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Weekly market brief: 6 -10 March 2023


Financial index

Current price

Forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

​FTSE100

7,947

Cons./ Bearish

7,400

8,050

7,200

8,160

FTSEMIB

27,963

Cons./ Bearish

24,800

27,900

24,000

28,400

DAX 40

15,578

Cons./ Bearish

13,800

15,800

13,400

16,200

S&P 500

4,045

Consolidation

3,750

4,200

3,600

4,300

NASDAQ 100

12,290

Consolidation

11,000

12,700

10,500

13,300

DOW JONES

33,390

Consolidation

31,200

34,500

30,200

35,000

TADAWUL

10,227

Consolidation

10,000

11,200

9,700

11,700

FTSE ADX

9,906

Consolidation

9,680

10,300

9,680

11,000

DFM

3,420

Consolidation

3,270

3,500

3,100

3,730

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE100 index had a week up by +0.87%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 7,900 area


Indicators

Positive week for the British index that has now broken the upside trendline in place since October 2022.


The upward extension is still very strong and we can expect a consolidation in the 7,900 for the week ahead. This area is important because of the confluence of 50MA (yellow line) as well as concentration of volume from end of January price action.

MACD and RSI have left overbought condition and keep weakening: negative divergence with the price action.


The risk-reward still remain unbalanced toward the downside and we’ll have to see how the price will behave on the 50MA.

We remain bearish on the FTSE100 given the over-extension to the upside and we rather wait for a first dip below 7,800.

Support at 7,400

Resistance at 8,050



FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB index had a week up by +3.21%

We are in favour of a consolidation in the 28,000 area.

Indicators

Positive week that fully recover recent weakness and seems willing to proceed higher.

MACD and RSI keep being in overbought area and in negative divergence with the price action

The risk/reward still remain unbalanced in favour of a possible market reversal if we assume 28,000 as the medium-term target.

In the short-medium term we keep a target to the downside at 26,000.


We remain neutral on the FTSEMIB, the upward move in recent months is positive and seem to mark a change of pace. At the same time, we believe it is necessary to wait for a reversal followed by consolidation before considering long setups.


Support at 24,800

Resistance at 27,900


DAX (#DAX)

The DAX index had a week up by +2.55%

We are in favour of a consolidation in the 15,400 area for the week ahead


Indicators

Positive week for the German index that seems willing to test resistance area at 15,800.


We remain skeptical on the index as we see internal weakening but a price action that keep pushing to the upside.

MACD and RSI are in negative divergence with the price action.

A plausible short-term target we believe to be 15,000 which can then play as a reversal point or first step in view of a more substantial retracement.

We don’t want to chase price action, therefore we remain neutral on the DAX40 and waiting for a break below 15,000


Support at 13,800

Resistance at 15,800


S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P500 index had a week up by +1.90%

We are in favour of a possible continuation to 4,100


Indicators

Positive week that saw the price recovering the upward trendline in place since October 2022.


The last two trading days reported good volumes coming in which could push the index higher. At the same time it’s important to notice that the price didn’t go anywhere since November 2022: we are still consolidating between 3,900-4,100


MACD and RSI are neutral with a light upward momentum


Given the reversal on the 50MA (yellow line), we could see an upward move with target at 4,100 and 4,200


We are neutral on the S&P 500 with a bias toward the upside for the short term.

Support at 3,750

Resistance at 4,200



NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ 100 index had a week up by +2.68%

For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible continuation till 12,500-12,700


Indicators

Positive week for the Tech index that saw the price bouncing on the 50MA (yellow line).

The price action is promising and we could see a continuation till the resistance level.


MACD and RSI are back to neutral with an possible upward momentum.


Despite a short term positive upward move we prefer to remain neutral on the NASDAQ 100 as an ideal scenario could see a consolidation phase in the 11,500 area to then proceed higher for the medium-long term.


We are back to neutral on the Nasdaq.


Support at 11,000

Resistance at 12,700


DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES index had a week up by +1.75%

We are in favour of a possible continuation to 34,000


Indicators

Positive week for the Industrial index as the price keep moving between the large trading range 32,800 - 34,400 in place since November 2022.

In the short term we could see a positive continuation however the lack of direction leave us very caution on the event of sudden sell off.

MACD and RSI are recovering ground and they could sustain the index on an upward move


We remain neutral on DJI with a short-term bias to the upside.


Support at 31,200

Resistance at 34,500


TADAWUL (#TASI)

TADAWUL index had a week up by +1.23%

We are in favour of a possible upward move till 10,500.


Indicators

Positive week for the Saudi index that saw the a perfect price reversal on the strong support level at 10,000.


MACD and RSI are leaving the oversold area and they are moving upwards together with the price action.


In the short term we see 10,500 and 10,750 as two possible targets. On a more technical level, the recent slow down of the 50MA that has started to flattening in recent weeks could pave the way for a price recovery.

Given the extension to the downside, especially on a weekly basis, we are more keen towards a price recovery.


We are bullish on the TADAWUL.

Support at 10,000

Resistance at 11,200


FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)

FTSE ADX index had a week up by +0.49%

For the week ahead we could see a regain of the 10,000 mark


Indicators

Positive week that sees the price approaching the bearish trendline in place since November 2022


Before considering a possible long positions, we believe the price should recover ground at least above the 10,000 level.

MACD and RSI are now very extended to the downside with the latter recovering slightly.


We are bullish on the FADGI but prefer to wait for an initial phase of consolidation which seems to be ongoing.


Support at 9,680

Resistance at 10,300


DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)

DFM index had a week up by +0.04%

For the week ahead we could see a consolidation on the 3,400 level.


Indicators

Neutral week that keep seeing the price consolidating on the intermediate support at 3,400


A possible consolidation on the 50MA at 3,360 could offer interesting long setups.


MACD and RSI are back at an almost neutral territory.


We remain neutral on the DFMGI and looking forward to a consolidation within the 3,400 area that could open the doors to a bullish medium term scenario.


Support at 3,270

Resistance at 3,500


OTB Global Investments

5 March 2023