Weekly market brief: 4 - 8 July 2022

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,169	Cons./Bullish	6,960	7,300	6,830	7,470
FTSEMIB	21,335	Cons./Bullish	21,000	23,650	20,260	25,00
DAX 40	12,831	Cons./Bullish	12,600	14,050	12,000	14,460
S&P 500	3,825	Cons./Bullish	3,740	4,000	3,600	4,370
NASDAQ 100	11,586	Cons./Bullish	10,700	12,400	9,700	13,500
DOW JONES	31,097	Cons./Bullish	29,200	32,000	27,560	34,000

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week down by -0.56%

For the coming week we could see a bullish recovery at least to the area of 7.300

Indicators

A week that we could describe as a consolidation of the index after the June sell-off. From a short-term perspective, starting from 17 June, we can see higher highs and lows, which are certainly a positive signal but not sufficient to establish the end of the downward pressure.

MACD and RSI appear to be supporting a recovery in strength but both remain still negative / bearish territory.

We are positive on the FTSE100 and in favor of a recovery in strength at least up to the 7.400 area: this area coincides with the 50MA (yellow line) which could play the role of dynamic resistance.

Support at 6.960

Resistance at 7.300

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week down by -3.56%

For the week ahaed we could see a gradual push to at least 22.500 - 23.000

Indicators

The long support area at 21.000 - 21.500 continues to support the Italian index: this area was in fact respected both at the end of 2021 and in March 2022.

The negative performance of the week just ended could possibly create positive divergences between indicators and price which are, in our opinion, positive in the short to medium term.

The first target to be reached is undoubtedly the bearish trendline at 22.500, followed by a stretch at least up to the 50MA (yellow line) at 23.650.

MACD and RSI suggest an upside scenario as the first is close to an upward crossing of the moving averages and the second is in positive divergence with the price: the positioning of these indicators in fact does not represent the new low reached in June and make us rule out the positive divergences.

We remain positive on the FTSEMIB and believe that this downturn can lead to rapid short to medium term gains.

Support at 21.000

Resistance at 23.650

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week down by -2.33%

For the week ahead we could see a bullish recovery to at least 13.600

Indicators

The very short-term bearish channel continues which, given the area of strong support, could lead to a reversal to the upside.

The reversal candle on Friday almost seems to allude to short-medium term rises but we believe it is appropriate to wait for the break of the 9MA(red line).

Once the short-term channel is broken, we believe that a reasonable first target is the 50MA (yellow line).

We believe MACD and RSI are both in slight positive divergence with the price: the first suggests an improvement in the histograms and the second at a decreasing price we have seen a substantially flat fluctuation.

We remain positive on the DAX40 and believe that the index may soon reverse to the upside.

Support at 12.600

Resistance at 14.050

S&P500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week down by -2.21%

For the week ahead, we are in favour of a bullish continuation to at least 4,000

Indicators

The short to medium term scenario we believe is remaining unchanged, the strong recovery of two weeks ago saw the one just closed reporting a slight retracement.

Physiological retracement and, perhaps, useful in avoiding overbought situations and excessive volatility in the market.

We believe the "trading range" between 3.740 and 4.000 will allow the SPX to consolidate and then be able to break up the 50MA (yellow line), which has played the role of dynamic resistance since January 2022.

MACD and RSI are supporting the bullish push with the former crossing its moving averages upwards and the latter very close to breaking the 50 (bullish) line.

We remain positive on the S&P500 in the short to medium term

Support at 3.740

Resistance at 4.000

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week down by -4.30%

For the week ahead, we are in favour of a bullish recovery to at least 12.400

Indicators

We believe the week just ended may only be a retracement after the strong bullish price action of two weeks ago.

The intermediate support identified at 11.600 appears to be holding and we expect a resumption of vigour in the technology index for the coming week.

MACD and RSI are supporting the recovery: the former has crossed its respective moving averages upwards and is also signalling a positive divergence with the price. The second, RSI, has instead reached the threshold of 50 (bullish) which in the past played the role of resistance: after a slight consolidation we believe that this level can in fact be exceeded.

However, it is important to point out that the trend is still downward, only a gradual break of the 50MA (yellow line) could generate a change in trend.

We remain positive on the NASDAQ100 in the short to medium term

Support at 10.700

Resistance at 12.400

DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES had a week down -by 1.28%

For the week ahead, we are in favour of a bullish continuation to the 33.000 area

Indicators

As with other US peers, we believe the week just ended has played the role of retracement.

In a short to medium term scenario, we believe that the DJI is undergoing a “bottoming” phase that could lead to a reversal to the upside.

The fact that the 9MA (red line) is holding and playing the role of dynamic support we believe is a very good indicator of a possible trend change.

MACD and RSI are supporting the bullish recovery of the index, both recording higher lows.

It is important to note that the main trend remains downward and only a gradual break of the 50MA (yellow line) could lead to a possible change in trend.

We remain positive on DOW JONES from a short-medium term perspective

Support at 29.200

Resistance 32.000

OTB Global Investments

2 July 2022