Weekly market brief: 6 - 10 September 2021

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week slightly up + 0.25%.

For the coming week it could consolidate between 7,100 and 7,165

Indicators

This week the FTSE continued to move between the strong resistance area and the 50MA: only a break of one of these two levels will initiate strong moves in the short term.

MACD is falling along with an RSI that continues to fluctuate at the 50 level.

Given the lack of direction we can see the trendline from August 19th to September 3rd: a break of it could lead the index to retest 7,000.

Conversely, a close above the current resistance could take the FTSE 100 to 7,220

Support for 6.980

Resistance at 7,165

FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up + 0.26%

For the coming week we expect a consolidation of between 25,800 and 26,150

Indicators

The index after the strong bullish movements from 20 July to 13 August 2021 began a slight retracement that is now leading it to oscillate at the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

At the moment both options are available as it could be a consolidation before further upside, which would then take it to new highs. Conversely, it could even be a consolidation before retesting 25,600.

MACD seems to be recovering slightly but with both moving averages down while the RSI has been substantially flat during the week.

The break of either level at 25,800 or 26,150 will give a better understanding on future directions.

Support at 25,554

Resistance at 26.184

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week down -0.47%

For the week ahead, the price could move lower to 15,500

Indicators

The DAX retested the 50MA and then closed the week below the intermediate resistance at 15,900.

After breaking the trend line, the index reversed to the downside suggesting a loss of momentum.

MACD continues to be down, very close to 0. The RSI which broke the support level at 56 and, according to past moves, this led the index to test lower levels.

The divergence between price and indicators makes us remain cautious on the weekly moves by monitoring the intermediate levels of 15.900 and 15.736 where a break of the two leads to more marked swings.

At the moment we are more in favour of a bearish continuation to 15,500

Support for 15,736

Resistance at 16,050

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week up by + 0.43%.

For the week ahead, we expect a retrace to 4,480

Indicators

The index managed to consolidate above the 9MA with, however, candles of indecision. Looking at previous swings, this has generally resulted in a slight retracement in the short term

MACD, despite reaching a new high, was substantially flat hinting to a downward crossing.

RSI in strong divergence with the price is approaching the overbought area.

Given the proximity to the top of the Bollinger band, coupled with the distance from the 50MA, we expect a slight retracement to at least 4,480.

Support at 4,468

Resistance at 4.543

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up +1.05%

For the coming week, the index could trace back to 15,450 and then continue to 15,300

Indicators

The NASDAQ is now testing the bottom of the trendline broken in mid-August. The type of fluctuation always remains very similar, i.e. a continuous rebound on the 9MA.

We believe that the scenario has now changed slightly as the RSI has reached the overbought zone coupled with a MACD that is gradually losing momentum.

The trend is strongly bullish, and we do not believe there will be a trend reversal in the medium term, but a physiological retracement at least till the 50MA could offer good opportunities for long positions.

In the short term, we expect an initial retracement to 15,450

Support for 15.152

Resistance at 15,702

DOW JONES (#DJI) The DOW JONES had a week down by -0.24%

For the coming week, we expect a retracement to 35,096

Indicators

We believe the DOW JONES is forming a "rising wedge", a bearish reversal formation that could lead the index to test the current support.

MACD and RSI do not offer many information on what may be the direction in the short term, however we note a decrease in strength.

Lack of strong fluctuations combined with a narrowing of the Bolliger bands often lead to strong moves in either directions: we believe a strong break to the downside can give good long opportunities.

Support for 35,096

Resistance 35,455

OTB Global Investments

4 Settembre 2021