Financial Index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
​FTSE100 | 7,388 | Consolidation | 7,300 | 7,450 | 7,190 | 7,570 |
FTSEMIB | 23,475 | Consolidation | 22,900 | 24,000 | 22,345 | 25,000 |
DAX 40 | 13,675 | Consolidation | 13,600 | 14,050 | 13,260 | 14,460 |
S&P 500 | 4,123 | Cons./ Bullish | 4,132 | 4,385 | 3,980 | 4,535 |
NASDAQ 100 | 12,694 | Cons./ Bullish | 12,600 | 13,855 | 12,215 | 14,405 |
DOW JONES | 32,899 | Cons./ Bullish | 32,700 | 35,515 | 32,000 | 37,000 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week down -2.01%
For the week ahead we could see a consolidation between 7.400 - 7.350 followed by a reversal to the upside.
Indicators
In the short to medium term, we believe that the lateral price action in place since the beginning of 2022 between 7.300-7.600 can continue and any reversals resumed quickly, as happened in March.
For the week ahead, we might expect a consolidation at the bottom of that channel followed by a test of the 7.500-7.550 levels.
MACD and RSI still show a positive scenario, albeit slightly down: the former continues to remain above the 0 line (positive momentum) while the RSI is now below the level of 50 (bearish)
We remain neutral on the FTSE100 and believe that possible market reversals, also due to a recovery in GBP / USD (now at 1.23327), could offer attractive long opportunities.
Support at 7.300
Resistance at 7.450
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week down by -2.50%
For the week we could see a consolidation between 23.500 - 24.000
Indicators
After the rebound from the March 2022 reversal we believe that the FTSEMIB is retracing slightly to support levels that we identify in both the 24.000 and 23.200 area.
For the week ahead, we might expect a consolidation at the bottom at 23,200 to then, in our view, gradually move higher.
The bearish trendline, which coincides with the 50MA(yellow line), in existence since the beginning of 2022 continues to be respected and only its gradual overcoming will confirm a possible change in trend.
MACD and RSI show an encouraging scenario: the former is slightly below 0 (bullish momentum) and the RSI continues to respect the bullish trendline despite a gradual decline.
We are positive on the FTSEMIB but expect strong volatility in the short term which we believe will then lead to a gradual reversal to the upside.
Support at 22.900
Resistance at 24.000
DAX (#DAX)
The DAX ended the week down -2.37%
For the coming week we are in favour of a consolidation between 13.600 -13.800 with the possibility of moves to the upside in the short term.
Indicators
The index continues to fluctuate near the 50MA (yellow line) which is playing the role of moving resistance: we are in favour of a break to the upside in the short term but in the meantime we believe the index will first consolidate between 13.600 and 13.800.
MACD and RSI, in our opinion, support these scenario by being the first very close to crossing the 0 line upwards (positive momentum) and the second near the 50 line (bullish) even if slightly decreasing.
We remain positive on the DAX and believe that a gradual breakout of 13.800 could then lead to short to medium term gains.
Support at 13.600
Resistance at 14.050
S&P500 (#SPX)
The S&P 500 had a week down by -0.01%
For the week ahead, we are in favour of a recovery to at least 4.300
Indicators
A week of indecision, which ended with a "doji" candle hovering over the current support level.
We believe that the strong downward extensions of the past few weeks now shift the risk /reward ratio more in favour of a possible upside reversal rather than a continuation to the downside.
MACD and RSI are both very extended to the downside with the second in positive divergence with the price action.
We are positive on the S&P 500 and we believe that the index can consolidate between 4.050 and 4.150 and then reverse upwards
Support at 4.125
Resistance at 4.385
NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week down by -0.97%
For the week ahead we are in favour of a consolidation between 12.600-13.000 followed by a possible reversal to the upside
Indicators
Despite another bearish week, we believe that the index may soon begin a slow upward recovery: we believe this thesis is also supported by a slowdown in the weekly decline.
The swings of the past week continue to be above the bearish trendline which we believe to be a positive indicator.
MACD and RSI are both very extended to the downside, which makes us shift the risk /return ratio in favour of possible price recovery and short term trend reversals.
We also note a slight positive divergence between RSI and price
The price action on the trendline combined with the extension of internal indicators make us remain positive on the Nasdaq and in favour of a price recovery.
Support at 12.600
Resistance at 13.855
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES had a week down by -0.16%
For the week ahead, we expect a bullish recovery to at least 34.000
Indicators
We believe that the slowdown in bearish swings on a weekly basis is a good indicator of a possible recovery in the short term.
We believe we can find further confirmation in similarities with the price action in February where the DJI consolidated between 32.700 and 33.200 to then reversed upwards.
MACD and RSI are both negative, with the latter still above the bearish trendline and in slight positive divergence with the price.
The combination of the strong support level at 32.700 coupled with fairly downward extension of internal indicators make us more inclined towards a recovery of the index.
Support at 32.700
Resistance 35.515
OTB Global Investments
8 May 2022
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