Weekly market brief: 8 - 12 August 2022

Financial index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7,439	Consolidation	7,300	7,470	7,100	7,620
FTSEMIB	22,587	Consolidation	20,000	23,650	20,260	25,000
DAX 40	13,573	Consolidation	12,600	14,050	12,000	14,460
S&P 500	4,145	Consolidation	3,950	4,175	3,740	4,370
NASDAQ 100	13,207	Consolidation	12,400	13,500	11,100	14,255
DOW JONES	32,803	Consolidation	32,000	34,000	30,000	35,400

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up by + 0.22%

For the coming week we could see a consolidation in the area between 7,300 - 7,400

Indicators

Price action that continues to be just below the strong resistance at 7.470 with a series of indecision candles.

This price action seems to resemble those of April 2022, which were then followed by strong declines.

MACD and RSI are in our opinion the first indicators to signal a slowdown: both have in fact decreased their run and especially the second is now in a strong resistance area.

The strong upside of these indicators also makes us exclude short-term rises. A possible retracement could lead the index to initially retest the area of 7.350.

We remain positive on the FTSE100 but prefer to wait for retracements.

Support at 7,300

Resistance at 7.470

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up by + 0.81%

For the week to follow we could see a consolidation in the area of 22,000

Indicators

Week of indecision on the Italian index also due to the initial exit from the Bollinger Bands.

Despite the positive given by the break of the 50MA (yellow line), we believe the FTSEMIB may retrace slightly before moving higher.

There may be some downturns aimed at "closing the gaps" at 22,000 and 21,500.

MACD and RSI seem to want to signal a potential slowdown in price: the former sees its histograms decreasing and the latter is now on a strong resistance area.

We remain positive on the FTSEMIB but we believe that the index can retrace before continuing higher.

Support at 20,700

Resistance at 23,650

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up by + 0.67%

For the coming week we could see a consolidation in the area of 13,200-13,400

Indicators

Positive week for the German index which continues to advance upwards, oscillating between the 9MA (red line) and the upper part of the Bollinger band.

If on the one hand this price action is positive, on the other it could soon lead to rapid fall in price.

MACD and RSI are supporting the push between are also signalling a slight slowdown: the former is seeing a contraction of its histograms and the latter is now on a strong resistance area.

We remain positive on the DAX but await the occurrence of possible retracements.

Support at 12,600

Resistance at 14,050

S&P500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week up by + 0.36%

For the coming week we are in favor of a consolidation in the area of 4,000 - 4,050

Indicators

A week that saw the SPX moving near the strong resistance at 4,175. The strong stretches of the past few weeks make us exclude a break to the upside of this area and lean more towards a retracement to avoid situations of overbought and unsustainable growth.

MACD and RSI reflect the positivity in the index but are both signalling a slowdown: the first is showing a slight contraction of its histograms and the second is now in overbought territory.

We remain positive on the S&P500 but with an almost overbought RSI coupled with strong resistance at 4.175 we are cautious and in favour of a retracement.

Support at 3,950

Resistance at 4,175

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up by + 2.01%

For the coming week we believe there may be a retracement to the area of 12,600

Indicators

The Tech index continues to move near the top of the Bollinger band: while the strong bullish push is certainly positive, on the other we believe that a slight drop below the 9MA (red line) we believe it can lead the NDX to sharp but fast retracements.

We believe a possible target for such retracements can be identified at 12,600

MACD and RSI, while supporting the push of the index, now shift the risk-return in favour of a possible retracement. The MACD is now well above 0 but with shrinking histograms and the RSI is now near the overbought area.

We remain positive on the NASDAQ100 but awaiting for a possible retracement

Support at 12,400

Resistance at 13,500

DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES had a week up by + 0.38%

For the coming week we could see a possible retracement to the area of 32,200

Indicators

The index is now close to the intermediate resistance observed also in May-June 2022. Given the strong stretches of the past few weeks and the latest indecision candles, we believe we can see a slight retracement.

MACD and RSI seem to want to signal a negative divergence between price and indicators, as in the face of a slight decrease, the price has essentially remained unchanged.

MACD is experiencing a slight contraction of its histograms and the RSI continues to remain on the overbought area.

We remain positive on the DOW JONES but look forward to its retracement

Support at 32,000

Resistance 34,000

OTB Global Investments

7 August 2022