Weekly market brief: 8 - 12 November 2021

Index	Current price	Forecast	S1	R1	S2	R2
​FTSE100	7.304	Bearish/ Consol.	7.220	7.330	6.980	7.470
FTSEMIB	27.796	Bearish/ Consol.	26.750	27.870	26.184	28.700
DAX 40	16.054	Bearish/ Consol.	15.890	16.092	15.736	16.260
S&P 500	4.698	Bearish/ Consol.	4.600	4.720	4.550	4.800
NASDAQ 100	16.360	Bearish/ Consol.	15.700	16.450	15.152	16.600
DOW JONES	36.328	Bearish/ Consol.	35.772	36.482	35.455	36.800

S: Support R: Resistance

FTSE 100 (#UKX)

The FTSE 100 ended the week up + 0.61%

For the week we expect a retracement to at least 7,220

Indicators

Positive week for the British index which consolidated above the strong resistance area, now support, at 7,220. The breaking of this level is a further confirmation of the strong bullish trend that we believe will continue at least until the end of the year.

At the same time, before continuing to rise, we expect the index to retrace in the short term at least to the previous breakout level: even better scenario, it would see a decline to the 50MA.

Looking at the indicators, MACD appears to be about to cross to the downside followed by a diverging RSI with the price. In addition, the RSI failed to break through the strong resistance of 65, a sign of a slight loss of vigor.

Finally, we can hypothesize the formation of a rising wedge and this week's fluctuations could confirm this.

Support for 7,220

Resistance at 7,330

FTSEMIB (#FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB had a week up + 2.82%

For the week ahead, we could see a retracement to 27,300.

Indicators

The index managed to break through the strong resistance, now support, of 26,750 and for the last few weeks it has moved between the upper part of the Bollinger band and the 9MA.

MACD reached the level of 400 which, according to previous swings, represented a strong resistance even in situations of strong upside. RSI has reached the overbought area.

The trend is strongly bullish but at the moment, the risk / return ratio is more in favor of a slight decline.

Combining the strong upward extension along with the MACD and RSI indicators, we are in favor of an initial retracement at least to the 9MA. If it is exceeded, we would look at 26,900 as the next target.

Support for 26,750

Resistance at 26,870

DAX (#DAX)

The DAX ended the week up + 1.66%

For the week ahead, we expect a slight decline to 15,900

Indicators

The German index managed to break through the strong resistance level, now support, at 15,980: a sign that the upward trend is strongly in control and we believe it will continue for the last two months of the year.

At the same time, the breakout occurred with a "doji" candle and an "inverted hammer" which could signal a slight loss of vigor: not exactly the type of candles we would like to see on a strong break, despite the increase in volumes.

MACD is well positioned on the upside and shows no sign of strong trend reversals for the moment. It is more the RSI to signal an overbought situation: looking at past swings in March and April 2021, slight retracements might follow.

To conclude, we believe that the DAX will soon continue to rise also given the recent break with good volumes: an increase that will, in our opinion, see a slight retracement in order to bring the price to optimal buy levels.

Support for 15.980

Resistance at 16,092

S&P500 (#SPX)

The S&P 500 had a week up by + 1.68%

For the coming week, the index could retrace at least to 4,630

Indicators

The SPX, during the last weeks, had the 9MA that acted as support, confirming the strong uptrend.

In the short term, before continuing to rise, we believe that the index could retrace slightly: allowing to exit the overbought condition and reduce the distance from the 50MA.

Friday's "doji" candle could suggest a reversal figure, however confirmation will come only with Monday's candle.

MACD is well positioned to the upside and shows no sign of trend reversals for the moment.

At the same time, RSI is now strongly overbought, suggesting possible retracements as it has already done in the past.

Support for 4,600

Resistance at 4,720

NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)

The NASDAQ ended the week up + 3.18%

For the week ahead, we expect a retracement till 16,000

Indicators

Like most indices, the 9MA acted as support also for the NASDAQ.

MACD has now reached the area of 200-300 which in the past played a resistance area and subsequent loss of momentum.

RSI is now overbought and we believe this could lead to a slight retracement in the short term.

Combining the strong distance from the 9 and 50MA together with the positioning of the MACD and RSI indicators, we believe that the index must first retrace before continuing to rise: this is also confirmed by previous price actions.

Support at 15,700

Resistance at 16,450

DOW JONES (#DJI)

The DOW JONES had a week up + 0.90%

For the week ahead, we expect a retracement to at least 36,000

Indicators

After the quick "back-test" on 27 October, the index continued upwards supported by the 9MA.

The trend, as seen, remains strongly bullish but we believe it may retrace slightly before continuing to rise: Friday's candle could be the beginning of a reversal formation but it will only be the coming week to confirm it.

MACD is strongly on the rise but we are seeing a loss of momentum, in divergence with what have been the price action of the last week.

RSI has now reached the overbought area, the last time was on 10 May 2021 followed by strong bearish swings.

As already seen in the past, being the primary trend bullish, the retracements are strong and extended over a very short time frame: also in this case, we could expect a similar scenario.

A retracement would allow the moving averages to reconcile with the price and the RSI to return to optimal levels, in order to then proceed upwards for the end of the year.

Support for 35.722

Resistance 36,482

OTB Global Investments

6 November 2021