Technical analysis
Price | € 18,49 | 52 weeks range | € 10,70 - € 18,87 |
Beta | 1.0 | Structure | Physical |
Benchmark | STOXX® Europe 600 Travel & Leisure | Dividend | Quarterly |
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Travel & Leisure UCITS ETF (ISIN: DE000A0H08S0) seeks to track the performance of an index composed of companies from the European travel and leisure sector
EXV9 after reaching the maximum value at € 26.00 began a prolonged decline which found its low in the recent fluctuations at € 16.00. We believe that the ETF is now in a consolidation phase to subsequently reverse to the upside.
Price
On the daily chart we can see a well-defined bearish channel in existence from March / April 2021: the numerous points of contact, both on the top and bottom of the channel, make the price swing more stable and predictable for progressive income on this instrument.
From the recent fluctuations we can see that
EXV9 stopped the bearish pressure at € 16.50: resistance range during the period March - October 2020
EXV9 is now at € 19.00, support during the period November 2020 - February 2021 and December 2021.
From these brief observations we can understand how the instrument is currently between two strong areas, from which it is likely to expect a slight consolidation given the presence of good volumes both above and below this intermediate range.
Range that also makes us understand that, once this consolidation phase has been overcome, the decline or rise could be relatively rapid.
On the weekly chart, the situation is very similar: in fact, we can see the clear price division even better.
Furthermore, from a point of view of pure price candle analysis, we identify that of the week just ended as a reversal to the upside: reversal candle on a strong resistance area (now support) is certainly a positive indicator for the short- middle term.
Indicators
Looking at the MACD and RSI indicators on the daily chart, the most important aspect we notice is the positive divergence between the lows of December 1, 2021 and March 4, 2022: at a sharply lower price, there were increasing lows in the internal indicators.
Positive divergence which, when it occurred in the past, led to a positive performance over the medium term.
On the weekly chart, we can see a bearish trend line on the RSI where its possible breach could signal a medium-term trend change.
Moving averages
In this case we have decided to take into consideration the average at 50 (yellow) and 200 (green) days in order to be able to hypothesize both short and medium-long term fluctuations.
Taking the current fluctuation, we note how the 50-day average plays the role of a watershed between both short-term drops and increases and medium-long term directional changes. Looking at previous fluctuations, we can in fact note that in November 2020, once the 50-day average was exceeded, there were then strong upward swings.
As for the 200-day average, at the moment it is very close to the top of the uptrend channel: consequently, we consider this average a possible short-medium term target. Once a change in trend has been reached and assumed, it is desirable to expect a lateral consolidation and then continue to rise.
Conclusions
At current price, we believe that the STOXX Europe 600 Travel & Leisure (FXC) ETF is an interesting tool in which to gradually enter and at subsequent price confirmations.
We believe that the current price range could be interesting to build an initial long-term position: a position that could be increased both on the upward price range to € 21-22.00 and in the case of reversals to € 16 - 17.00
Looking at past fluctuations, we identify € 25.00 as a medium-term conservative target: this price represents a very important resistance and strongly respected in previous years.
Possible breaks in the resistance, could then lead the ETF to € 28.00 and € 30.00 in the long term.
Entry range € 18,50 - 19,50
Target 1 € 25,00
Target 2 € 28,00
Stop loss € 14,00
Graphs
OTB Global investments
17 March 2022
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