Financial index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
FTSE100 | 7.516 | Consolidation | 7.405 | 7.520 | 7.330 | 7.600 |
FTSEMIB | 26.604 | Consolidation | 26.000 | 26.750 | 25.475 | 27.406 |
DAX 40 | 15.100 | Cons./ Bullish | 15.040 | 15.450 | 14.815 | 15.736 |
S&P 500 | 4.500 | Cons./ Bullish | 4.376 | 4.535 | 4.245 | 4.720 |
NASDAQ 100 | 14.694 | Cons./ Bullish | 14.426 | 15.330 | 13.855 | 16.015 |
DOW JONES | 35.090 | Cons./ Bullish | 34.200 | 35.515 | 33.600 | 36.522 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week up + 0.16%
For the week we still remain in favor of a consolidation between 7,405 and 7,520
Indicators
The British index continues to fluctuate at the top of the uptrend channel in place since August 2021: having tested the 7,600 level again we could read it as a "double top" inversion formation from which we expect a slight downward pressure in the following week .
This thesis is supported by a negative divergence between price and indicators: in fact, if on the one hand we have a stable / rising price, on the other we have MACD (momentum) and RSI (relative strength) descending.
A lateralization between 7.405 and 7.520 could be the best scenario to allow a realignment of the indicators.
Support at 7.405
Resistance at 7,520
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week down -1.54%
For the week we could expect a consolidation of between 26,000 and 26,400
Indicators
The marked reversal at 27.406 followed by two bearish candles suggests a possible downward consolidation for the week ahead.
MACD and RSI both point downwards: the former still remains below 0 and the RSI seems to want to test again the negative trend line, broken previously.
As happened in December 2021, we could see a double test of the strong support at 26,000: note that the area between 25.475 and 26,000 has previously offered good entry points for buying positions.
Support to 26,000
Resistance at 26,750
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX ended the week down -2.43%
For the week ahead, we expect a possible recovery up to 15,400
Indicators
The German index has a certain regularity in its fluctuations, having been on a horizontal channel since May 2021.
The strong bearish candles of the last three days could slow down to the strong support at 15.040 - 14.815 as has happened in the past.
Looking at the MACD and RSI indicators, we can see a slight positive divergence in the second combined with a test of the bearish trendline carried out on Friday: this divergence suggests a possible recovery in strength in the following week.
Support for 15.040
Resistance at 15,450
S&P500 (#SPX)
The S & P 500 had a week up by + 1.56%
For the week ahead, the index could consolidate between 4,450 and 4,550
Indicators
After carrying out a backtest at the previous breaking point (~ 4,600), the SPX retraced to the 9-day average. Given the strong resistance level at 4.535 we believe that the index can consolidate before making strong swings in both directions.
The risk of a bearish continuation is still present, especially after the reversal at the breaking point.
To monitor how the index will come out of one of the levels between 4,450 and 4,550 to understand its direction in the short to medium term.
Support for 4,376
Resistance at 4,535
NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week up + 1.19%
For the week ahead, we expect a further upside test of the 15,000 - 15,300 area
Indicators
In our opinion, the oscillation is more regular: rebound on the support at 13.855 followed by a break of the level at 14.426 and subsequent back-test. We believe the regularity of the movements makes the levels stronger and more defined: in addition, in the last two days the price has managed to consolidate above the 9-day average.
MACD and RSI reflect a generally encouraging picture: we can see that both indicators have reversed to the upside after the strong pressures of the previous weeks. In particular, the RSI seems close to a break of the bearish trendline in place since November 2021.
We do not believe that in the short term the index will return to its previous highs, but a rise at least up to the 50-day average seems possible.
Support for 14.226
Resistance at 15,330
DOW JONES (#DJI)
The DOW JONES had a week up + 1.42%
For the week ahead, we expect a bullish continuation to 34,800 - 35,500
Indicators
Recovery of positive vigor after the strong bearish pressures of recent weeks: a further comforting note is the consolidation above the 9-day average, which developed during the month of January from dynamic resistance, hindering any possible extension.
Given the strong resistance level (and previous breaking point) at 35,515 we believe that the index could consolidate below this before strong swings in both directions.
An encouraging scenario is however given by the MACD and RSI indicators which have finally reversed to the upside.
A consolidation below the resistance level (and 50-day average) would avoid “fragile scenarios” of hikes not supported by internal indicators.
Support to 34,200
Resistance 35,515
OTB Global Investments
6 February 2022
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