Weekly market brief: 28 June - 2 July 2021



FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 had a positive week up + 2.47%.

For the coming week we are confident in a continuation of the uptrend with a first target at 7.165 and then aim at 7.215


Indicators

The 50MA once again proved to be a strong support area that allowed the FTSE 100 to break out of the current resistance level.

MACD, after losing ground, always wanting to cross to the upside again along with a RSI which, having tested 44, now has ample room to support bullish moves.


The final target in the short term is 7.215: here the index could form a "double top" and then move downwards, or consolidate and then continue the upward march.


Support at 7,122

Resistance at 7.165


FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a positive week up + 1.99%

For the week, we believe the FTSEMIB still has upside potential by aiming for 25.850 in the near term.


Indicators

As previously happened, the 50MA played the role of strong support allowing the index to continue the bullish channel started in November 2020.


MACD appears to crossover to the upside along with a RSI which has room to support bullish swings.

At the moment, the FTSEMIB has stopped at an intermediate support area that could lead the index to a short rebound. The most important area, and our target for any long positions, is the one at 24.930. Level of the 50MA and which has often played the role of strong support for bullish momentum.


The index, after strong sales which stopped at 24.930, consolidated between 25.070 and 25.420: the break of this last level, which took place on Friday, makes us think of a break of the current resistance and target at 25.850.


Support at 25,554

Resistance at 24.930


DAX (#DAX)

The DAX closed up + 1.70%

For the week we expect a bullish move up to 15.736.


Indicators

As for other European indices, the 50MA proved to be strong support for bullish swings to the upside.

MACD seems to want to crossover supported by a consolidating RSI that could point to 60 during the first trading sessions of the week.


Compared to other indices, the rebound on the 50MA was less vigorous which could signal a consolidation between 15.540 and 15.736. This setup has already been repeated in the past where the DAX has often moved with a series of "rise-consolidation-rise".

As in the past, we believe this consolidation phase is forming the basis for further bullish swings.


Support at 15.135

Resistance at 15.540


S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P500 had a positive week up by + 2.50%

For the week ahead, we expect a test of 4.250 to then continue to the upside. A missed rebound could take the S&P500 to 4,200.


Indicators

Even on the #SPX, the 50MA played a strong support.

The MACD appears to want to cross to the upside after a broadly flat month. The RSI, on the other hand, is showing a strong divergence with the price: comparing the levels from April 16 to today we see how the RSI has moved downwards while the index has moved upwards. This strong divergence could lead to further bearish swings in the short to medium term


Support at 4,250

Resistance at 4.286


NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

NASDAQ had a positive week up + 2.44%

For the week ahead we are in favor of a bearish move to 14,200, where we will then evaluate future targets.


Indicators

The MACD is proceeding steadily upwards and we cannot get much more information from it, we can perhaps see a slight decrease in the trend.

The indicator that offers the most information is the RSI: at this level, the #NDX had generally turned downwards.

Looking at the chart, we realize that the Nasdaq has not been overbought since September 2020 but stopped at an RSI between 67-70 to then start bearish moves: we believe the conditions are in place for this setup to be repeated.


Support at 14.123

Resistance at 14.420


DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES had a week up + 2.95%

For the coming week we expect a continuation of the uptrend with a target, in the short term, of 34.800


Indicators

Unlike other markets, in this case it was the 100MA that played the supporting role. Subsequently, the upside break of the 50MA confirmed, in our opinion, the bullish recovery of the index.

The MACD seems to crossover to the upside and exceed the 0 threshold: this would confirm a positive momentum for the #DJI.

After rebounding from oversold, RSI is approaching the bearish trend line that began in mid-April 2020: a break of the trendline could support even more upward moves.


Support at 34.261

Resistance 34,800


OTB Global Investments

26 June 2021


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