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Weekly market brief: 7 - 11 March 2022


Financial index

Current price

Forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

​FTSE100

6,987

Cons. / Rialzo

6,980

7,170

6,815

7,295

FTSEMIB

22,465

Consolidamento

22,400

24,000

21,600

24,960

DAX 40

13,095

Cons./ Rialzo

13,000

14,150

12,500

14,815

S&P 500

4,329

Cons. / Rialzo

4,245

4,376

4,175

4,535

NASDAQ 100

14,189

Cons. / Rialzo

13.855

14.426

13.445

15.330

DOW JONES

34,059

Cons. / Rialzo

33.600

34.200

33.260

35.515

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week down -5.86%

For the week ahead, we are in favor of a gradual rise to 7,170


Indicators

Friday led to the strong break of the bullish channel in place since August 2021 and the English index has now positioned itself on the wide range 6.980 - 7.170: this range has a large volume of trading within it that we believe can bring the index to consolidate internally.


The MACD and RSI indicators are now both very extended to the downside and could lead the UKX to regain ground after the strong sell-off. In favor of a short-term rebound we also have the exit from the Bollinger bands.


If we look at previous swings, we can see that the FTSE100 has regularly fluctuated between 6.980 and 7.170 during the May - October 2021 period: we believe this range can once again provide from the consolidation area before future swings in both directions. A strong rebound could also see the index retest the previous breakout area at 7.240.


Support at 6,980

Resistance at 7.170



FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week down by -11.36%

For the week we could expect consolidation between 23,500 and 22,500


Indicators

After the strong downward swings we could expect a possible consolidation for the coming week: the main reason that makes us lean towards a consolidation rather than a continuation to the downside is the strong extension of the MACD and RSI indicators.


In particular, if we look at the RSI we realize that the indicator has reached the oversold range only two more times: in March 2020 and November 2020.

In the event that FTSEMIB manages to lateralize, we could subsequently witness a recovery of vigor: the medium-term target remains the bearish trendline in place since December 2021.


Support at 22,400

Resistance at 24,000



DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week down -8.35%

For the week ahead, we could see a recovery in vigor of up to 13,600


Indicators

After the strong bearish swings at the end of the week, we believe that the DAX can find support in the 13,000 area: a range that played the role of resistance between June - November 2020.


Given the strong downward extension, the index could regain ground up to at least 13,600: intermediate resistance.

Possible resumption of vigor also supported by the MACD and RSI indicators, extended to the downside and in oversold territory.


The medium-term target remains the bearish trendline in place since January 2022


Support at 13,000

Resistance at 14.150


S&P500 (#SPX)

The S & P 500 had a week down by -0.13%

For the coming week, the index confirms a possible consolidation between 4.300 - 4.400


Indicators

In order to better understand the short-medium term direction, we have drawn trendlines both on the index and on the relevant indicators.

The price, despite an excellent inversion at almost 4,100, continues to respect the bearish trendline in place since January 2022: only its overcoming, together with confirmations given by MACD and RSI, could lead to a change in trend.


MACD and RSI, if we compare the levels of the lows of January 24 and February 24, we notice an interesting positive divergence on the SPX. In particular for the RSI, we will wait for the upward break of the trendline to support the thesis of a short to medium term trend change.


Support at 4.245

Resistance at 4.376


NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up -1.85%

For the week ahead, we expect a possible consolidation between 13,800 - 14,200


Indicators

Slightly bearish scenario for the technological index given the strong downward volumes of the last two days: in fact, we can see the breaking of the flag in a very short period.


Price in contrast to MACD and RSI indicators, which in the face of a decreasing price are recording increasing lows.

In particular, we believe the second may be of significant importance: the break of the level of 50 could allude to a change in the short-medium term trend.


The positive divergence between price and indicators could be relevant if supported by an upward price especially at the beginning of the week "we identify prices 13,800 and 14,200 to better understand the short-term direction of the index. Exceeding either of the two could then lead to strong fluctuations in both directions.


Support at 13,855

Resistance at 14.426


DOW JONES (#DJI)

DOW JONES had a week up + 0.12%

For the week ahead, we expect a possible recovery of up to 34,000


Indicators

The consolidation of the DJI continues after having formed the third minimum: in particular we note the formation of a bullish flag, still respected despite the two negative days.


MACD and RSI also confirming the bearish moment, where in particular in the latter it is possible to notice a downward trend line still in place. At the same time, the MACD always wanting to cross to the upside


At the moment the index still remains in the balance between a bearish continuation or an upward reversal: we will use price confirmations and indicators to support one of the two theses: reaching 34,000, supported by internal indicators, could be a good sign of a possible change trend.


Support at 34,200

Resistance 35.515

OTB Global Investments

5 March 2022

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