Weekly market brief: 28 February - 4 March 2022

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,489	Consolidation	7.405	7.520	7.295	7.600
FTSEMIB	25,773	Consolidation	25,260	26,350	24,450	27,405
DAX 40	14,567	Consolidation	15,040	15,450	14,815	15,736
S&P 500	4,385	Consolidation	4,245	4,376	4,175	4,535
NASDAQ 100	14,189	Consolidation	13.855	14.426	13.445	15.330
DOW JONES	34,059	Consolidation	33.600	34.200	33.260	35.515

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week down -0.82%

For the week we are in favor of a consolidation between 7,450 and 7,520

Indicators

The British index respected the uptrend channel in place since August 2021 with a strong reversal at 7,200.

Following the strong fluctuations of the past few days, we could expect a consolidation phase for the week ahead.

The reason for the possible consolidation can be seen in the rapid reaching of the previous breaking point at 7.520: basically, after such a fast back-test on it can see an even stronger reversal or a short-term consolidation below what is became the new resistance (and former support).

MACD is breaking below the zero line, which could herald further bearish pressures. RSI, after reaching the oversold zone, reversed to the upside and is now at 50.

Support at 7,405

Resistance at 7.520

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week down by -3.34%

For the week we could expect consolidation between 25,600 and 26,200

Indicators

Following the strong break at 26.350, we believe that now the Italian index can carry out a back-test followed by a consolidation phase below it.

The bearish trendline in existence since January 2022 continues to be respected, only a break to the upside could confirm a change in trend.

MACD and RSI are both very extended to the downside: to monitor how the RSI will behave near the bearish trend line.

We believe this downward extension could lead to rapid reconciliation with the 9-day average (now at 26,200) or the bearish trendline (possible contact point at 26.350).

Support at 25,260

Resistance at 26.350

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week down -4.03%

For the week ahead, we expect a consolidation between 14,500 - 14,900

Indicators

The strong break in the horizontal channel in place since March 2021 could be both an indicator of a short to medium-term directional change and an opportunity to start building buying positions.

In the short term, we believe that the index may consolidate below the strong breaking point at 14.845 before being able to proceed in either direction. The bearish trendline in existence since January 2022 continues to be respected: only a break of it could lead us to hypothesize a bullish recovery and subsequent change in trend.

MACD and RSI are very extensive to the downside: adopting a reverse approach we could also think that they are close to a change of pace (to the upside). In our opinion, the RSI remains a very important indicator where we see a bearish trendline in existence since November 2021 that has been faithfully respected in recent months: a break in it could support the thesis of a change in trend.

Support at 14.130

Resistance at 14.815

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S & P 500 had a week up by + 0.12%

For the week ahead, the index could consolidate between 4.300 - 4.400

Indicators

For the week ahead, given the strong swings of the past few days, we could see some consolidation before further moves.

In order to better understand the short-medium term direction, we have drawn trendlines both on the index and on the relevant indicators.

The price, despite an excellent inversion at almost 4,100, continues to respect the bearish trendline in place since January 2022: only its overcoming, together with confirmations given by MACD and RSI, could lead to a change in trend.

MACD and RSI, if we compare the levels of the lows of January 24 and February 24, we notice an interesting positive divergence on the SPX. In particular for the RSI, we will wait for the upward break of the trendline to support the thesis of a short to medium term trend change.

Support at 4.245

Resistance at 4.376 (kept unchanged despite a slightly above price)

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up + 0.14%

For the week ahead, we expect a possible consolidation between 14,000 - 14,400

Indicators

After a strong recovery in recent days, we believe that the technological index may consolidate below the current level of resistance: this scenario would lead to a gradual exceeding of the 9-day average with possible rises in the short term.

We can see a positive divergence between the MACD and RSI indicators, if we compare the price and indicator levels between January 24 and February 24, 2022: at a lower price, we have instead seen rising lows for MACD and RSI.

In particular, we believe the second may be of significant importance: the break of the level of 50 could allude to a change in the short-medium term trend.

Support at 13,855

Resistance at 14.426

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES had a week down by -0.54%

For the week ahead, we expect a consolidation of between 34,300 - 33,800

Indicators

The strong downward fluctuations have created a third low in the short-medium term price fluctuation: also considering past fluctuations, we believe that the price may now consolidate slightly before further movements.

MACD and RSI also confirming the bearish moment, where in particular in the latter it is possible to notice a downward trend line still in place.

At the moment the index still remains in the balance between a bearish continuation or an upward reversal: we will use price confirmations and indicators to support one of the two theses.

Support at 34,200

Resistance 35.515

OTB Global Investments

27 February 2022