remain positive on the NASDAQ100 for the short to medium term

Support at 10.700

Resistance at 12.400

DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES had a week up by + 5.39%

For the week ahead, we are in favour of a bullish continuation to the 33.000 area

Indicators

A bullish week, supported by increasing volumes, we believe to be a positive short-medium term signal.

A price action above the 9MA (red line) could give rise to subsequent rises at least up to the 50MA (yellow line) which has been playing the role of dynamic resistance since January 2022.

MACD and RSI are supporting the bullish push of the index with the former close to a bullish crossover of its moving averages and the latter near the 50 line (bullish).

Given the strong rises at the end of the week, we believe the index may slightly lateralize to then continue upwards.

It is important to note that the main trend remains downward and only a gradual move above the 50MA (yellow line) could lead to a possible change in trend.

We remain positive on DOW JONES from a short-medium term perspective

Support at 29.200

Resistance 32.000

OTB Global Investments

26 June 2022