Weekly market brief: 31 January - 4 February 2022

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7.466	Consolidation	7.405	7.520	7.330	7.600
FTSEMIB	26.565	Consolidation	26.000	26.750	25.475	27.406
DAX 40	15.319	Cons./ Bullish	15.040	15.450	14.815	15.736
S&P 500	4.432	Bullish	4.376	4.535	4.245	4.720
NASDAQ 100	14.454	Cons./ Bullish	14.426	15.330	13.855	16.015
DOW JONES	34.725	Bullish	34.200	35.515	33.600	36.522

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up + 0.13%

For the week we are in favour of a consolidation between 7,405 and 7,520

Indicators

After testing the 50MA, the British index closed the week below the 9-day average. We believe that by being between two short-medium term moving averages could give credit to a period of consolidation with possible bearish continuations.

MACD and RSI both point to the downside: in particular the second backtested the previous support area (now resistance) at 57 and then reversed to the downside.

The slight divergence between internal indicators and price makes us remain cautious on the FTSE100, believing that it is better to wait for the break of one of the two support/resistance levels to better understand the medium-term direction.

From a quick cross-asset analysis, however, it must be pointed out that the price of oil is heavily overbought: its retracement could negatively impact the UKX.

Support at 7.405

Resistance at 7,520

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week down -1.27%

For the week we could expect a consolidation between 26,400 and 26,750

Indicators

The Italian index managed to backtest the previous breaking point at 26,750.

MACD and RSI have reversed to the downside with the former below the 0 line, confirming the bearish moment of the trend, and the latter after reaching oversold continues to respect the short-term bearish trendline.

Given the exceeding of the 50-day average, we could expect a similar oscillation to the period November - December 2021 with a brief consolidation below the average and then test the support area again.

A first indicator of short-term recovery could be the rupture of the RSI

At the moment, the price fluctuation does not offer many directions and we prefer to wait for confirmation from internal indicators and / or moving averages.

Support to 26,000

Resistance at 26,750

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week down -1.27%

For the week ahead, we expect a possible consolidation between 15,600 and 15,300

Indicators

The German index has a certain regularity in its fluctuations, having been on a horizontal channel since May 2021.

Looking at previous swings, we might expect a consolidation below the 50-day average.

MACD and RSI, despite being both bearish, can offer ideas for a slight recovery to the upside: in particular the latter, with a break of the bearish trendline, could signal upside in the short term.

Support for 15.040

Resistance at 15,450

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week up by + 2.3%

For the week ahead, the index could test the 4,500 level

Indicators

After the strong bearish price action, the index is gradually recovering ground, exiting the oversold area.

The price also looks close to breaking out of the 9MA, which could be read as a slight short-term recovery.

MACD and RSI, after having extended to the downside, are slowly reversing upwards: in particular, at the beginning of the week we could expect the breakdown of the bearish trend line in the RSI.

Given the sharp decline in recent weeks, we could expect a back-test of the breaking areas: for the S&P 500, we identify 4,535 as the area in which the index could consolidate and then reverse again to the downside.

Support for 4,376

Resistance at 4,535

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up + 1.80%

For the week ahead, we expect a possible recovery till 15,000

Indicators

Consolidation week for the technological index after the strong moves of the past few weeks. From support and resistance analysis, the area between 13,855 and 14,426 can be considered as an accumulation before a short term bullish recovery.

MACD and RSI, after the strong downward extensions, seem to suggest a recovery of strength in the short term: in particular, from the RSI it is possible to notice the break of the short-term bearish trendline while the one started in November 2021 is still intact.

We believe that the movements on the RSI can serve as confirmation of the bullish price action.

Specifically, to give credit to a recovery in vigour we should see a break of the 9-day average at the beginning of the week: once exceeded, the short-term target could be the previous breaking point at 15,000 - 15,250 and then eventually reverse to the downside.

Support for 14.226

Resistance at 15,330

DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES had a week up + 2.54%

For the week ahead we expect a bullish continuation to 35,200 - 35,500

Indicators

The area of 33,600 - 34,200 again played the supporting role. Friday's broad, bullish candlestick suggests a positive continuation for the week ahead.

An exceeding of the 9-day average would confirm a possible rise in the short term

MACD and RSI after a strong downward extension, seem to support a recovery of strength in the short term: to monitor the intermediate resistance at 50 of the RSI which could coincide with short lateralization of the index.

It should be noted that the area of 35,200 - 35,500 represents the strong breaking point of the previous weeks: the possible back test could then generate subsequent declines

Support to 34,200

Resistance 35,515

OTB Global Investments

30 January 2022