Financial index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
​FTSE100 | 7,947 | Cons./ Bearish | 7,400 | 8,050 | 7,200 | 8,160 |
FTSEMIB | 27,963 | Cons./ Bearish | 24,800 | 27,900 | 24,000 | 28,400 |
DAX 40 | 15,578 | Cons./ Bearish | 13,800 | 15,800 | 13,400 | 16,200 |
S&P 500 | 4,045 | Consolidation | 3,750 | 4,200 | 3,600 | 4,300 |
NASDAQ 100 | 12,290 | Consolidation | 11,000 | 12,700 | 10,500 | 13,300 |
DOW JONES | 33,390 | Consolidation | 31,200 | 34,500 | 30,200 | 35,000 |
TADAWUL | 10,227 | Consolidation | 10,000 | 11,200 | 9,700 | 11,700 |
FTSE ADX | 9,906 | Consolidation | 9,680 | 10,300 | 9,680 | 11,000 |
DFM | 3,420 | Consolidation | 3,270 | 3,500 | 3,100 | 3,730 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE100 index had a week up by +0.87%
For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible consolidation in the 7,900 area
Indicators
Positive week for the British index that has now broken the upside trendline in place since October 2022.
The upward extension is still very strong and we can expect a consolidation in the 7,900 for the week ahead. This area is important because of the confluence of 50MA (yellow line) as well as concentration of volume from end of January price action.
MACD and RSI have left overbought condition and keep weakening: negative divergence with the price action.
The risk-reward still remain unbalanced toward the downside and we’ll have to see how the price will behave on the 50MA.
We remain bearish on the FTSE100 given the over-extension to the upside and we rather wait for a first dip below 7,800.
Support at 7,400
Resistance at 8,050
FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB index had a week up by +3.21%
We are in favour of a consolidation in the 28,000 area.
Indicators
Positive week that fully recover recent weakness and seems willing to proceed higher.
MACD and RSI keep being in overbought area and in negative divergence with the price action
The risk/reward still remain unbalanced in favour of a possible market reversal if we assume 28,000 as the medium-term target.
In the short-medium term we keep a target to the downside at 26,000.
We remain neutral on the FTSEMIB, the upward move in recent months is positive and seem to mark a change of pace. At the same time, we believe it is necessary to wait for a reversal followed by consolidation before considering long setups.
Support at 24,800
Resistance at 27,900
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX index had a week up by +2.55%
We are in favour of a consolidation in the 15,400 area for the week ahead
Indicators
Positive week for the German index that seems willing to test resistance area at 15,800.
We remain skeptical on the index as we see internal weakening but a price action that keep pushing to the upside.
MACD and RSI are in negative divergence with the price action.
A plausible short-term target we believe to be 15,000 which can then play as a reversal point or first step in view of a more substantial retracement.
We don’t want to chase price action, therefore we remain neutral on the DAX40 and waiting for a break below 15,000
Support at 13,800
Resistance at 15,800
S&P500 (#SPX)
The S&P500 index had a week up by +1.90%
We are in favour of a possible continuation to 4,100
Indicators
Positive week that saw the price recovering the upward trendline in place since October 2022.
The last two trading days reported good volumes coming in which could push the index higher. At the same time it’s important to notice that the price didn’t go anywhere since November 2022: we are still consolidating between 3,900-4,100
MACD and RSI are neutral with a light upward momentum
Given the reversal on the 50MA (yellow line), we could see an upward move with target at 4,100 and 4,200
We are neutral on the S&P 500 with a bias toward the upside for the short term.
Support at 3,750
Resistance at 4,200
NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)
The NASDAQ 100 index had a week up by +2.68%
For the week ahead we are in favour of a possible continuation till 12,500-12,700
Indicators
Positive week for the Tech index that saw the price bouncing on the 50MA (yellow line).
The price action is promising and we could see a continuation till the resistance level.
MACD and RSI are back to neutral with an possible upward momentum.
Despite a short term positive upward move we prefer to remain neutral on the NASDAQ 100 as an ideal scenario could see a consolidation phase in the 11,500 area to then proceed higher for the medium-long term.
We are back to neutral on the Nasdaq.
Support at 11,000
Resistance at 12,700
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES index had a week up by +1.75%
We are in favour of a possible continuation to 34,000
Indicators
Positive week for the Industrial index as the price keep moving between the large trading range 32,800 - 34,400 in place since November 2022.
In the short term we could see a positive continuation however the lack of direction leave us very caution on the event of sudden sell off.
MACD and RSI are recovering ground and they could sustain the index on an upward move
We remain neutral on DJI with a short-term bias to the upside.
Support at 31,200
Resistance at 34,500
TADAWUL (#TASI)
TADAWUL index had a week up by +1.23%
We are in favour of a possible upward move till 10,500.
Indicators
Positive week for the Saudi index that saw the a perfect price reversal on the strong support level at 10,000.
MACD and RSI are leaving the oversold area and they are moving upwards together with the price action.
In the short term we see 10,500 and 10,750 as two possible targets. On a more technical level, the recent slow down of the 50MA that has started to flattening in recent weeks could pave the way for a price recovery.
Given the extension to the downside, especially on a weekly basis, we are more keen towards a price recovery.
We are bullish on the TADAWUL.
Support at 10,000
Resistance at 11,200
FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (#FADGI)
FTSE ADX index had a week up by +0.49%
For the week ahead we could see a regain of the 10,000 mark
Indicators
Positive week that sees the price approaching the bearish trendline in place since November 2022
Before considering a possible long positions, we believe the price should recover ground at least above the 10,000 level.
MACD and RSI are now very extended to the downside with the latter recovering slightly.
We are bullish on the FADGI but prefer to wait for an initial phase of consolidation which seems to be ongoing.
Support at 9,680
Resistance at 10,300
DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GERNAL INDEX (#DFMGI)
DFM index had a week up by +0.04%
For the week ahead we could see a consolidation on the 3,400 level.
Indicators
Neutral week that keep seeing the price consolidating on the intermediate support at 3,400
A possible consolidation on the 50MA at 3,360 could offer interesting long setups.
MACD and RSI are back at an almost neutral territory.
We remain neutral on the DFMGI and looking forward to a consolidation within the 3,400 area that could open the doors to a bullish medium term scenario.
Support at 3,270
Resistance at 3,500
OTB Global Investments
5 March 2023