Index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
FTSE100 | 7.122 | Bullish/ Cons. | 6.980 | 7.220 | 6.825 | 7.330 |
FTSEMIB | 25.938 | Bullish/ Cons. | 25.820 | 26.750 | 24.935 | 27.406 |
DAX 40 | 15.170 | Consolidation | 15.040 | 15.736 | 14.815 | 15.980 |
S&P 500 | 4.538 | Bullish/ Cons. | 4.484 | 4.600 | 4.369 | 4.720 |
NASDAQ 100 | 15.712 | Bearish/ Cons. | 15.700 | 16.620 | 15.180 | 16.770 |
DOW JONES | 34.580 | Bullish/ Cons. | 34.250 | 34.800 | 33.700 | 35.455 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week down -0.05%
For the week we expect a possible consolidation between 7,080 and 7,200
Indicators
This week confirmed the 6.6980 as support and the 50MA as a strong resistance area: the break of one of the two levels could therefore lead to strong swings.
The series of rising lows of the last few days suggests a gradual recovery in the short term which could then culminate in a break of the 50MA.
While the price is posting higher lows, MACD and RSI still show a bearish situation and slight consolidation. MACD after having crossed to the downside is now fluctuating below 0 highlighting the negative momentum of the index.
RSI, after leaving the oversold zone, is now fluctuating below 50: a break of which could also coincide with the end of the bearish trend line in place since 11/11.
We are in favour of a recovery in the FTSE 100, supported by a rally in the MACD and RSI.
Support for 6.980
Resistance at 7,220
FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week down -1.08%
For the week we remain in favour of a slight upside to at least 26,400
Indicators
The week of consolidation confirmed the importance and strength of the bullish trendline in existence on the FTSEMIB since November 2020.
In our view, this consolidation could soon lead to a recovery in strength and a short-term upside with a target of 27,200.
MACD, despite being below 0, may soon reverse to the upside. With the exception of March 2020, it is at this level that the two averages have begun a gradual recovery.
RSI, after leaving the oversold area, managed to break the bearish trendline: this could be a harbinger of a change in trend.
We confirm the support and resistance levels and are in favour of a gradual recovery in the medium term.
Support at 25,820
Resistance at 26,750
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX ended the week down -1.83%
For the week ahead, we expect a possible consolidation between 15,100 and 15,400
Indicators
We confirm consolidation levels for the week ahead, especially after Friday's engulfing candle which could lead to slight bearish pressure earlier in the week.
MACD, after the bearish crossover, continues to remain below the 0 line and the RSI continues to fluctuate in the oversold zone.
Unlike the FTSE 100 and FTSEMIB, on the DAX 40 we remain more cautious as we await a bullish confirmation that could come from a close above 15,400.
Should the index break 15,100, we believe that the recovery could be very fast and sudden as seen in the past.
Support for 15.040
Resistance at 15,736
S&P500 (#SPX)
The S&P 500 had a week down by -2.28%
For the week to come, the index could begin the bullish recovery moving between 4,520 and 4,600
Indicators
The past week confirmed 4.484 as a strong support level: we believe that the SPX is creating the basis for a bullish recovery in the short term, by "bottoming" at this level.
While the price appears to be consolidating, the MACD and RSI indicators still remain bearish: MACD is fluctuating on the 0 line while the RSI still cannot move away from the strong support at 43.
We are in favour of a bullish recovery once the price is also supported by internal indicators.
Support for 4,484
Resistance at 4,600
NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week down -3.23%
For the week ahead, we expect a possible consolidation between 15,400 and 15,800
Indicators
The NASDAQ continued the bearish push, ending the week with an "engulfing" candle that may suggest a continuation even at the beginning of the week.
The MACD and RSI indicators continue to be bearish: the first one is approaching the 0 line and the RSI has just crossed the 50 level.
It should be noted that, despite the US 10-year yields we lost 7% on Friday, the NASDAQ also closed lower.
Before long positions, we prefer to see consolidation which we currently expect to be at the 50MA level.
Support at 15,700
Resistance at 16,450
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES had a week down -1.64%
For the week ahead, we expect a bullish recovery till 35,000
Indicators
The strong consolidation of the past week confirms that the upward trendline in place since April 2021 can serve as a basis for a recovery in the short term.
MACD, after crossing the 0 thresholds, seems to want to recover to the upside followed by a RSI that has left the oversold area and its is now approaching the bearish trendline.
An upward crossing of both indicators would be more supportive of an upside in the short term.
We are in favour of a bullish recovery at least up to the 9MA, which coincides with 35,000: a close above this level could then lead the index to consolidate below the 50MA.
Support at 34,800
Resistance at 35,455
OTB Global Investments
5 December 2021