Weekly market brief: 31 October - 4 November 2022

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,047	Consolidation	6,850	7,200	6,700	7,400
FTSEMIB	22,529	Cons./ Bearish	20,700	22,800	20,000	25,000
DAX 40	13,340	Cons./ Bearish	12,200	13,600	11,500	14,000
S&P 500	3,901	Cons./ Bearish	3,550	3,900	3,400	4,100
NASDAQ 100	11,546	Consolidation	10,400	12,000	10,000	12,700
DOW JONES	32,861	Cons./ Bearish	30,170	33,250	29,170	34,150
TADAWUL	11,755	Consolidation	11,250	12,270	10,900	12,650
FTSE ADX	10,274	Cons./ Bearish	9,615	10,200	9,160	10,500
DFM	3,349	Cons./ Bearish	3,270	3,500	3,100	3,730

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE100 index had a week up by + 1.12%

For the week ahead, we are in favour of a consolidation between 7,050 - 7,150

Indicators

Positive week for the British index which continues to fluctuate in the wide trading range 6,850 - 7,100.

The 50-day moving average (yellow line) continues to be a major obstacle to overcome and we do not believe it will be overcome in the week to come.

MACD and RSI are recovering but have signalled a slight weakening in recent sessions.

We remain neutral on the FTSE100, the scenario is improving and the consolidation above the 7,000 level is certainly positive.

At the same time, the extended series of indecision candles keeps us cautious and waiting for a more favourable and robust setup.

Support at 6,850

Resistance at 7,200

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB index had a week up by + 4.46%

For the coming week we are in favour of consolidation in the area of 22,000

Indicators

Positive week for the FTSEMIB which confirms the break of the long bearish trendline in place since the beginning of 2022.

Generally, when a break of this importance occurs, the price action tends to carry out a back-test before continuing upwards: we believe this scenario will occur also in this occasion.

MACD and RSI are supporting the recovery of the index, at the same time it should be noted that the RSI is now in (almost) overbought territory: this could anticipate a possible short-term downward pressure.

After the strong rises, we remain neutral on the FTSEMIB and await a retracement to previous levels which, for the moment, we identify in the area 21,500 - 22,000.

Support at 20,700

Resistance at 22,800

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX index had a week up by + 4.03%

For the coming week we are in favour of consolidation in the area of 12,800

Indicators

Positive week for the German index which brings the price back to the top of the bearish channel.

The overall scenario is certainly positive but we believe it is too early to establish a possible turnaround.

MACD and RSI are in fact now quite extended to the upside, with the latter in overbought territory: looking at past swings we can in fact see a setup very similar to the one in August.

After the strong gains, we remain neutral on the DAX40 as we await a possible retracement and slowdown of internal indicators

Support at 12,000

Resistance at 13,600

S&P500 (SPX)

The S&P500 index had a week up by 2.46%

For the coming week we are in favour of a possible consolidation in the area of 3,900-3,800

Indicators

Positive week for the SPX which managed to overcome the tight trading range 3,500 - 3,700: if overall the scenario is positive, on the other hand we must also expect a possible slowdown in the index before further upside moves.

As already seen in the past, the price extension outside the Bollinger bands can lead to both a lateral swing and/or a retracement on previous breaking points.

MACD and RSI are recovering but it should be noted that the RSI is very close to the overbought area.

After the last stretches, we remain neutral on the S&P500 and await a consolidation.

Support at 3,550

Resistance at 3,900

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

The NASDAQ 100 index had a week up by + 2.09%

For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation in the area of 11,500

Indicators

Positive week for the Tech index which sees the price consolidating above the 5-day moving average (red line) and which could pave the way for short-medium term rises.

The internal MACD and RSI indicators are recovering and could therefore support the index to the upside.

We are positive on the NASDAQ 100, at the same time the trading range 10,800 - 11,600 continues to be respected and the scenario remains unchanged from the end of September till today: the narrowing of the Bollinger bands confirms a strong volatility at the gates that could give rise to medium term long setups.

Support at 10,400

Resistance at 12,000

DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES index had a week up by + 5.76%

For the coming week we are in favour of a retracement in the area of 31,500

Indicators

Very positive week for the DJI which resulted in the price staying on the top of the Bollinger band for the whole week.

MACD and RSI are now very extended to the upside with the latter in broad overbought territory.

The strong extension of both price and internal indicators makes us remain very cautious on the DJI and awaiting its retracement: for the moment we believe that a possible area could be that of 31,000 - 31,500 in which we find both the average at 50 days ( yellow line) is the break point that led to the strong bullish extension.

We remain neutral on the DOW JONES and keen to expect short-term declines.

Support at 30,170

Resistance at 33,250

TADAWUL (#TASI)

The TADAWUL index had a week down by -0.21%

For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation in the area of SAR 11,800 - 11,400

Indicators

A week that saw the Saudi index reverse its most recent rises near the resistance at 12,000

The reversal near the 50-day moving average (yellow line) confirms the latter as dynamic resistance and a substantial underlying negativity.

MACD and RSI are both contracting with the former close to a bearish crossover.

At the moment we prefer to stay neutral on the Tadawul to see if the price will manage to hold above 11,400.

Support at 11,250

Resistance at 12.270

FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)

The FTSE ADX index had a week up by + 1.71%

For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation in the area of 10,000

Indicators

Positive week for the ADX which sees the price testing again the strong resistance area at 10.300.

MACD and RSI are positive although we believe it is worth noting that the RSI is now in overbought territory, shifting the risk/reward in favour of possible retracements.

At the moment we prefer to remain neutral on the FTSE ADX, the exiting from the Bollinger bands in fact makes us lean towards a possible retracement at least up to 10,000 - 9,900 which could give rise to possible long setups.

Support at 9,615

Resistance at 10,200

DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)

The DFM index had a week down by -1.45 %%

For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation in the area of AED 3,350 - 3,300.

Indicators

A week of consolidation that continues to keep the price below the 50-day moving average (yellow line): if on the one hand its overcoming could give rise to interesting upsides, a price drop below 3,300 could lead to new bearish volatility.

MACD and RSI describe a neutral and directionless scenario.

We remain neutral on the DFM and await better directionality

Support at 3,270

Resistance at 3,500

OTB Global Investments

31 October 2022