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Weekly market brief: 5 - 9 September 2022


Financial index

Current price

Forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

​FTSE100

7,281

Consolidation

7,150

7,500

7,100

7,630

FTSEMIB

21,921

Consolidation

20,700

23,650

20,000

25,000

DAX 40

13,050

Consolidation

12,840

14,000

12,000

14,460

S&P 500

3,924

Consolidation

3,900

4,300

3,740

4,600

NASDAQ 100

12,098

Consolidation

12,400

13,500

11,100

14,255

DOW JONES

31,318

Consolidation

31,200

34,000

30,000

35,100

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week down by -1.97%

For the coming week we could see a consolidation between 7,150 and 7,300


Indicators

Week of declines in the British index which has now brought the price below the 50MA (yellow line), marking a possible bearish continuation for the weeks to come.


At the moment we do not rule out a scenario similar to that of June - July 2022 where the index continued its decline until it tested the strong support at 7,000.


MACD and RSI confirm the negative momentum of the index, however, not excluding a brief recovery in strength given the sale-off of the last few days: the former is slipping below 0 (negative momentum) and the RSI is now very extended to the downside.

It is precisely this last indicator that does not exclude a possible rebound before further declines.


We prefer to remain neutral on the FTSE100 and await a possible 7,000 test before considering long setups.


Support at 7,150

Resistance at 7,500




FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up by + 0.12%

For the following week we could see a consolidation in the area of ​​21,000 - 22,000


Indicators

A week that once again sees respected the strong bearish channel in place since the beginning of 2022.

The price is currently on the 50MA (yellow line) which we believe cannot withstand this latest bearish pressure.


It is very important now to understand how the index will behave in the area of ​​21,000, which played the role of reversal to the upside in July: in fact, the index could create a new low in the area of ​​20,000 (respecting the bearish channel) or reverse to the upside again (with possible positive divergences with internal indicators).


At the moment it is too early to know which option will prevail on the market. However, we note a strong trend reversal in internal indicators: MACD seems close to a descent below 0 (negative momentum) and the RSI is now below 50.


We remain neutral on the FTSEMIB and look forward to its possible consolidation in the area of ​​21,000


Support at 20,700

Resistance at 23,650


DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up by + 0.61%

For the week ahead, we could see a consolidation between 12,600 and 13,000


Indicators

Week that saw the German index get very close to the lows of June - July 2022. The bearish trend that started in January 2022 still remains intact and we do not rule out a break of the strong support at 12,600.


MACD and RSI are both negative: the former is now below 0 (lower momentum), the RSI is close to the oversold area.


Given the extension of the RSI together with the strong support at 12,600, the index could rebound with a brief recovery of strength before continuing further declines.


We remain neutral on the DAX pending its consolidation or break of 13,500 before considering any long setup


Support at 12,600

Resistance at 14,050


S&P500 (SPX)

The S&P500 had a week down by -3.29%

For the coming week we could see a possible consolidation in the area of 3,900


Indicators

Bearish week on the US index which is now below the 50MA (yellow line) almost signalling a possible bearish continuation.


MACD and RSI both signal the loss of strength of the index with the first already slipped below 0 (bearish momentum) and the second close to the oversold area.


While on one hand the strong downward extension of the RSI could suggest a possible resumption of upward vigour, on the other hand the strong Friday's sale off could lead to further declines at the beginning of the week


We remain neutral on the S&P500 and waiting for the price to consolidate.


Support at 3,900

Resistance at 4,300


NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week down by -4.02%

For the week ahead, we believe the index will consolidate in the area of 12,000


Indicators

Bearish week for the Tech index which now sees the price below the 50MA (yellow line), underlining the bearish period: the strong Friday's bearish candle does not exclude further declines that we believe may find a possible reversal in the area of 11,600, previous breaking point to the upside in July 2022.


MACD and RSI both signal a loss of strength of the index with the former just below 0 (bearish momentum) and the latter very extended to the downside.


Given the strong downward extension, we do not rule out a quick and limited in time recovery, at the same time we prefer to remain neutral on the NASDAQ100 and waiting a possibile consolidation at 11.600.


Support at 12,000

Resistance at 13,500


DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES had a week down by -2.99%

For the coming week we could see a possible consolidation in the area of 31,000


Indicators

Bearish week that now sees the price below the 50MA (yellow line) signalling even more the bearish period.


MACD and RSI confirm the bearish period with the first slipping below 0 (negative momentum) and the second very close to the oversold area.

We believe it is appropriate to monitor the RSI with the price action: reaching the 20 and 30 area could anticipate possible trend reversals.


We remain neutral on DOW JONES and await its consolidation


Support at 31,200

Resistance 34,000

OTB Global Investments

3 September 2022

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